I come back to this speech every once in a while:
“in the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches
… what percentage of points do you think I won in those matches?
only 54%.”
@APompliano@DaveBlundin highlighted Leopold multiple times over the last 12 months before his INTC calls went exponential. He’d be a great guest on your pod.
Good take
My guess is
- demand for intelligence is near infinite
- but 80% of workloads will be running on 99% cheaper models within 12-18 months
- 20% of workloads will still run on latest gen models where IQ maxing is important (scientific breakthroughs, higher level ochestrator agents?)
- rough analogy might be what % of macbooks or gaming PCs sold have the maxed out specs for CPU/GPU, prices are falling much faster than Moore's law here though
- this leads me to think the limiting factor will be energy and compute, not better models
At Coinbase we're working hard on routing prompts to cheaper models where appropriate, and in some cases have been able to keep costs roughly flat, while token usage continues to grow exponentially.
For some, last week felt like the beginning of an AI bubble unwind.
For me, it looked like the end of the agentic infrastructure fireworks show.
The buildout is not over.
But the easy phase where every chip, memory, power, and infrastructure name worked is probably over.
Now the rotation shifts to the next layer of Jensen Huang’s five-layer cake:
Applications.
That is where ROI shows up.
That is where specialized AI models matter.
And that is why Eli Lilly may be one of the most important AI stories in the market.
GLP-1 cash flow.
Proprietary data.
LillyPod.
TuneLab
Specialized AI.
Peptides=API Keys
Human software.
This week’s video is about why this is rotation, not a bear market and why the next phase of AI may look very different from the last one.
Watch here:https://t.co/NX74tzApzP
@suekhim love what you're building. thanks for the reply Sue. Even if it's on the long list, with the speed everything is moving, i'm optimistic it'll make it on to the short list sooner than imagined :)
Nokia Insiders are buying stock even after its crazy rally.
$NOK Insider purchases in the last 30 days
- Apr 28 CEO Justin Hotard acquired 84,404 shares at ~$10.71/share (VWAP ~€9.15), totaling ~$904,000
- Apr 28 Board Chair Timo Ihamuotila acquired 50,000 shares at ~$10.66/share (VWAP ~€9.10), totaling ~$532,500.
- May 25 Senior Manager Konstanty Owczarek acquired 32,595 shares at ~$15.3457share $500k
@DrDiGiorgio The first question is why is the hospital allowing the surgeon to waste his valuable time in filing paperwork rather than maximizing time in the OR or clinic?