Brad Van Arnum

Amateur political/elections analyst. Music lover. TCNJ, CMU, and Rutgers alum. Big fan of New Jersey.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@colleenodea I unofficially called it for Hamawy an hour ago, haha. Even the first batch of votes that came in heavily favored him.

Arguably, he won the moment that Bernie/AOC endorsed him. That helped tremendously in such a crowded field.

Looking forward to your coverage of all this! :)

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

The #Platner news is a reminder of how much variance there could be this fall with the Senate.

I can imagine a world where Dems flip just one seat (North Carolina), but I can also see them winning four more (Maine, Alaska, Texas, and Ohio). Even Nebraska and Iowa are wildcards.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@SeanTrende A big congrats to Judd! Very happy for all of you.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@ProfNickStephan @RickPildes Looking forward to reading it!

I'm just thankful that we have roughly 30 or so competitive House seats this fall. That's obviously very low by historical standards, but it's better than nothing (and I suspect it will only be lower next decade).

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@PadresFan84 @SidKhurana3607 Funny enough, Morris and Hunterdon County are nearly tied at about 57% apiece, though Morris does happen to be a free tenths of a percent higher. So, you would be correct!

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

Today, I have a new post about the #midterms, which are now just six months away. I see the House as almost certain to flip, and the Senate as likely to end up as 50-50. Also, Democrats will probably flip at least one gubernatorial race.

Agree/disagree?

https://t.co/JI8sl4TRsl

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@SteveKornacki Very happy to hear that there's a real interest in coverage that focuses on election results without the punditry! I do think our politics would be somewhat better if more folks spent time understanding and appreciating election data. Punditry just doesn't add much.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@wildlypolitical As recently as 2012, the Electoral College favored Dems. I'd much rather see the party focus on class and make states like MI/PA/WI reliably blue instead of wasting time with the compact.

Parties have agency, and Dems just haven't been trying to win back the voters they've lost.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

Glad to see Swalwell resigning. It's hard to believe he ran for president in 2020.

I'm weary of these California Democrats who seem to think they're God's gift to the world. Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris kind of fall into that category, too. They're just not that remarkable.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@mbaharaeen I'm so sorry about The Liberal Patriot closing. I was shocked when I saw that news. I really hope you continue writing on Substack! We need voices like yours.

Btw, I sometimes forget that you're a big part of the reason I started my own Substack. Just want to thank you again. :)

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@DaveAHopkins Very good point about other countries, and I really appreciate your responding! Happy to see that you're still blogging, and here's looking forward to your next piece. :)

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@willmonknj Wasn't obvious to some of us, haha.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@michelle_marki As a fellow TCNJ grad, I just wanted to thank you for the amazing work you do putting these videos together! And this one in particular is really helpful, as I'm in the market right now for good yields on savings accounts (I don't trust stocks at all, haha).

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@SteveKornacki Hunterdon is maybe the most astonishing county-level result in NJ tonight, IMO. Hunterdon's usually redder downballot, and Harris lost it by 7 points, so it's pretty shocking to see it even closer than that.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@ryanmatsumoto1 Ryan, you're back! You've been missed.

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@ProfNickStephan I love the intent here, and competition is vital, but IMO it has to be balanced with communities of interest. In that map, the 2nd ceases to be a Madison-based district, and the 7th combines rural northern WI with distant suburbs. Here's a map I just made: https://t.co/iOaT3f6pEF

[Brad Van Arnum @Sunweb52]

@LauraRBelin I tweeted to Kevin asking him to reconsider, but it's a long shot. I think candidates really overestimate how much money matters. If he didn't spend a dime, he'd still probably get 45% of the vote against Hinson. Kevin was a good fit for the 2nd...it's just a real shame. :(