The $VIX weekly chart has generated a new oversold upturn, a signal that has often preceded increases in volatility. This suggests that sentiment has shifted and warrants closer attention to risk management
#fairleadstrategies
Textbook example of a "late-stage throw-over". Price closes above a well rising trendline late in the game. This signals trend exhaustion, a buying climax or blowoff top. SP Weekly chart:
Given that Samsung & SK Hynix have now exceeded 50% of $EWY, there will need to be some "rebalancing" to satisfy US Diversification requirements by end of month @IBDinvestors@marketsurge charts here:
https://t.co/XW54gpjWXm
Similar to today, South Korea's weakness very well could metastasize to US Semis and ripple across Memory/Semis near-term. A bounce attempt into end of week/early next should satisfy wave counts/DeMark on SMH.. Volume today on selling reached the highest since early April- Most of Semis/Memory/Optical are growing to be sub-par on a 1-month risk/reward
Let's hope the sherpas have those ropes tied as when the air gets thin in the death zone, well.. just ask Krakauer. i won't spoil the fun
We are in a Power Trend. My data back to 1987 shows the first 3% Min Pullback starts approx. Day 13-15 and is 4.2-4.7% pullback over 5-7 days. Could be helpful for setting expectations.
Always know your best stock you are playing for a monster move.......it's your sitting that makes the difference!
https://t.co/KXLO2hAjk8
#stocks $qqq $spy $sqq #nasdaq #powertrend
As remarkable as these data points are, we must remember that this is a top-heavy market with top-heavy earnings. So, there is less than meets the eye here as the broader market is producing more typical earnings breadth. Nevertheless, this is the AI capex boom in action, as the next chart illustrates. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, capex as a percentage of revenues has doubled to 9%, while revenues themselves have also grown.
$SPY would have to decline to 725.04 and $QQQ to 682.77 to fill this morning’s gaps. How quickly they get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is. We already know it’s pretty darn strong, but unfilled gaps at new highs are relatively rare.
Bad news for sell in May crowd. $VIX volatility index VVIX is now below where it started 2026
Volatility cooling after an extended elevated phase, especially with $SPX near ATHs, has been bullish.
4 weeks later, S&P 500 was higher 9/10 times with a median gain of +2.2%.
Q1 earnings season is underway and so far, so good. With 137 companies reporting, 79% are beating estimates by an average of 1019 bps. This is in line with the robust performance of the past four quarters, which suggests that the earnings boom is not losing any steam.
FOMC decision tomorrow. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady.
Here’s how the S&P 500 has performed following #FOMC rate decisions.
The prior return of -1.36% on the announcement day was the fourth worst since the beginning of this bull market.
S&P 500 just logged its 8th all time high this year, with 4 in April.
Since 1950, this is only the 15th time $SPX posted 4+ April ATHs.
Every year finished higher, with average gains of 21.8%, implying 8,340 by year end, well above our target of 8,100 .
More good news for the bulls.
S&P 500 up >3% back to back weeks is historically quite bullish.
Above average returns across the board and higher a year later 86.7% of the time.
🇺🇸 S&P 500
Six days up in a row and a 6% surge: history says that combo often bodes well for US stocks, with median 12-month gains of 18% since 1950, enough to keep the bulls smiling
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6p
h/t @RyanDetrick $spx #spx
Update: a year ago, the $VIX ended the week at 45.3, one of its highest weekly closes in history. The S&P 500 has rallied 31% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when others were fearful. $SPX
The CG ratio's most recent 52-week low was March 3, 2026. It's been 22 trading days with no new low and a successful retest on March 18. Historically, when this ratio stops making new lows, SPY has been positive 7/7 times over the following 3 months (avg +18.7%) and 6 months (avg +24.9%). The signal doesn't predict when the ratio bottoms. It tells you to pay attention once it has. Right now, the March 3 low is holding but not yet confirmed. A break below 0.001092 resets the clock. A continued hold suggests the macro turn may already be underway. $SPY $QQQ $VIX
$SPX: Smart money confidence is optimistic while dumb money is neutral. The Fear & Greed Index continues at Extreme Fear. Green circles highlight increase in smart money confidence and bullish moves that followed. The bounce could have more fuel. $SPY