Raynar81

Private investor, focusing on stable, growing businesses, but at a reasonable price. PE, FCF, EV/EBITDA. DMs open!

[Wolf of Harcourt Street @wolfofharcourt]

$ADYEN H1 2026 Earnings in Charts

Shares rose 16% on results.

Here are 7 standout visuals from the quarter:

1. Processed Volume

+24%, fastest growth rate since H1 2024.

[mavix @mavix_leon]

Toyokumo Q2 '26 results:

▫️Sales +32%
▫️EBITDA +22%
▫️EBIT +23%
▫️EBIT margin of 41.9% (vs. 44.8%)
▫️Net income +23%
▫️ARR +21.9%
▫️Churn rate of 0.81%
✅Increased Guidance:
*Sales up by 3.4%
*EBITDA up by 9.2%
*EBIT up by 10.5%
*Net income up by 7.7%

[Raynar81 @Raynar81]

@IggyOnInvesting Thanks, will have a look.

For me personally:
I stopped clicking on substack links, after a majority has gone paid. So maybe mention "full" article and 1-2 examples of the content (market comparison, valuation model,..)
Since I am subscribed, I would have noticed in 1-2 weeks ;)

[Raynar81 @Raynar81]

@BaldwinIVKing1 @Wolke7Bewohner @AdrianKowollik We all agree that $SNT.WA performed really well, the stock and the company.
The question is, at what valuation should you sell, even if it's going according to plan.
Let's say EPS of 20 next year, results in PE 18.5
That's not excessive, but "reasonable". PE 25 would be max IMO.

[Raynar81 @Raynar81]

@tristanwaine Good luck Tristan and all the best.

[Raynar81 @Raynar81]

@tristanwaine ..not yet included invoicing and ai agents. Curious what these will bring in the future.

But prices were also increased up to 17%.

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

An Open Letter to the Chair of the BoD of Humm Group Limited

https://t.co/Ay1jWf3bHh

[David Orr @orrdavid]

Been reviewing Japanese longs all morning.

Look at this example Tanabe Engineering $1828. It now trades for 7x earnings with 16% return on capital. It has a 4.5% dividend yield. They tripled operating income in a decade.

There are so many companies like this, from unrelated industries, that peaked exactly at the end of February.

This type of small cap Japanese value / GARP stock is in a bear market. This one had a 25% drawdown.

[Price to Tangible Bruce @Tangible_Bruce]

An overused Berkshire Hathaway analogy, or a worthy description? This one now up:

[Philipp Haas - investresearch @PhilippHaas_ir]

$4058 / Toyokumo might be one of the most overlooked SaaS compounders in Japan.
Tiny market cap. Recurring revenue. High margins. Founder-led. Quietly dominating a niche with mission-critical software.
Deep dive here:
https://t.co/bnQBTvLJ22

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

$HUM.AX update 🚨🚨

Thank you for all the support. 🙏✊🏻✊🏻

https://t.co/om1N8GzfW9

[SteadyCompounder @SteadyComp]

Avant Group ($3836.T) is a high quality compounder trading around 12x FCF with zero debt. At a current price of roughly 1,333 JPY, the stock has been penalized 25 percent in the last 5 years despite the business being stronger than ever.

[Raynar81 @Raynar81]

@evfcfaddict I guess you added back Rovi, reaction seems to be overblown.

My trio in the field is Rovi, Eurofins and Sartorius St. Planning to hold all of them long term.

[Stock.Logging @stock_logging]

$SOFW $SOFW.TA
Good Q1/26 numbers:

➢ Revenue +46% YoY
➢ Gross Profit +44% YoY
➢ EBIT: $1,63m (Q1/25: -$0,96m loss)
➢ Net Profit: $1,26m (Q1/25: -$1,11m loss)
➢74,98% Gross Margin, 6,67% EBIT Margin
➢ Pulses (usage based) revenue: +56% YoY
➢ Pulses as % of revenue: 45%

My 3rd best performing stock this year (up 8% today and +56% YTD), I'm staying long.

Link to the presentation: https://t.co/rgTl6VOFd1

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

$HUM.AX update - Friday night news dump, the hallmark of every shareholder-friendly BoD 🧐

https://t.co/fMryovvLG9

The language here is very important. What did we learn?

1) The incumbent BoD was in receipt of a valuation where 77c - the current $CCP.AX NBIO level - was below the low end of fair value (per a formal valuation), in October. Despite knowing this they allowed Abercrombie multiple more weeks of DD...at 58c. When the deal dropped they made no attempt to tell the market that Abercrombie's bid was ~40% below the low end of fair value. That alone is a shameful sequence and representative of a hopelessly captive Board.

2) Abercrombie language in this document is misleading. It says TAG is currently 'unlikely to support the Credit Corp scheme proposal, which is the same as the initial view he communicated to Credit Corp shortly following the receipt of its proposal.'

But what did AA actually say to Credit Corp upon receipt of the proposal? According to the Takeovers Panel, he said the proposal was 'of no interest to him' and 'he hoped not too much time and money is wasted on the proposal'.

Imo 'unlikely' is a good deal less legally certain than his prior statement. Why the disparity?

3) BoD sending mixed messages on 77c. It is not 'compelling' and needs to be improved but they are not saying they won't necessarily reject it (even at 77c).

Overall - Board change has never been more urgent. Thank you for your ongoing support. We will win and fix this company!

https://t.co/DreCEd47JZ

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

@ejohnno extremely disappointing and misleading article re $HUM.AX Humm Group in the Australian today. Surprised you published without even seeking my comment or seeking to check 'facts' as your article contains numerous errors. I believe fact-checking or offering subjects the right to comment is basic journalistic practice.

Here are some of the more egregious errors:

Here are some of the more egregious errors in the article:
'Raper was given an official warning about his campaigning around his Takeovers Panel application' - Takeovers Panel proceedings are confidential, so you are reporting hearsay from within the Panel proceedings. Notwithstanding that, I did NOT receive any warning, formal or otherwise, for any supposed campaigning. Mr Abercrombie alleged canvassing - allegations that were based upon no evidence, and were strongly refuted. Furthermore - I did NOT make the Takeovers Panel application (that was made by Akat Investments).

'the Panel has ordered the share votes to be neutralised ahead of this week’s planned EGM' - the Panel has ordered Abercrombie's 3% acquired in December, cannot be voted; not 'neutralised', whatever that means. This finding was a direct result of the unacceptable circumstances in which Abercrombie acquired those shares. Also, the EGM has been delayed and will NOT be held this week (this is all in the Takeover Panel public documents).

'Abercrombie has the final veto if the bigger Credit Corp ultimately decides to push ahead with a takeover offer...On its own, the stake is enough to block any takeover that emerges, friendly or hostile.' This is not true. Abercrombie's ability to block a transaction only applies to a Scheme of Arrangement (requiring 75% support), NOT a takeover offer with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. This is EXACTLY the type of structure Credit Corp proposed, as part of their two-track offer, and why the Takeovers Panel decided Abercrombie's conduct was unacceptable in refusing to engage - precisely because a Credit Corp proposal structure as a Takeover, not a Scheme, is otherwise able to be consummated even around Abercrombie. You are thus giving a misleading picture of the reality of the situation by stating otherwise.
'Still, it might all be a moot point if Credit Corp comes back to the market with a bid, given it needs to find a way to secure Abercrombie’s other 26.4 per cent.' See my comment above - again this is highly misleading and inaccurate, the structure of the deal clearly contemplates a Takeover, not a Scheme. There is no compulsion upon Credit Corp (or any bidder in this situation) securing Abercrombie's 26% stake given this.

'The independent directors must also disclose whether it has sought an updated valuation, a tacit acknowledgment that market conditions have deteriorated markedly since November.' This is highly speculative and a distortion of the facts. The Takeovers Panel ordered the disclosure of an updated valuation because the last one was done in mid-June (in the context of the TAG proposal), which is almost a year old. Any company in any situation - whether the market environment had changed or not - would update their valuation as part of a new deal process. To suggest it is purely because market conditions have 'deteriorated markedly' is completely inappropriate. As you will be aware, the company is bound by continuous disclosure obligations - such that any material deterioration in its financials would have had to be disclosed to the market. The company has made no such disclosure. On the contrary, competitors (like HMY and PLT) have reported strong results.

The net sum of your erroneous reporting is to give the impression that 1) I am somehow a bad actor (when the Panel has concluded, rather, that the Company, and Mr Abercrombie, have been at significant fault); 2) the Company is somehow in a much worse state than a few months ago (when nothing could be further from the truth); and 3) Credit Corp has no hope of acquiring Humm without Mr Abercrombie's sign-off (completely wrong on the facts).

IN the interests of full and fair disclosure I will be forwarding this critique to your editor, and also circulating it on Twitter. In the future, please seek to check your facts and seek comment from your article subjects before you publish. Thank you.

https://t.co/51qzlljv4D

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

$HUM.AX Humm Group Limited

https://t.co/9RZTlJj2So

[Raynar81 @Raynar81]

MTU Aero Engines $MTX.DE
One of my bigger positions, some points:
interesting long term play
temporary ST costs soon behind
improving margins
valuation discount to peers
insider buys
very long term "runway" ;)

[Kerrisdale Capital @KerrisdaleCap]

We’re long MTU Aero Engines, $MTX in Germany. Report at https://t.co/JZ8gt8HBpR. Disruption from the GTF powder metal issue has been priced as permanent impairment, leaving the stock at an unjustified ~40% discount to peers. We see €545 fair value, implying 67-69% upside 1/9

[Raynar81 @Raynar81]

@govro12 Toyokumo, Tobila Systems, ASIRO, Bridge Consulting, Avant, Miroku Jyoho, NexTone, Being Holdings, Robot Payment