MK

[MK @Zaungast01]

@evfcfaddict Ouch!

[MK @Zaungast01]

@Fuertner Sorry, ich hab den falschen tweet geschickt.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@Fuertner https://t.co/BiyHLdUxFy

[George Friedman @George_Friedman]

Before the midterm elections, I had several GPF subscribers asking if the Republicans lose control of the House or Senate, whether it will make much difference to the U.S.’s geopolitical actions globally.

My field is geopolitics, and this is in a way a political question. However, in my work I have encountered an oddity in the United States, a demonstrable, consistent set of cycles. One is socio-economic, with a crisis occurring every 50 years, with the last one taking place in the 1970s. I also found a consistent cycle of institutional crises every 80 years, with the last one climaxing about 80 years ago, in 1945.

I wrote a book on this, “The Next 100 Years,” forecasting that the 2020s would be the first time both cycles shifted at roughly the same time. It would therefore be a more disrupted cycle, with the disruption and restructuring of American society, economy and institutions creating massive tension. That was published in 2009. In a later book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” I forecast that the election of 2028 would signal the beginning of the end of both cycles and a radically new, increasingly stable and significantly different socio-economic and institutional system. Since then I have developed some thoughts on why the United States reinvents itself with such regularity, but I have not fully thought them out yet.

In my view politics is the outcome of these cycles and not the cause of them. I think we are nearing the end of the instability that emerged during the first part of the decade, and will stabilize toward the end of the decade, beginning after 2028. So I do not look at the political tension we are experiencing as the cause of the current crisis, but as an outcome of the cyclical crisis. The U.S. has spent this decade reinventing itself, a disruptive and at times unpleasant experience, but one that is nearing its end, that will not be fully in place until nearer the end of the decade.

As I have said, I am still working through the foundations of these cycles, but the political unrest is in my mind the product of the cycle and in that sense a clearing of the table in preparation for the beginning of a new and significantly different cycle. The political instability, along with the social, economic and institutional instability, is the effect, not the driver of this cyclical process.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@Fuertner Er sieht das anders.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@Fuertner https://t.co/gWiIm0JrtP

[George Friedman @George_Friedman]

I believe we are in a period so wracked by tensions, both national and regional, that it’s necessary to search to see if there is a commonality driving them, even if the tensions present themselves very differently. The United States – the world’s only superpower – is approaching the midterm elections, which have evinced more interparty (and intraparty) stress than usual. Europe is plagued by widespread protests that have, at times, turned violent.

The Middle East, a region where a degree of tension is the norm, is experiencing both the regular tensions between Sunnis and Shiites and profound tensions beyond the norm, while the Gulf states’ level of stress has soared given the war in Iran. That conflict has bled into parts of Africa, particularly around the Horn, and virtually every other region of the world because of its impact on trade and energy prices. India is experiencing political and social unrest, especially in the northeast, over basic political processes.

In China, at last week’s Communist Party plenum, some 33 members of the party were expelled, and five of the seven members of the Military Committee – China’s facsimile of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – have also been expelled. According to Freedom House reports, there is also growing unrest among Chinese workers over economic conditions. And last but not least, there is still a war in Ukraine that has wrecked Russia’s economy (to say nothing of the physical damage inflicted on both sides).

Individually, none of these events is all that unique. Taken together, what is of interest is not that these things are happening in these countries but that so many countries and regions are experiencing them at roughly the same time. That there is apparently no single cause behind these tensions – that they have their own origins and unique manifestations – is what makes them so intriguing.

My full analysis is available to read and share at @GPFutures: https://t.co/x1eSfkGNio

[MK @Zaungast01]

@evfcfaddict @BerkelKip @EightTrack180 @SebKrog @AmsterdamStocks @gezzogero @david_katunaric @dsmoak98 @JoeValue @finance_schmidt @ValueIsaac2002 @Thijsbuitenhuis Crash in ....
Congrats.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@Fuertner Welche Einheit soll die y-Achse darstellen?

[MK @Zaungast01]

@WolfOfOakville And still too much.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@CJ0pp3l Love to see this.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@kamilkazani And very unpopular. He made a series of bad decissions in WWI.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@evfcfaddict https://t.co/xIkMhKxEI8

[MK @Zaungast01]

@Der_Boersianer Das passt schon dass er jetzt auf pro russisch macht. Bestärkt nur die Kontraindikator-These. Ausserdem, war da nicht was mit endgültig weg von Twitter?

[MK @Zaungast01]

@CJ0pp3l What is vms for you? Vortex or venture Minerals? TY

[MK @Zaungast01]

@dipinvest I like it.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@evfcfaddict Mir hat dein neues Haus ganz gut gefallen.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@evfcfaddict Welcome back.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@SixSigmaCapital No, the straight was open befor the war.

[MK @Zaungast01]

@WolfOfOakville Isn't sunday gulf day?

[MK @Zaungast01]

@evfcfaddict @SebKrog Selber schuld wenn man in der Provinz wohnt und eine kleine Weltreise ins Zentrum der Marcht starten muss. 😜

[MK @Zaungast01]

@SFarringtonBKC Would you short oil?