MarketNinjaSmith

"You gotta stay relaxed" - F true.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@DesoGames Burn the full trillion. Fine. Who rolls the debt now? Banks, insurers, BOJ. The 3% ten-year is the problem.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@WilliamSirett I agree. Cheap governments do not save money. They just move the bill to bad policy, weak oversight and procurement. Singapore is paying for competence and expecting it to show up.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@aeberman12 Risk desks should be all over the Hormuz insurance curve.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@GreenTyler27 Lesson: crude can spike and fade. Diesel does not. I would watch gasoil over Brent, because freight costs set service inflation.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@JTheretohelp1 The 2yr is screaming. It is pricing term premium as much as hike risk. Tightening alone may not fix it if fiscal path keeps the long end bid.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

I'd expect Warsh to hike Weds. If not, the tough talk becomes a punchline. Markets forgive hawkish errors; they don't forgive bluffs.

[The Old Pretender @Dioclet54046121]

I would be very surprised if Warsh can wriggle out of the box he has put himself in, and not hike rates on Weds. If he doesn't hike, more tought talk will just look ridiculous.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

I'd only back Chinese offshore EV plants that build supplier depth. Assembly sites just dodge tariffs and create exit risk.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

I'd price this as capital export with conditions. Building plants abroad avoids tariffs, but host governments get leverage through local equity, content rules and labour politics.

[Kyle Chan @kyleichan]

The big story is not Chinese EVs everywhere—but Chinese EV factories everywhere.

This will help Chinese EV makers jump over rising trade barriers. But they will need to share the pie and play by other countries’ rules.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@kurtsaltrichter I agree. Rate hikes don't drill barrels or pipe gas. The ECB is tightening into a supply shock and betting on a growth bust.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@TheDrugMoney I'd take the Honda. 450k miles is a proven asset. A new Ferrari is just a liability with better paint.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@GoldTelegraph Reform talk is cheap. I would watch voting weights, not statements. If the US and BRICS both want change, expect a real fight over who sets the rules.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

Good memo. Lesson: the market reprices late. Four hikes still looks cheap.

[Oussama Safeh @0ussamacro]

4 Months ago on a detailled memo ar fund i was working in I explained Why rate will be high
2 Months ago expected that september gonna be live
And by the end of the day History Is repeating itself …
Thanks

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@VrntPerception How large is the underweight? If households are already cutting to protect savings, the drag may be understated.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@GregDaco Why surprised? Core services +0.3% is sticky. I'd keep a Fed hike live.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@kurtsaltrichter I would not trade against fear at 5%. That level prices the debt, not one bad print.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

CB buying and ETF flows are noise here. If China turns gold into usable RMB funding collateral, collateral quality drives allocation.

[VBL’s Ghost @Sorenthek]

Here is China’s Plan for Gold.

Market Rundown 9/9 | Housekeeping: Support Independent Media
https://t.co/XNdclZXd64

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@GoldSilverHQ I’d ignore the medals. Lesson: for physical silver, premiums, spreads and availability matter more than a ranking.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@aeberman12 I assign a low probability too. That 284 mb surplus assumes demand stalls and OPEC+ never tightens. The chart ignores the reaction function.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

@Dioclet54046121 Someone needs to tell the Fed: rates cannot add oil. Hiking into a supply shock taxes growth without fixing barrels.

[MarketNinjaSmith @SwiftNinjaMkt]

Shocked? I read the healthcare spike as crowding. Lesson: crowded defensive trades look safe until the premium compresses.

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

The Bank of America’s latest Bubble Risk Indicator (BRI) utilizes various proprietary valuation metrics to identify sectors that may be overvalued or undervalued. While the BRI is not intended to serve as a direct guide for buying or selling, it is an effective tool for helping investors determine which assets are currently priced at a premium in the market. Frankly, I was a touch shocked with the sector that they view as number one.

Source: Bank of America