All In Trader

Applying decades of experience and principles into asymmetric bets.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@grok @rbelfore @hntrbrkmedia It did reply as of today

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@DavidInglesTV Float around socialist ideas and money leaves... shocker

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@IlltakeACookie @aleabitoreddit Except you at least have the odds in your favor relative to the come bet. Not the case on average short selling with poor asymmetry

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@grok @Lonbaker @JessePeltan Policy costs being the most egregious part of the mix

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@Sean_ZMC @aleabitoreddit @jd_tradez @grok The fact you even ask this specific question is laughable. If you don’t know why that’s even worse.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@BrentT744093 @WayneWhaley1136 If you don't have that as your baseline view... read a couple of history books unless you think this time is different..

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@BrentT744093 @WayneWhaley1136 Because Ironically they are ignorant to reality and stuck in theoretical ideals.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@AnalyticalWager @SemiAnalysis_ Its a classic case of getting way too much attention in a short period of time and the founders deciding to cash in their reputation.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@kogadama @aleabitoreddit @SemiAnalysis_ After a firm like that blows up in the media and hype... the grifts begin subtle and get more and more egregious

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@BrentT744093 @WayneWhaley1136 As opposed to the shit show in Europe? Democracy is alive and well besides a few regional blue socialist experiments that come and go every few generations. Its all cyclical.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@BecauseOfScout @Davidaiuwhy lol Exactly what I was going to write

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@Davidaiuwhy You’re 48 years old and so far most of these calls have been awful esp snowflake and aaoi

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@PaperGainsInc They are just slow and bad at execution besides legacy

[KawzInvests @KawzInvests]

The AI infrastructure buildout has three distinct networking layers. Each one is at a different point in its adoption curve and each one has different winners.

1. Scale-up connects GPUs inside a single server and eventually across racks. The transition from copper is happening in stages.

> Copper still dominates at short distances.

> Active electrical cable extends that reach but loses signal integrity as clusters grow.

> LPO removes the DSP entirely, cutting power consumption to near CPO levels while keeping the pluggable form factor operators already know.

> NPO moves optics closer to the chip without full co-packaging. Both are ramping faster than CPO in the near term because they require less ecosystem disruption.

> CPO is the endgame. It integrates optics directly onto the switch ASIC substrate, cutting signal loss from 20dB to 1-2dB and power consumption by 3x or more.

$AVGO's Davisson and $NVDA's Spectrum-X are the CPO platforms. $MRVL acquired Celestial AI to position optics directly on top of XPUs rather than at the die edge, with Amazon as the lead design win. $COHR and $LITE supply the CW and EML lasers every platform requires. $LITE holds more than 50% share in high-speed EML lasers with multi-billion dollar supply agreements locked with Nvidia through end of decade. $CRDO and $MTSI supply the LRO and LPO chipsets capturing near term volume before CPO fully ramps.

2. Scale-out connects servers inside a single data center. The 800G transceiver cycle is at peak volume with 1.6T at the beginning of its inflection.

> $MRVL's 51.2T switches and DSPs sit at the center.

> $AAOI is expanding capacity 10x and demand still outpaces supply through mid-2027.

> $COHR supplies modules across the stack.

3. Scale-across connects data centers to each other over distance so one AI model trains across geographically distributed GPU clusters as a single logical environment. The link between sites requires lossless coherent optical transport at 800G and 1.6T.

> $CIEN holds the number one global position in data center interconnect. Their Q2 executive summary states it directly: "DCI, including scale-across, is gaining momentum as customers connect AI data centers to monetize their investments."

> $COHR and $LITE supply the optical circuit switches enabling spine replacement and redundancy across those links.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@Jason @grok Probably because Newsom is trying to run for president and something entered that empty skull of his and realized the state can’t collapse before 2027

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@ChrisCamillo Stick to Amazon analysis. Going swimmingly for your audience.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@v_perfect @biancoresearch So long as uninformed and gaslit members of the irrelevant part of society believe that, it will continue

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@butts99737 @Judynnc @chamath There’s plenty of evidence out there on NGO‘s linked to the CCP funding and paying protesters and local officials to agitate progress. It’s a clear economic benefit for them on this axis.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@Judynnc @butts99737 @chamath Do your own research clown. If you don’t have the ability to do basic research cry all you want and stay uninformed.

[All In Trader @AllInTrader]

@Judynnc @butts99737 @chamath They are and they will continue to do so at greater scale and years later our population in rural areas will wonder why they have been decimated by no progress or investment