Rezoan Ahmed Shuvro

Data Scientist

[Greg Abbott @GregAbbott_TX]

The Texas grid just served its largest winter power load ever.

No problem.

The Texas power grid is now far more powerful and resilient than ever.

And, we are adding much more power this year.

https://t.co/5iuytmqB3z via @expressnews

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Can you believe that universities with tens of billions in endowments were siphoning off 60% of research award money for “overhead”?

What a ripoff!

[Sara Eisen @SaraEisen]

Top chart of the year: 10 year Treasury yield. The Fed started cutting rates in Sept and market rates have shot up since. Market fighting the Fed

[Bindu Reddy @bindureddy]

Apparently, some people on X are opposed to "highly skilled" immigrants in the US!! 😂😂

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

These people helped build o1, Gemini, Claude, Abacus, etc. If you don't use their skills, there will be NO utopia, AGI, and AI-building-AI.

There is ONE THING the US is #1 in - Technological innovation. We will lose status if we kick the skilled immigrants out 😂😂

[Rezoan Ahmed Shuvro @RezoanShuvro]

@sama Want to execute codes in canvas. Going back and forth between chatgpt and vscode is a pain.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Thoughts following the Election

Don’t overcomplicate things, stay bullish. A short-term pullback would be statistically probable given the surge following the election to technically short-term overbought levels. However, I am looking to add risk on such an event given the bullish factors discussed below:
1. During Trump’s first term the S&P CAGR was 14%
a. China & Europe have tariff headwinds
b. US consumer staples probably lag on tariffs
c. Less regulation is good for financials, energy, tech
2. Don’t Fight the Fed
a. Fed started cutting w/ 50 bps w/ more cuts in 2025
b. Neutral Fed Funds rate is likely in the 3-4% range
c. Other Central banks are also cutting aggressively
3. Fiscal policy is stimulative
a. Deficit will initially go up from an already high 7-8%
(largest for non-war time & non recessionary period)
b. Corporate tax cuts will help EPS
4. There is no recession on the near-term horizon
a. GDP growth is ~3%
b. Unemployment is near 4%
c. More job openings than people unemployed
5. AI is deflationary (technology substitution for labor)
6. China is finally trying to stimulate their economy
7. Seasonality: Stocks are in best 3 months of the year

I continue to like an equal weighted basket of stocks. They outperformed during the election week in 2016 and also from then through year-end. From the day before the 2016 Election through year-end, the last time President Trump won, the S&P gained 5% led by the R2K +14%, +17% Financials, +8% Industrials, +9% Energy. Information Technology lagged up +2% through year-end following the election versus leading up until that point, +10% YTD till 11/7/16 vs the S&P +4%.

During this past election week, the S&P gained 4.7% and the leading sectors much like 4 years ago also included Financials (+5.5%), Industrial (+5.9%) and Energy (+6.2%). The Information Technology (+5.4%) subsector should also benefit from less regulation & more support of the biggest US tech companies against their global competitors. The involvement of Elon Musk in the new administration should be helpful in that regard.

Given a more business friendly political environment following the election, riskier assets have also done well including:
1) small cap equities (R2K +9% last week)
2) crypto related assets (Bitcoin +11% last week)
3) $TSLA (+29% last week)

My favorite Megacap Tech names through year-end post election & CQ3 results are $NVDA $AMZN $GOOGL.

$NVDA: The Nvidia CEO in early October said “The demand for Blackwell is insane. Everybody wants to have the most and everybody wants to be first.” Elon Musk who will have influence in the new US government is a big believer in AI and Nvidia is the single biggest enabler of AI technology. Longer-term, I still worry about an AI digestion phase by mid-2025 but see a strong stock till then.

$AMZN: Amazon has seen AWS revenue growth accelerate from 12% to 19% growth over the past five quarters. E-commerce margins have more room to expand while high margin ad growth on Prime Video continues. Amazon has momentum going into their holiday quarter.

$GOOGL: Q3 demand for all 3 of their major products (search, YouTube and Google Cloud) was strong & probably continues in Q4 due to election ad spend. Google appears to have less risk of being broken up under Trump while $META may have to deal with Trump not wanting to ban TikTok in the US. Google has a low 22x PE versus $META at 26x. However, longer-term, I worry about Google’s nearly 90% market search market eroding due to heavy competition from AI driven answer engines. YouTube ad growth is also likely to be impacted longer-term by the expansion of ad supported video streaming tiers especially from $NFLX, $AMZN and $DIS. Also President Trump does not believe Google treats him or Republicans fairly and wants to fix that.

However, one thing I have been watching closely is the surge in 10-year treasury yields. This occurred following 1) the initial 50 bps cut by the Fed on 9/18 and 2) the articulation of inflationary policies by both US Presidential candidates over the past couple of months. The 10 year treasury yields surged following the initial 50 bps cut by the Fed from 3.65% on 9/17 to an intra-day high of 4.48 following the election. The simultaneous surge in both the stock market and yields though implies growth prospects are also improving versus just inflation picking up.

The CPI surge from 1.4% to 7.0% in 2021 did not derail the 27% rally in the S&P that year. Unfortunately, 2022 was a different story with a 19% decline in the S&P as CPI continued to climb to a peak of 9.1%. Investors and the Fed finally came to grips with the fact that inflation was not transitory in early 2022. I ultimately believe there may be a resurgence in inflation by late 2025 and the real trouble for the stock market may be in 2026. But that is a long way from here.

In summary, with Central banks cutting aggressively and governments stimulating even more, I think stock markets remain strong through the first half of 2025.

As always, the key will be to remain intellectually flexible and data dependent. As Niels Bohr, the Nobel laureate in Physics, said: “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!”

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Can we consider this prediction realized yet?

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

The phenomenon of index funds, managing other people’s money, who say they lack the competence to pick stocks but possess the competence to redesign society, is under-studied.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Nothing has created more wealth in the past decade than technologies banned in China. #Bitcoin

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@waitbutwhy @poweredbyart Exactly

[Rezoan Ahmed Shuvro @RezoanShuvro]

@ARKInvest since the Pearson correlation between ARK funds are very high, as an investor why should someone buy the other funds instead of only concentrating on the ARKK?

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

My plan to fix climate change:

1. Invest billions and partner w great companies to build products that eliminate emissions.

2. Reinvest all capital+profits to build America’s own vertically integrated climate supply chain.

3. Breathe clean air, high five my kids.

[Dave Ramsey @DaveRamsey]

Winning with money is 80 percent behavior and only 20 percent head knowledge. What to do isn't the problem; doing it is.

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Buffett once said: “It’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in market.”

There should be a step down in capital gains tax for individuals as they hold stocks. 20% per year decrease in cap gains tax. 0% after a five year hold period.

Incentivize long term behavior.

[david friedberg @friedberg]

everything is going to decentralize. this battle isn’t going away... the rate of conflict between distributed and centralized control is escalating.

[Joseph Carlson @joecarlsonshow]

Tech companies have been "protecting" us from disinformation using censorship for years now. Now they are "protecting" us from financial loss by closing positions and removing ticker symbols. "protection" is starting to feel a lot like "control".

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

In moments of uncertainty, when courage and strength are required, you find out who the true corporatist scumbags are.

[Joe Biden @JoeBiden]

It’s a new day in America.

[Lou Dobbs @LouDobbs]

Betraying American Workers. Sen. Mike Lee fails for the fourth time to pass his green card giveaway bill. #S386 #MAGA #AmericaFirst #Dobbs

[Marquette Electrical & Computer Engineering Dept. @MarquetteECE]

Chemical sensors, you ask? Dr. Josse knows the answers. Here he is @ Discovery Day where he spoke with prospective students about the academics & lifestyle of an #MUEngineer. Join us for the next one! Learn more about what makes @MarquetteECE unique. https://t.co/6k4hlaLVUb