FREEWILL

DECENTRALIZATION // SELF CUSTODY BITCOIN//$MSTR [email protected] 21M4LIFE ☮️ #Bitcoin doesn’t care

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

#Bitcoin

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

#Bitcoin is the Exit Strategy.

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@Z06Z07 @JoshMandell6 @WarThomas78 @AdamBLiv @saylor Exactly, talked friends and family into $MSTR , so Saylor needs to deliver 😁

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@JoshMandell6 @WarThomas78 @AdamBLiv @Z06Z07 my only point of contention with @saylor , realizing that we won’t see actual max $MSTR profits until he STOPS accumulating Bitcoin

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

. I want MSTR share price appreciation and real returns on my capital. Unfortunately, continuously selling common stock into strength caps the upside for existing holders.

@saylor

[Bry @BP6179]

Yes, constantly. I'm increasingly focused on the individual. In older interviews Saylor openly discussed how, despite strong products, he struggled to preserve capital in tech/software. Bitcoin gave him the answer, so he went all-in — especially after the massive Oct 2024 raise.The problem is the execution feels compulsive now. It's like putting a bowl of coke in front of someone in recovery and telling them "don't touch it." He’s operating on a 10–100 year engineering/theoretical timeframe, which is fine for him, but my horizon as an investor is much shorter. Bottom line: Does Saylor have a proven track record of delivering consistent growth and returns outside of riding Bitcoin’s appreciation? For me the answer is no. I don’t even love the “BTC per share” metric because I can’t redeem my shares for actual Bitcoin, its a metric that supports accumulation not investor return. I want MSTR share price appreciation and real returns on my capital. Unfortunately, continuously selling common stock into strength caps the upside for existing holders. The strategy has delivered huge BTC accumulation, but the dilution and volatility have been painful. For the next five years I have to decide if BTC will appreciate more that the value say, Elon will deliver, thats the real choice.

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

Andy, Do you consider a more hawkish Fed a headwind for bitcoin?

[Andy Edstrom @edstromandrew]

If I have time I will write up a more fully-formed view on BTC and related situation, I will. For now, a few thoughts.

Saylor is doing what he said he would. He's creating and managing a complexifying capital structure around Bitcoin.

Because it involves leverage and various corporate and governance and other risks, it offers both (1) greater risk of loss of investment and (2) greater potential returns than just holding spot BTC exposure. Reasonable debates can be had about the risks embedded in the "digital credit" portions of the capital structure.

This "strategy" looks great in a Bitcoin bull market but scary in a bear market. Also since it involves paying cash dollars and because people get greedy and add their own leverage to its leverage, it feeds back into the dynamics of the bear market itself. It's Soros' reflexivity at play.

Also there appear to be actions behind the scenes to shore up the newest iteration of the dollar-based global monetary system. Matt Dines can tell you more about that.

And of course Warsh is "playing tough" out of the gate. Only time will reveal his actions.

Right now BTC/USD is "desperately trying" to hold above the 50-week moving average.

That involves more retesting of the same area in the low $60ks.

It's the same as the last 2 bear cycles I lived through.

In 2018 that level was $6k. In 2022 it was around $19k.

Unfortunately, history of these cycles doesn't suggest that the bottom is in yet.

In 2018 and 2022 there was a final capitulation about a year after the peak and two and a half years after the halving.

Will that happen here in 2026?

I have to say greater than 70% chance that the bottom is NOT yet in for this year. I should probably think harder about a target price. In my Feb 28 Bitcoin market update post I wrote 33% chance of 4-handle BTC (i.e. breaking below $50k). Earlier this month I offhandedly put that $50k probability at 20% in a reply tweet. But that was probably premature/optimistic. Here/now I reiterate my Feb 28 view of 33% chance that price gets below $50k.

The last two times we hit $60k, I observed that it would make sense for anyone who is currently under-allocated on BTC to buy those levels.

But the corollary is that it probably wasn't yet time to "get greedy" or "back up the truck" for anyone who already has a reasonable allocation. I haven't "backed up the truck". Maybe I'll miss the chance. That's fine for me because I have been making money in somewhat-diversified basket of other assets in the meantime.

Long-term Bitcoin DCA still makes sense to me since the same dollars buy more coins when dollar price is lower.

In bear markets hodler conviction gets tested over and over. Many are taking hard looks in the mirror. Others are dodging hard looks from their spouses. Same as it ever was. All the best to all of you.

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@JKubinak @Excellion @adam3us @natbrunell @LawrenceLepard @PunterJeff @BitcoinPierre @Werkman It will be a painful path to 2% , which seems like a mandate for this Fed chairman, and bitcoin won’t take off till it’s been achieved

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

Is anyone else getting an ick feeling from a hawkish Chair Warsh and its effect on Bitcoin?

short term effects 1-2yrs are definitely negative

@Excellion @adam3us @natbrunell @LawrenceLepard @PunterJeff @BitcoinPierre @Werkman

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@Excellion @adam3us @natbrunell @LawrenceLepard @PunterJeff @BitcoinPierre @Werkman hope your correct, but still believe that a hawkish Fed is a headwind for Bitcoin

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@JKubinak @Excellion @adam3us @natbrunell @LawrenceLepard @PunterJeff @BitcoinPierre @Werkman hence relevancy

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@JKubinak @Excellion @adam3us @natbrunell @LawrenceLepard @PunterJeff @BitcoinPierre @Werkman irrelevant? We aren’t living the bitcoin standard quite yet

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@Vero_atLast @LawrenceLepard @Excellion @adam3us @natbrunell @PunterJeff @BitcoinPierre @Werkman agree, but a radical change that markets need to absorb

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@Alpha_Ex_LLC Warsh is a different duck and markets best realize that he only quacks when necessary

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@LawrenceLepard @Excellion @adam3us @natbrunell @PunterJeff @BitcoinPierre @Werkman hope your correct on this one ☝️, we need you on that task force

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@CryptoMichNL @LynAldenContact I wonder @LynAldenContact thoughts on the hawkish tilt of the new fed chair and emphasis on 2% inflation target , I see negative short term 1-2yrs effects on bitcoin price

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

DON’T EVER SELL YOUR BITCOIN … BUT

@saylor explains the rationale behind selling bitcoin,which includes tax advantages/proves worth of asset, but most importantly creates FLEXIBILITY moving forward for the ultimate goal of increasing bitcoin per share

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Michael @Saylor believes Bitcoin can 500x.

The more interesting question is how.

At @BTCPrague, we discuss whether Bitcoin’s path forward is driven primarily by adoption and savings, or by capital flowing in through global credit markets.

We also tackle mNAV, concerns around dilution, and Bitcoin per share.

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Why Michael Saylor calls this the most exciting year in Bitcoin history
2:34 Setting the record straight: why Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin
3:55 How Strategy works like a reserve bank built on Bitcoin
6:58 How the company turns Bitcoin gains into payouts - without the tax hit
9:12 Answering the short sellers
11:40 Why a better credit rating could put Strategy in the S&P 500
13:27 Saylor responds to his critics on X
14:47 The constant balancing act: chasing growth without taking on too much risk
16:22 The balance sheet explained: what the company actually owes
20:56 What “digital credit” really means, in plain terms
24:06 What it really costs to raise money
27:31 The trade-off: more Bitcoin per share vs. more risk
41:07 Why idealism alone won’t get Bitcoin there - but big money can
49:42 The “AI summer” pulling money away and when it flows back to Bitcoin

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

This is what you get when acquire bitcoin, worthwhile of your time and labor

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Bitcoin can be many things at once:
• A censorship-resistant monetary network
• A savings technology
• A corporate treasury asset
• A sovereign reserve asset
• A global settlement network
• A self-custody tool
• A hedge against monetary debasement

I don’t view these use cases as competing with one another. They reinforce each other.

The activist escaping capital controls, the family preserving purchasing power, the business holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet, and the nation-state diversifying reserves are all participating in the same truth-based system. They may have different motivations, but they strengthen the same network.

Transformative technologies spread through incentives, not ideology.

Most people did not adopt the internet because they cared about free speech or understood TCP/IP.

Most people did not adopt smartphones because they believed in distributed computing.

Most people did not adopt GPS because they were fascinated by satellites.

They adopted technologies that solved problems and improved their lives.

The same is true of Bitcoin.

Most corporations are not going to buy Bitcoin because they have read Hayek, Mises, or Rothbard. They are going to buy Bitcoin because they believe it is the best treasury asset available to them.

Markets don’t require ideological alignment to produce systemic change.

The internet didn’t transform the world because billions of people shared the same philosophy. It transformed the world because billions of people, pursuing their own interests, adopted a superior technology.

Bitcoin is likely to spread the same way.

Some people will adopt it for freedom.

Some for savings.

Some for treasury management.

Some for speculation.

Some because their company owns it.

Some because their government owns it.

The motivation is less important than the outcome.

Every time capital moves from a fiat-denominated store of value into Bitcoin, the network becomes deeper, more liquid, more secure, and more resilient.

A corporation buying Bitcoin for treasury purposes may not be explicitly trying to separate money and state. But when millions of individuals, companies, institutions, and eventually governments voluntarily choose Bitcoin over fiat assets, that is exactly what is happening.

That is not a distraction from separating money and state.
It is the mechanism by which it actually happens over the long-term. As capital moves from government-managed monetary systems into Bitcoin, control over money shifts from political institutions to an open network governed by transparent rules and voluntary participation.

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@Excellion 💪

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@saylor @wallstreetbets Promised Execution 👏

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@Z06Z07 @jackmallers time to hit up @parkeralewis

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@titcoinpodcast @_Checkmatey_ @SullyMichaelvan Oh James 👍💪👏👊

[FREEWILL @_myexitstrategy]

@parkeralewis @pmelrog I guess the digital credit business doesn’t count …