Stuart Jenkins

Postdoc at Oxford Net Zero, University of Oxford. Studying climate science and policy, trends in RFs, carbon budgets, CTBO. Views my own.

[Oxford Smith School @TheSmithSchool]

@stv_smth answers: Is carbon capture and storage a crucial climate technology?
#OxfordatCOP28 @CO2REhub @OxfordNetZero @NetZeroTracker

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

its funny how few lessons have been learned...

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

Shocking that if you build the infrastructure people will use it. Lessons for high speed rail @RishiSunak?

https://t.co/Itxl9CSUZD

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@CarbonGap @CarbonBalanceIn

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

Who pays for net zero? Carbon Gap and Carbon Balance have written a report on the EU's Net Zero Industry Act. Plenty of "The EU should..."s in there to ensure CO2 storage is delivered on time and paid for by those who benefit from the fossil fuel industry

https://t.co/MU9VAT7raX

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@AndrewDessler @Revkin @CarbonBrief I agree though -- I see little reason to expect Tonga had any appreciable contribution to recent SST extremes. Much more likely an ENSO(+other IV) influenced event with long-term GHG forcing compounding to push extremes further out.

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@AndrewDessler @Revkin @CarbonBrief The initial response may be negative as sulphate aerosol would quickly form with excess water vapour. This sulphate forcing effect is visible in satellite obs over last year, but it's largely worn off now, leaving excess water vapour and positive forcing. Effect is small though..

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

Shocking that if you build the infrastructure people will use it. Lessons for high speed rail @RishiSunak?

https://t.co/Itxl9CSUZD

[margriet kuijper @MargrietKuijper]

Wow! the EU is proposing to make producers responsible for developing storage capacity on time!!

Sounds a lot like.....Carbon Takeback Obligation.

@janpaulvansoest @myrtleboat @HughHelferty @paul_zakkour @StuartAJenkins

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

Petition to dub music behind this 🙋‍♂️ Stairway to heaven? Road to hell is probably more appropriate...

[Dr. Robert Rohde @RARohde]

If it is not literally the warmest year ever, someone will complain that global warming has stopped.

Year-to-year fluctuations are a normal part of the ongoing global warming trend. Don't be distracted by the noise.

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@AndrewIWilliams @AndrewDessler Stratospheric cooling and surface warming aren't necessarily inconsistent with one another either... https://t.co/egOM5IZEKG.

[Carbon Brief @CarbonBrief]

NEW – Tonga volcano eruption raises ‘imminent’ risk of temporary 1.5C breach | @AyeshaTandon w/ comment from @StuartAJenkins @linosellitto

Read here: https://t.co/6lyzzMMubq

[Oxford Net Zero @OxfordNetZero]

Climate goals can be achieved at affordable cost, if fossil fuel producers pay for carbon clear up

Read this new study led by Oxford Net Zero's Myles Allen and @StuartAJenkins, with @PACEmissions

https://t.co/Tn1QwyQxwA

[Bob Ward @ret_ward]

Another debunking of the climate change denial and blatant misrepresentation of a scientific study by @NetZeroWatch. https://t.co/6bDvtV5cPP

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@LeonSimons8 @Peters_Glen @aipartanen @AndrewHMacDoug1 @rustneversleepz @benmsanderson @froeltho @PFriedling @4C_H2020 Yeah of course it does, but you'll get dramatic reductions in the ~50% of those pollutants which are co-released by fossil energy use in an ambitious mitigation scenario. Hence the fact that basically every ambitious mitigation scenario ERF trend is negative after net zero in AR6

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@LeonSimons8 @Peters_Glen @aipartanen @AndrewHMacDoug1 @rustneversleepz @benmsanderson @froeltho @PFriedling @4C_H2020 This forcing trajectory shape is the standard output of the AR6 chapter 7 assessment (for high ambition scenario). The non-CO2 ERF does tend to decline after 2030 in these scenarios. Would be quite unusual to achieve net zero CO2 but have very positive net non-CO2 ERF trend?

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@LeonSimons8 @Peters_Glen @aipartanen @AndrewHMacDoug1 @rustneversleepz @benmsanderson @froeltho @PFriedling @4C_H2020 For this study we simply chose a non-CO2 ERF scenario which matched the ambition in the CO2 emissions scenario, hence SSP1-19. Obviously non-CO2 trajectory impacts findings, but that wasn't the focus of the study (this time...) 👀

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@curryja Hi @curryja, author of the paper here. If you had read the paper, you'd know it is about attributing causes of recent acceleration in warming (from +0.2C/decade to +0.3C/decade), and not attributing the whole warming trend. Paper says (at least) +0.2C/decade is caused by humans

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@DC_Borborygmus @wxbywilliams The longer term +0.2C/decade warming rate is very likely caused by human influences, which is CO2 dominated. The additional +0.1C/decade since 2010 is ~ +0.05C\decade from aerosol emissions reductions, and ~ +0.05C\decade from ENSO-related variability signals

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@DC_Borborygmus @wxbywilliams Yes, happy to help! The article @wxbywilliams refers to is nonsense, and misinterprets the results of our research. We find the recent *acceleration* in rate of warming, from +0.2C/decade to +0.3C/decade is likely 50:50 caused by internal variability and human influences (1/2)

[Stuart Jenkins @StuartAJenkins]

@Josh_Gabbatiss Isn't the point that Blenheim owns vast swathes of land and doesn't need to burden one pocket of Oxfordshire with the full houseprice-rocking burden of delivering 'an Oxfordshire worth of solar power'? Blenheim own parkland isn't even included!