Here's the GRAF model as of Monday morning, which actually would be a better scenario for Louisiana. Notice how the GRAF shows the storm taking a slight dip to the south before moving to Louisiana. Of course, this would keep most of the impacts farther south as well. Let's hope!
Gonna be honest: this Gulf swirl is getting interestin'. It's not what I'd call gorgeous workmanship, but 1) cloud pattern shows definite arcing, 2) low center is turning W (meaning more time over Gulf), & 3) computer models have gotten more aggressive. Folks in FL, AL, MS, & LA need to watch this—& some models suggest TX threat down the road. Me: heading back to the Bay Sunday.
A broad area of low pressure off the west coast of Florida has been designated as Invest 91L, which the NHC has now given a 50% chance of development.
Tropical system or not, this will bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast in the coming days as precipitable water values exceed 2”.