Altavest

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[Altavest @altavest]

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.

[Dr. Copper🔋🌎⛏️ @CopperBullish]

#Copper

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

The Strait of Hormuz closure is proving to be a MAJOR PROBLEM for US corporations.

Supply-chain bottlenecks are rising, delivery times are slowing, and firms are tying up more capital in inventories.

THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

Today ended a 94-day streak without a 2% or greater decline in $SPX, and, per usual, it happened in spectacular fashion.

[Peak Financial Investing @PeakFinInv]

At the current pace that we're draining our strategic petroleum reserve, we have 158 days before we hit the wall at full speed.

The US is effectively funding the world's oil demand from the SPR by bringing supply up to meet demand instead of letting price drive demand down to meet supply. We can only do that for so long before it turns into a major crisis.

Full report: https://t.co/r7LlpCH3rL

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Thanks @AlanEyre1. From Washington to Beijing, the response has been the same: reassure markets with words and hundreds of millions of barrels from strategic reserves. The gamble is that governments can bridge the gap until supply returns and prices fall.

The problem is that a falling oil price is not evidence of rebalancing. It is evidence that we are consuming the buffer and mistaking it for abundance.

There is a difference between a market clearing and a market solving. What we are witnessing is destocking: the drawdown of finite inventories accumulated over decades. You can only do that once.

The article notes that “inventories and government reserves run low”, but that understates the issue. Strategic reserves buy time, not supply. When tank bottoms arrive (likely later this summer), there is no price signal that conjures a new barrel into existence.

The “stream finds its way around the log” metaphor is seductive but flawed. It assumes the total volume of water is unchanged and that we don’t mind being thirsty. The Strait’s closure has not simply redirected supply; it has removed supply while the world burns through stored reserves to cover the gap.

When Jimmy Carter asked Americans to turn down the thermostat, he was punished for acknowledging physical constraints. His successors learned to promise abundance instead. That lesson is being applied again today, and the consequences will be proportionally larger for the delay.

You cannot print molecules. And you cannot destock your way to energy security.

[Altavest @altavest]

@OilHeadlineNews LOL

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

I spoke with @davidlin_TV about when jet fuel prices will SOAR:

“Demand exceeds supply, and inventories of jet fuel are running down. At some point mid-summer, the inventories will hit rock bottom. When that happens, the price will really shoot up.”

[Altavest @altavest]

The final day is on the air right now...

[Altavest @altavest]

From June 2 to June 5, watch the Mad Hedge Investing Summit. Get your free pass here https://t.co/zl2QUKQh2z

[Altavest @altavest]

@larry_kudlow @MJSarraille Why would you compound your first error of attacking Iran by doubling down with US troops on the ground? Sure, we could eventually win, but is the cost worth it? Why not focus on helping our Middle East allies build pipelines to circumvent Hormuz?

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

HRH Prince Abdulaziz, likely the most informed and plugged-in energy expert on the planet: “for me to be silent is a humble admission of the fact that I don’t know what will happen, not tomorrow but in half an hour time.” There is no playbook for what we are going through!

[Altavest @altavest]

@HedgeyeENERGY @HedgeyeIndstrls Should be an interesting summer! Tight supplies and strong demand, sounds bullish for the commodity.

[Altavest @altavest]

Reminds us of how it took equities at least 2 months to price in risks associated with the Covid pandemic, despite daily headlines.

[R. Patrick Kent (RPK) @RPKent]

@lighthousejerry But the market must already know?! 😂

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

I spoke with @davidlin_TV about who is causing worldwide supercharged commodity prices:

“The US and Israel attacked Iran. Iran is simply COUNTERATTACKING… It’s clear that the US and Israel are inflicting a lot of price pain on the world as a result of their WAR OF CHOICE.”

[Altavest @altavest]

Yep

[Sparta @SpartaCommo]

Markets are sleepwalking into a supply crunch.

US inventories are at critical lows. Chevron's CEO said it. Vitol's MD said it. But equity markets keep rallying and no one's queuing at the pump. So the problem stays invisible.

Until it isn't.

FULL EPISODE 🎧 https://t.co/iGBKfWqbqu

#oott #oilmarkets #crudeoil

[Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV]

TWG Global Managing Partner and Former White House Aide Amos Hochstein says any leverage the United States holds in talks with Iran is gone once US crude inventories are depleted, which could be as soon as the middle of July https://t.co/4Zomikiyld

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Ninepoint Energy Strategies Update: the "battle for the barrel"™️ and why oil product shortages in the coming weeks are likely, resulting in a price spike

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

To go out publicly and say what he is saying, @edzitron has balls the size of the Las Vegas sphere

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Since start of Iran war, just 29 oil tankers have successfully navigated (escaped) out of Strait of Hormuz while 80 still remained trapped in Persian Gulf
@DataArbor

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

California is about 4 weeks away from running out of jet fuel and diesel.

The issue is that there is no pipeline setup to get these fuels to California from other parts of the USA.

There are simply not enough tankers arriving in California to meet current demand.

The Strait of Hormuz is reducing oil supply and certain areas of the world without their own refineries are losing access to fuel.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Trafigura Warns Oil at ‘Critical Juncture’ as Buffers Run Out

Trafigura Group said energy markets are at a “critical juncture,” with the factors that have kept a lid on prices swiftly receding.

Prices for crude oil, jet fuel and natural gas have soared since the Iran war shuttered supplies from the world’s biggest energy-exporting region. That market shock, which already threatens to tip some countries into recession, could have been even worse if it weren’t for large stockpiles cushioning the blow, Trafigura Chief Economist Saad Rahim said.

High inventories, releases from strategic reserves and demand destruction across Asia and Africa have “bought the market time, but are not a solution,” Rahim said Thursday as the company reported half-year results. “Those buffers are now largely spent, and we are at a critical juncture.” (Bloomberg)