Nick Femia

Union-side labor lawyer. Baseball enthusiast.

[Nick Femia @Yankeeboy61]

@MayorBowser https://t.co/Pe0GhXDhhP

[Nicholas Kristof @NickKristof]

It looks as if the White House will play the Iran deal as "no cash" and ending the nuclear program. That's misleading because it apparently unfreezes assets and money is fungible, and because there is apparently no nuclear deal. Basically, it seems that Iran gets rewards for reopening the Strait, and then we'll try to figure things out. It's all very well to say that after 60 days we can resume sanctions; then Iran can resume its closure of the Strait. My fear is that Trump in 60 days will be ready to move on and will reach a bad nuclear deal without adequate inspections or prompt dilution of HEU, and that Iran will then be in a position to take the North Korean path of acquiring not just threshold status but actual nuclear weapons. Bottom line is instead of regime change, Trump and Netanyahu have strengthened the Iran regime and put the IRGC in charge.

[Empire State Building @EmpireStateBldg]

BING BONG - KNICKS ARE THE NBA CHAMPS

ORANGE AND BLUE LIGHTS ALL NIGHT

SEE THE LIGHTS LIVE: https://t.co/hz2FQavwPl

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

The growing rapprochement between the UAE and Iran undermines a key assumption that has shaped much of the Israeli debate over the past year, namely, that Gulf states would move closer to Israel, expand the Abraham Accords, or even support a more confrontational regional posture toward Tehran in the wake of the war.

In reality, many Gulf states are deeply frustrated with Israel. From their perspective, they were drawn into a regional crisis that imposed significant economic and security costs on them. Since the strikes on Qatar, many in the Gulf increasingly view Israel not as a source of stability, but as a potential driver of regional escalation.

As a result, there is little prospect of major new normalization steps with Israel absent dramatic progress on the Palestinian issue. Gulf leaders understand that the Iranian regime is not going anywhere, and they see no strategic benefit in trying to isolate Tehran or push it into a corner.

This does not mean that Gulf states have become naïve about Iran. They remain deeply aware of the challenges and threats posed by Tehran. However, their preferred strategy is de-escalation and coexistence rather than confrontation. From their perspective, maintaining channels of communication with Iran is a necessity, not a choice.

#IranWar‌

[Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la]

The deal taking shape with Iran is significantly worse than the JCPOA. I don't say that lightly. Here is why:

1) The JCPOA was one comprehensive, binding agreement. This is a two-stage interim framework. End the war now, then 60 days of nuclear talks. We are trading hard limits for a promise to keep talking.

2) Missiles and proxies are gone. The leaked 14-point MOU (Mehr, IRNA) keeps Iran's missile program and its support for Hezbollah off the agenda entirely. The standing critique of the JCPOA was that it left those out. This deal does the same and calls it progress.

3) No handover of enriched uranium. Under the JCPOA Iran shipped almost its entire stockpile out of the country. Here Iran keeps roughly 400 kg of 60% material. Its fate is punted into the 60-day window. That is a moratorium, not a rollback.

4) The enrichment pause is unsettled. Trump wants 20 years. Iran floated 5 (CNN). The JCPOA locked in 15 years of caps with IAEA cameras and 24-day inspection access. We have none of that on paper yet.

5) We pay up front. Oil sanctions lifted. Around $24 to $25 billion in frozen assets released, part of it immediately. Reconstruction figures up to $300 billion floated in Iranian press. In return Iran gives an interim ceasefire and a promise.

6) Hormuz reopens on Iran's terms. Araghchi says the strait will not return to how it ran before the war. Service fees, Iranian arrangements. This war handed Iran more leverage over the strait, not less.

We went to war and may walk away with less than Obama got in 2015. Caveat: these terms come from leaks and Iranian media. Nothing is signed. But if it signs as described, it is the weaker deal.

[Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la]

Netanyahu has decided to accept the Iranian deal. Security officials are despondent and see it as a disaster. Ynet brings some high level quotes from them:

1) A senior Israeli official said "Nobody is happy with this. We understand it is not good for us, and that it harms Israeli interests. What is troubling is that Israel cannot influence it. Its voice is not being heard."

2) The anger at Trump is palpable.: "Trump screwed us, we took the hit. We're no longer in the loop and can't really influence anything."

3) Israelis fear Iran will be economically revived: "They've blown money on the Iranians, who are getting everything they want. They'll build a missile corps, and we'll have to pour money into interceptors." Israel sees oil revenue flowing back into the exact capabilities the war was meant to degrade.

4) They don't believe a deal will adequately deal with the nuclear issue: "The real test of the deal is removing the uranium and destroying it. If that doesn't happen, the sense of a bad deal will turn into something more concrete."

5) They fear this will embolden Iran: "Iran has smelled that it can achieve things by force, and it will use that against its neighbors and against us."

6) The deepest worry is not military. It is perception. After months of direct fire, Iran is seen across the region as the side that took the pressure and did not fold: "the regional working assumption will be that it was signed under Iranian pressure and American capitulation, rather than the reverse."

Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel.

[Ro Khanna @RoKhanna]

Musk is worth more than South Africa’s GDP. @BernieSanders and I proposed a 5% tax on people like him.

In one year, it could fund:
- free public college & trade school
-$10/day childcare
- Special-needs education nationwide

Wealth inequality is the moral failure of our time.

[Peter Beinart @PeterBeinart]

More eloquently than almost anyone else in Washington, @tparsi warned that this war against Iran would be a catastrophe. His reward? The Trump administration is reportedly considering deporting him. This is how America makes itself both stupid and unfree.

Anyone who cares about intelligent debate, freedom and basic decency must speak now.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Trump is getting fleeced by Iran

The deal:
• $24B cash + oil sales
• Just 60 days of open Hormuz
Iran pockets $30B+ in two months

Day 61, Iran can close Hormuz again, and repeat the extortion

Massive loss for Trump—Huge win for Iran

[Acyn @Acyn]

Buttigieg: We sit in a in a country that's got the wrong number of people on the Supreme Court, possibly the wrong number of representatives in the House of Representatives. And by the way, when you consider the disenfranchisement of the people of DC, we have the wrong number of states in the United States

[Acyn @Acyn]

Buttigieg: We didn't know it, but we've all been trusting our lives to the restraint of whoever the president might be. And now we have a president who is completely unrestrained. And so the only answer to that is a functioning Congress.

It turns out we do not have a functioning Congress. The House of Representatives is not representative. One of the most important organs of our democracy is not democratic.

They say, "Oh, no. We're not manipulating the map to disempower black people. We're manipulating the map to disempower Democrats who happen to be black people.”

So, the time has come to make it impossible to manipulate the map for any reason and just have fair maps.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Trump's "I love the inflation" is one of the most politically tone deaf statements I've ever heard.

No prez before him ever had a -50 pt or worse net approval in an inflation poll. Trump's done it 8+ times.

Trump's the only prez to ever hit 80% disapproval on gas prices.

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

The best way to anticipate the future is to find out what Benjamin Netanyahu wants and then assume it's just a matter of time before Trump does it. Hard to go wrong with that method. I can't think of a time when it would have failed.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Trump is now threatening to seize control of Iran’s oil

He long said US should have taken Iraq’s oil in 2003

Didn’t work in Venezuela and won’t in Iran

Trump can destroy but that’s not same as control.

We are heading toward a major crisis for the world economy and long war

[Marco Foster @MarcoFoster_]

James Carville: “Right now we’ve got to win and we’ve got to win everywhere because the worst Democrat is 100x better than the best Republican. That’s just a fact. We’re not looking for perfection, we’re just looking to stop this son of a bitch from taking the whole country down”

[Rep. Scott Peters @RepScottPeters]

When the President said, "I don't think about Americans' financial situation," we should believe him. Everything is getting more expensive as his war-of-choice goes on.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

The return to war from President Trump in a clear admission that the blockade has failed disastrously.

If “time was on our side”, we would have ZERO incentive to risk irreversible damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, or the potential closing of the Bab al-Mandeb.

Zero.

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

I think it’s really under-appreciated that a core fact of American politics is Republicans have this extreme outlier view of health care that no other major political party in the world tries to uphold.

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

All we did was send our military to the other side of the world, bombed Iran's bridges and elementary schools, then imposed a military blockade to crush their economy and population.

Then, out of nowhere, these deranged monsters shoot one of our peaceful liberatory helicopters.

These people only understand force! They're like from the 8th century.

[Anthony Scaramucci @Scaramucci]

Trump said something outside a press gaggle that I don’t think enough people caught.

A reporter called him out on the corruption. He gave three responses.

1. I have the right to do it.
2. He’s not stealing that much. A billion or two billion dollars. Not that much money. Classic Trump.
3. People don’t care.

That’s the permission structure. Our collective apathy is what they’re using to justify everything happening in Washington right now.

Please stand up and prove him wrong.

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

Trump is pretty open-minded, but the one thing he won't abide are men who cheat on their wives and are accused of sexual assault.