This is gonna upset a lot of people:
But TA is astrology for traders.
It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.
Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.
$SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499.
It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced.
$AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8.
it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others.
If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA.
But for determining the actual upside... nah
People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first.
It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on.
Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at.
So for entry points, sure you can use TA.
For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me.
I have high conviction in that statement.
Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK)
1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net.
And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures.
Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others.
There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC.
2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG.
When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume.
$TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year.
They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand.
3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others.
When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see.
There's probably something markets are not pricing in.
4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm.
Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028.
But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029.
Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP?
5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain.
However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages.
It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #).
I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off....
Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year.
There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio.
Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
最近看到很多对比AI和Crypto行业的讨论,大部分是拉AI踩Crypto,而且往往来自币圈业内人士,作为勉强算两个领域都涉足过的人,也分享一下我的主观看法吧。
无可质疑,AI确实是现在最炙手可热,也很可能是智力密度最高的行业,互联网和科技巨头都在拼命卷,传统行业也争先恐后想踏上这条船,生怕被AI取代,面对AI这个全世界奋勇争先的行业,Crypto相形见绌,也是情理之中,但比不过第一名不代表就是垃圾,同样还有很多行业,相比Crypto机会更少、前景更惨淡。
能理解大家对Crypto的失望,因为很多曾经被寄予厚望的赛道,不但没有获得Mass Adoption,还逐渐式微甚至消亡了,例如NFT、元宇宙、GameFi等等,都引起过圈内震动甚至破圈,最终还是偃旗息鼓。走到如今,是点错了科技树发展歪了也好,是行业领袖没有起到应尽责任也罢,归根结底,Crypto只是一个不到20年的行业,很多产物本身就带有实验性质,如今也还远没有到判死刑的地步。
而且,Crypto也贡献了一些经过被真实验证过的应用和方向,例如稳定币在跨境支付与转移、B2B结算等场景的使用,规模日益增大的RWA,以及作为数字黄金的全球市值前20资产BTC等等,所以也不用过于悲观。
我也看到有拿Hyperliquid举例,说明这个周期在Crypto创业艰难的,这同样有些过于严苛了。Hyperliquid作为全世界人均营收最高的公司,在创立短短几年内,达到了38B的估值,2025全年营收844M。作为对比,Cursor作为有史以来成长速度最快的初创公司,在2025年11月融资的估值是29.3B,最新披露的年化收入是2B,正在寻求50B估值的融资。如果达到Hyperliquid的高度才能被定义为成功,那即使在AI界能取得这样成就的团队也是凤毛麟角。
最重要的是,对于大部分普通人而言,AI行业是否蓬勃发展,跟你是否能享受到行业红利,其实关系不大,而这恰好是Crypto最大的优势。拿Jeff的话来说,“如果你是一名ChatGPT的早期使用者,OpenAI不会让你变富,而在加密,你只需要早期使用Hyperliquid,就能拿到巨额空投”。
举两个自身的例子。第一个,很多朋友知道我本硕都是985计算机专业,也在大厂做过算法实习生,可以说我的智力和学历胜过90%的同龄人,但是在AI行业,我面对的是1%甚至0.1%的顶尖人才,毫无优势可言。而且我已经算是拿到了步入AI行业的敲门砖,而大部分人可能因为数理能力、教育、成长经历等原因,压根无法真正进入AI行业,那么即使他们知道AI会蓬勃发展,又有什么意义呢?恐怕最后最直接的方式依然是卖课或是上门代装小龙虾,但这本质是营销和把握风口的能力,换个行业一样跑的通,与AI没有太大关系。
第二个,我从2月中旬开始了解Pre-IPO或者说私募股权的投资机会,也是希望在AI赛道配置一些资产敞口,但结果是到现在都没有完成一个合适的Deal。相比大部分人,我在这件事上已经算有优势了,手握自有资金,也有一定行业知名度,能有相对多的渠道了解信息,接触deal,但结果是,即使单个项目我愿意投1~3M,在传统金融这个金额完全排不上桌,没有主动权,只能被动等待合适的机会,并且现在各大机构也都对AI行业非常Fomo,排着队打款投资,普通人只能看着估值一轮轮水涨船高。更不用说这其中还涉及到各种费用对比、渠道是否靠谱、法律文件和投资身份是否符合对方需求等一系列问题。
这就回到上面所说的,Crypto行业在价值分配结构上存在的巨大优势,让普通人有机会仅仅作为参与者,也能享受到行业红利。
在传统科技行业,用户要么为产品付费,要么成为产品本身,也就是所谓的“If you're not paying for the product, you are the product”,但最终享受到经济回报的并非用户,而是股东。而在币圈,因为空投的存在,使得用户在贡献数据的同时,也获得了潜在享受价值的可能。
同样,Crypto行业的时间轴相比其他行业是极端压缩的,在传统路径,一家公司从种子轮到IPO可能需要5~10年,普通人要到IPO后才有机会购买股票,很难享受到早期的成长回报。而在Crypto,这个时间被压缩到了1~3年,并且用户有机会通过早期参与项目,获得奖励。
此外,Crypto拥有Permissionless的特性,以及对全球流动性的聚集效应,使它成为了没有任何一家赌场可以比拟的最佳投机场所,而币圈特有的信息传播路径,又让散户有了靠信息差获利的机会。最典型的例子就是$Trump,现任美国总统亲自发行的Meme币,给了所有人在$0.2公平购买的机会,在两天内涨幅超过300倍,其中任何一点,放在传统金融都是压根不可能的。
值得注意的是,这些特性很多时候是一把双刃剑,让币圈充斥着骗局、空气币和没有价值的项目。天下没有免费的午餐,币圈就是一个给普通人提供极大方差的场所,有人在这里一夜暴富,也有人在这里倾家荡产。
回过头来,当初放弃AI行业,在币圈摸爬滚打了4年的我,会如何面对这波AI浪潮呢?我的选择是,一方面继续保持对币圈的关注,因为这依然是目前最可能出现奇迹的行业,另一方面将部分精力从币圈抽出来,去探索AI、美股、科技相关的投资机会,因为目前币圈整体的流动性和关注度确实处于熊市周期,没有必要投入大量时间,而股市,依然是我认为作为普通人最有机会吃到AI红利的地方。
God's eye view 24-hour replay of Operation Epic Fury.
The Iran strikes kicked off and I set an AI agent swarm loose to record every OSINT signal I could find before the caches cleared. Built a full 4D reconstruction in WorldView.
I can scrub through minute by minute and watch the whole thing unfold on a 3D globe:
> Airspace clearing over Tehran
> Ground strike coordinates locking in
> Severe GPS interference blinding the region
> EO and SAR satellites making passes over the strike zone
> No-fly zones locking down 9 countries
> Shipping fleets scrambling at the Strait of Hormuz
It's pretty amazing how complete of a picture you can build without "proprietary data fusion" -- one dev with public signals and a love for computer graphics and geospatial intelligence.
Thank you for all the love on my last post. Dropping WorldView in April. This my friends is just the beginning.
I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out.
It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive.
And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it.
https://t.co/YK8E11GcDU