Look Left 🇺🇦

Black Swans come out of left field. Securities trader guided by common sense, simplicity. cpa mba wfu uofm uva hbs

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

Jul 8, '22
S&P 500 Fair Value (FV)

$222.78 S&P 500 Forward 12 mo earnings est
2.88% 10 Yr Tsry
6.38% Earnings yield (10 yr Tsry + 3.5% LT premium)

$222.78 / 6.38% = 3491 FV

(3899 S&P 500 now - 3491 FV) / 3491 FV = 11.7% overvalued.

#SPFV

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Matthew Smith has spent the last 18 months modeling every well, pipeline, storage facility, and power plant in the American natural gas system.

His conclusion is that the US is heading toward a natural gas shortage with no precedent, beginning in 2028.

By 2030, he believes we could exhaust our working natural gas storage entirely.

The fuel everyone in AI is counting on, and that everyone assumes is abundant, is not there.

And because gas sets the price of electricity in most of the country, he argues Americans will pay for the shortage in their power bills.

Matthew has worked in energy markets for over 20 years and is the CIO of Chronometer Partners.

This is his second time on the show, and he's one of my favorite people to talk to about energy.

We discuss:
- Why the bottleneck is moving from power to fuel
- Why we can't just shut off exports
- 2028 as the inflection point
- Large-scale nuclear v. SMRs
- Who wins, who loses, and what can still be done

Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:30 What Drives the Deficit
11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up
20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis
25:05 Winners and Losers
29:00 Nuclear and Solar
33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill
37:20 AI’s Next Shortage
45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes
51:15 The Coming Gas Knife Fight

[Jamie Bonkiewicz @JamieBonkiewicz]

So let me get this straight. Taylor Farms lettuce gets linked to the cyclospora outbreak. The CEO visits the White House and donates to Trump. Then the FDA says the positive finding was a “false positive.”

Nothing suspicious about that at all.

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

Shell predicts LNG supply will be in shortfall later this decade

[Ed Finley–Richardson @ed_fin]

Clarkson's: “MR eco earnings have increased to $31,600/day (+49.5% w/w), and LR2 eco earnings are at $31,900/day (+8.6% w/w). We anticipate a significant tightening of the product tanker market in the near future.”
$ASC $TRMD $STNG $HAFNI $INSW

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@The_Real_Fly https://t.co/7DBbfSIpUj

[Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski]

MAGA Family Values

[Comical Lavrov 🦈 @BaghdadLavrov]

@IAPonomarenko If Ukraine had ATACMS, military targets in Crimea would be leveled too

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@leonidragozin Maybe open your eyes?

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@FirstSquawk Stop selling.

[Post Business @washpostbiz]

Americans Are Talking Themselves Into a Recession https://t.co/sZhdX3ihn0

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@Jkylebass Let just nuke each other, ask questions later.

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@MIL_STD Too many systems.
Too much complexity.

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@MIL_STD Ok. But, what does it do? How is it better than existing equipment?

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@rgoodlaw I have lost faith in the American Justice system.

The rich and powerful can rape, steal, murder, and go unpunished.

[FxMacro @fxmacro]

CDC finds weed killer tied to cancer in over 80 pct of US urine samples - wtf is the FDA , EPA doing about this https://t.co/FoJfPDHwBP

[investingLive @investingLive_]

IEA head Birol says the worst of the energy crisis has not yet been seen
https://t.co/XWCtffaNgq

[Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture]

“It is not necessary to think in terms of pushing Russian forces right back to their own border, although some pushing is required, but to continue to undermine the capabilities and reputation of the Russian military.” A fine essay from ⁦@LawDavF⁩ https://t.co/ZMNAvrYtgT

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@Liberalfiberal @KyivIndependent Yes. She does. Significant.

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@KyivIndependent Yermak needs to go. There is zero excuse for picking a fight with an elected representative of your primary ally.

Fire him and move on.

[Look Left 🇺🇦 @TraderNewsFeed]

@RALee85 HIMARS meltdown ...
https://t.co/SSNo6cyPmM

[🇺🇦⚓️DDorcemus⚔🇺🇦 @LordAdmiral7558]

@Angry_Staffer Russian forces right now...