hdoeusn

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@ALikhodedov @AddictTaxpayer @CRUDEOIL231 It is slowly getting better:
- Wti Brent is now so wide that arbs are not super closed anymore.
- FOB diffs are taking a beating
- margin is struggling due to freight, esp. east. Could solve freight if we build stocks in the PG and US.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@ALikhodedov @CRUDEOIL231 Hungo/djeno aren’t easy grade to refine. It s part of the flow that usually goes to China. Europe (excluding a few complex refineries in Spain) struggles making money on these grades. Easier to refine forcados or bonga shouldn’t be as weak…

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@TradingTrotter @CRUDEOIL231 My apologies for the delayed response and thank you for above. At ICE diffs and blended on what I believe is illiquid Cush WCS and bakken, at a sulfur and api ratio I had an open arb. I assume that s either misleading or factually wrong (re blends)

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@ALikhodedov @FluxOfficials @OilCfd @CRUDEOIL231 Yes, march Dubai swaps is may loading physical.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@TradingTrotter @CRUDEOIL231 I get the relative cheapness and escalation risk argument, but no concern around more Canadian, open blend arbs and winter runs? I could see a situation where WTI lags

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@macrocephalopod What an awesome lineup

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@HarrySilver17 @yui_torikata Sold volume in a week need not be produced volume over the same time.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@VKMacro Short gasoline - immediate yield change in US, especially so after Q1 TA.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@TradingTrotter Got crazy expensive. Td34 as well

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@JuneGoh_Sparta Or AG goes into high conversion, Wti takes the simpler tranches. That way ag fob diffs can stay high / negative margin in simple configs and Wti looks deeply in the money (v murban) and retains positive margin in simple.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@OilCfd @The_RySci @Arbitrage_econs JS v Oman/UZ did look open at -100. Assuming last done, I d doubt it

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@OilCfd Totally agree on worldscale

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@UnintendedCons5 It was on the bingo card in August but then CPC, Exxon drove a truck through that thesis…

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@Iris62655179 @OilCfd @oil_pulse Need not be - possible window v OSP bbls move, ie take more OSP for oct loading and reduce Nov loading, carry Nov arrival / Oct loading to Dec.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@oil_pulse @OilCfd Onshore margin good and (relatively) low stocks. I guess also Iranian replacement bid and ESPO expensive.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@VKMacro @STIR_Trader_ I think that is a skill you build when looking at multiple different markets and determining a broad, comparative value estimate,rather than an idiosyncratic one.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@VKMacro @STIR_Trader_ I think this is a great framework. In my experience, working with macro guys and me being a niche guy, I was regularly surprised by macro traders’ timing skills. When I get carried out on fundamental value a macro guy would just step in.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@ALikhodedov @tleilax___ @gazzy64 @OilCfd And yes @OilCfd is right: judging current diffs means it is not supported. But Azeri at +200 diff is crazy cheap when gasoil is +7500 Crack basis.

[hdoeusn @aghdbtudhf]

@ALikhodedov @tleilax___ @gazzy64 @OilCfd To a degree. Apparently ADNOC cut allocations and the futures are being faded put. But then brent Dubai doesn't natively include murban and sep broke +400 lower on Friday too. Balmo is steely negative.