if you're a curious person, crypto is a generalist's dream
you get to mix:
- hardware
- software
- cryptography
- economics
- game theory
- governance
- politics
- startups
- payments
- finance
- networks
- open source
- art
- culture
AI gonna kill all jobs derp!
Every single journalist will be labelling data for me for $10/hr and they will like it.
If you're REALLY good (Harvard UPenn etc, won top prizes), you can create fresh fine tuning instructions for $20/hr.
Move faster. Slowness anywhere justifies slowness everywhere.
2021 instead of 2022. This week instead of next week. Today instead of tomorrow.
Moving fast compounds so much more than people realize.
If you are sitting comfortably in a safe country and feel outraged about the horrible terrorism that happened to innocent israelis, and the terrible consequences that are now happening to innocent palestinians, there IS something you can do which isn't just hyping up shitposts and calling for the extermination of this or that people.
A big reason for why the terror attack was possible is obviously oil money funding, but also just the zero-sum mindset of conquest that drilling oil out of the ground instills on people (the resource curse).
Energy independence through technological solutions will have a huge impact on reducing terror, suffering and war in the world because it can break this pattern and bring us to a world where to achieve your aims, the only option is to build.
If you want to actually make a difference for peace then there are two technological solutions you can support, that will do so much more than any of the diplomatic or military solutions that have been tried over and over for decades.
1) Nuclear Energy
Nuclear energy is the tragically obvious technology that will promote peace because it can eliminate the zero sum dynamics created by natural gas and LNG, and also massively increase energy security of all countries in the world, increase desalination and other life saving technology. It is extremely safe, clean and cheap, but is held back by broken and evil regulatory sabotage perpetuated by various entrenched interests, including an unholy alliance between the extreme left and big fossil fuel.
Simply advocating for nuclear energy and help prove its political and popular viability will be a huge boost to energy indepence and prosperity for the whole world, and will directly make a real lasting difference in moving the world towards more peace and less terror.
Even better is working in nuclear, studying nuclear engineering, financing BWRX-300 newbuilds or other cool opportunities that are coming.
2) Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL)
HTL is the best bet for a technology than can straight up replace oil drilling. It is a simple method that uses water, heat and pressure to produce biocrude from any kind of material that contains carbon, including biowaste, sewage, regular garbage, plastic etc.
The biocrude is upgraded and refined into gas for cars, diesel for trucks and mining vehicles, kerosene for airplanes, bunker fuel for ships, and polymers for plastic.
All of this is net zero in co2 terms since it is just recycling the same organic carbon over and over.
The technology is not yet at commercial viability where it can beat crude oil drilled from the ground, but with more innovation, attention and massive scale it should be able to get there. The upside, beyond perpetual clean, cheap transport fuels, is that we can end the possibility of oil money being used to fund terrorism, wars and other destructive zero sum behaviour.
So if you really care why not direct all that energy towards something that actually will matter and make a difference?
Why is it that the companies with the highest gross margins and zero marginal costs are also, as a group, consistently unprofitable?
It just seems odd to me.
Over the past few years, one hypothesis I have can be summarized as follows: "Your marginal advantage is inversely correlated to your gross margin."
IOW, 90+% Gross Margin SaaS businesses are allowed to have such high gross margins in part because their advantage is more fleeting than other businesses. They have this advantage precisely so they find profitability as quick as possible.
But so many of these companies do the exact opposite!
This hypothesis is important, because a default assumption in valuations of software businesses has historically been that at some magical point in the future, investors will see a falling percentage of R&D and S+M Expense which will create the profit margins that should be possible at 80%+ GMs. Again, there are exceptions, but the rule trends towards long term unprofitability.
While high GMs and a lack of COGs may seem like the greatest business model of all time, I don't think its the free lunch people think it is.
In many cases it also unintentionally creates a higher probability of a funded competitor or a series of competitors that ultimately whittle away product advantage. When this happens, that future window of profitability will likely never come...
At the other end, the software businesses that seem to overcome this are not ones that eventually find profitability, per se, but those that are much more prudent up front about how to get out of a J-curve, seem to understand pricing and demand dynamics but also seem to have fewer competitors as a result of all of these.
What is the summary: huge GMs are your friend if you have them, but they aren't a substitute for growth at all costs and indeterminate periods of unprofitability.
Profitability matters and finding operating leverage as soon as practicable is going to increasingly be a necessary condition of high valuations. As more and more public companies are going to be tech companies, its only logical that investors will increasingly prefer the profitable ones over the unprofitable ones.
To achieve durable, sustainable and equitable growth, we must think of Bharat as 800+ districts, each with 1.5-3 million people. Nations such as Estonia, part of the EU, have about the same population, and are doing very well.
District level R&D clusters are a key foundation.
For the first time in my living memory, the place you want to be if you want to be at the cutting edge distribution of the most transformational technologies of this decade, is Microsoft, not Google.
A question I have been asking institutional investors in both private and public markets is - if they could enter and exit their holdings at will like retail investors(which they cannot today), would they have actually sat through the ride of their best-performing holdings? 1/2