Arif mahmood

I am moderate & modern Muslim, and respect others opinion.

[Meher Jazib Ali @MeherJazibAli]

The cement sector should be on the watchlist of the risky investors!

Stocks to consider: MLCF, CHCC, KOHC, LUCK

#Cement #KSE100 #PSX

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

Build right narrative

[Saleem @Kingwarryyy]

@IftikharFirdous We need to change the language of narratives. It could be:-
"A most wanted criminal from banned so called TTP was neutralized...... "

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@81ShahbazRana I think this step should have taken long before.

[Jawwad @jawwadsaif]

A country of 10 million people, in the middle of an active war, broke its all-time export record.

Israel's total exports hit $165 billion in 2025 — up 10% from the year before. No oil. No gas. No vast agricultural land. Worth understanding what they actually sell.

More than half of that figure — over $92 billion — came from software, cybersecurity, fintech, and R&D services. Not goods leaving a port. Engineers billing clients in Frankfurt and New York from offices in Tel Aviv. This share has been growing for years and is now the backbone of the entire economy.

The rest comes from physical goods: diamonds, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and defense technology.

Israel imports rough diamonds, cuts and polishes them domestically, then exports them as finished stones — mainly to the US and Hong Kong.

Teva Pharmaceuticals, founded in 1901, is today one of the world's largest generic drug manufacturers, selling in over 60 countries.

Check Point Software, founded in 1993 in Tel Aviv, protects over 100,000 organizations globally and crossed $2.7 billion in annual revenue in 2025.

Mobileye, an autonomous driving company built in Jerusalem, was acquired by Intel for $15.7 billion — the largest Israeli exit in history.

Arms and ammunition exports grew 35% in 2025 alone, the fastest-growing category among all Israeli goods.

Now the more important question: why does none of this fall apart under pressure?

The structural answer is simple. When most of your exports are software and pharmaceutical patents, a conflict 80 kilometers away does not stop a deployment to a cloud server or a drug shipment to Rotterdam. The economy is insulated by what it sells, not by where it is.

The deeper answer takes longer to explain. Israel spent decades building universities, military R&D units, and a venture capital ecosystem — all pointing in the same direction.

None of this is an endorsement of Israeli policy. That is a separate and legitimate conversation. But for a Pakistani reader: a small, resource-poor country turned consistent investment in human capital into a $165 billion export machine.

We have engineers. We have the population. The gap has always been elsewhere.

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@QaimKhanisays سوال یہ ہے کہ دنیا کی پریمیم ایجنسی کدھر ہے۔ وہ کیا کر رہی ہے ۔

[Chris Meder @EVCurveFuturist]

Pakistan’s grid is doing something rare. Fossil has fallen from 66% to 44%. Nuclear is scaling. Solar is breaking out, wind is joining in & decentralised rooftop solar is scaling at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, hydro holds the system together as the generational shift begins.

For two decades, Pakistan’s power mix barely moved. Fossil sat around 60–70%, hydro carried ~30%, and everything else was marginal. Then the energy transition began, and it didn’t follow the usual script.

Nuclear moved first. From ~2% in 2000 to ~17% by 2025, it’s one of the few systems globally where nuclear share is clearly rising. That growth is deliberate, built, and running at high capacity, quietly strengthening the backbone of the grid.

Wind edged in gradually. But the real disruption came from solar. From effectively zero to ~8% in a short window, driven less by policy and more by economics. High tariffs, unreliable supply, and cheap panels triggered a massive surge in behind-the-meter installs.

That’s the key nuance. A large share of Pakistan’s solar boom sits off-grid and isn’t fully captured in official generation data. It makes the system look slower to change than it actually is, and makes building a clean dataset far more challenging than in most countries.

Two very different forces are now moving together. Nuclear is scaling from the top down, engineered and centralised. Solar is spreading from the bottom up, reactive and decentralised. They’re not competing. They’re stacking.

Hydro sits in the middle, doing what it has always done, balancing and stabilising the system. Fossil is still large and still necessary, but it’s no longer growing. From ~66% down to ~44%, it’s clearly losing ground.

Pakistan hasn’t followed a clean transition pathway. It’s been pushed into change by cost, constraints, and demand. The result isn’t one technology replacing another. It’s a system being reshaped from multiple directions at once.

Hydro anchors. Nuclear scales. Solar breaks out. Wind warms up. Fossil fills what’s left.

Not merely a transition. A system under pressure, starting to bend.

[Sarah Adams @sarahadams]

MASTERMIND OF THE BANNU TERRORIST ATTACK IDENTIFIED

The May 9, 2026, complex terrorist attack in Bannu, Pakistan, was claimed by “Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan,” but this is NOT a separate or independent terrorist organization. It is an operational arm inside of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) linked to the Hafiz Gul Bahadur network, with TTP using the name to obfuscate its direct involvement in attacks.

The attack was masterminded by a senior TTP Commander operating under the kunya Mullah Uncle Waziristani (pictured below), who leads the Jaish Tahrir al-Hind unit within the group. It is believed that Abdul Aziz Haqqani also had foreknowledge of the attack planning. Abdul Aziz is currently serving as the de facto operational head of the Haqqani Network, allowing Sirajuddin Haqqani to maintain political distance as a ruse to keep the Doha Deal in effect and the U.S. dollars rolling in. Despite this arrangement, Sirajuddin remains directly involved in the group’s operations. Abdul Aziz is also a member of al-Qaeda’s Military Commission and involved in the group’s U.S. homeland plotting.

The attack itself demonstrated a highly coordinated, multi-layered operation that reflects the continued evolution of jihadist capabilities operating across the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater. The tactics used should be studied by U.S. law enforcement agencies, as they resemble methods seen in scenarios involving attackers trained in Afghanistan who have now deployed to the U.S. homeland. What stands out tactically is the sequencing and integration of multiple attack methods into a single operation: a massive breaching VBIED, immediate exploitation by assault teams, secondary attacks targeting reinforcements, and drone integration during the assault itself.

As background, the assault began at approximately 2055 local with a suicide VBIED carrying an estimated 1,200–1,500 kilograms of explosives targeting the Fateh Khel police checkpoint in Bannu district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The blast destroyed much of the compound, collapsed nearby civilian homes, and created the breach point for follow-on assault teams.

Immediately after the explosion, fighters launched a coordinated armed assault while secondary ambushes targeted responding security forces. Pakistani officials stated that more than 100 terrorists participated in the operation. The attack also reportedly involved the use of quadcopter drones to support battlefield awareness and operational coordination.

At least 21 police personnel were killed.

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@FireThroughPSX @ArifHabibLtd @cdcofficialpk Agreed, data disappear sometimes in the account which is frustrating.

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@osintPk Good, that's great why these bloody Pakistanis were keeping their wealth in UAE instead of Pakistan.

[RedZone Wanderer @RedZoneIsb]

Yesterday I posted a thread on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method for valuation of stocks. Many readers asked for a real PSX example.
So I chose Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) and ran the numbers using different base years. The results will surprise you.
Thread. 🧵

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

The Gulf will never be the same, and this strikes at the very heart of regional investment

Between 2000 and 2015, Dubai experienced explosive growth in sectors like tourism, finance, and construction.

The 2007 launch of the ‘Dubai Strategic Plan 2015’ formalized the goal of maintaining double-digit growth and consolidating the nation as a bridge between East and West.

Today, oil accounts for less than 30% of the UAE’s total GDP and under 5% of Dubai’s, a model entirely dependent on the perception of stability in an historically volatile region.

This was only possible because they realized early on that oil is a finite and volatile resource. To replace this revenue, the focus shifted toward becoming a global connector.

For the Emirates, the pillars of this project were legal certainty, through the creation of Free Zones where English Common Law, rather than Sharia, prevails, and massive logistics investment. World-class assets like Emirates Airline and the Port of Jebel Ali transformed the country into an essential stopover, bolstered by a cosmopolitan soft power.

By relaxing laws on alcohol, cohabitation, and residency, such as the Golden Visa, they attracted the human capital that once fled the region.
The masterstroke was seamless integration: a ship arrives at Jebel Ali, the cargo is processed commercially in a free zone, and the operation is financed by a bank in the adjacent financial center.

In Qatar, the model truly prospered in the late 90s when the country became the world’s largest LNG exporter, using that wealth to build global brands like Al Jazeera and Qatar Airways.

This was recently consolidated through major international events, like the 2022 World Cup, to secure geopolitical relevance beyond fossil fuels. Like the UAE, Qatar also implemented reforms, notably ending the Kafala system.

Since 2020, expats can change jobs without employer consent and no longer need exit permits to leave the country. Furthermore, in 2021, Qatar became the first in the region to set a non-discriminatory minimum wage, significantly boosting its free zones.

Meanwhile, Bahrain established itself as the GCC’s most cost-effective fintech hub, offering operating costs up to 48% lower than its neighbors. It is now a global center for Islamic finance with over 360 licensed institutions, focusing on economic freedom and ease of doing business.
These nations aren’t just wealthy; they became essential to global flows.

However, there is a key difference: while Qatar remains deeply reliant on LNG (90% of export revenues), the UAE achieved greater GDP diversification.

The Saudis, however, are now aggressively investing in ‘Vision 2030,’ directly targeting their neighbors’ investments, especially those of the UAE, with whom they have friction.

In 2024 and 2025, Riyadh implemented laws requiring multinationals to move their regional headquarters to Saudi Arabia to access government contracts, forcing a migration of corporate power away from Dubai.

In truth, the Saudi and Qatari models are inherently more secure as they are still anchored by energy exports.
The issue is that by continuing to host foreign bases, which was bound to trigger conflict with Iran, the entire region has jeopardized its model of prosperity.

Following the American strike, it wasn’t just valuations that were lost, but the primary competitive ‘moat’: the perception of absolute stability.

Ironically, it was regional instability elsewhere that originally fueled these countries, attracting investment and millionaires from across the Islamic world. In 2025 alone, the UAE captured $63 billion and attracted 9,800 millionaires, while Saudi Arabia drew 2,400. Qatar saw its millionaire count jump from just 46 in the year 2000 to over 26,000 in 2024.

This entire system, highly dependent on a sense of security, was shattered by the war in Iran.

Red the full article:
https://t.co/LWE455BOkT

[Meher Jazib Ali @MeherJazibAli]

Do take some time out to read the books for valuation. It's very helpful.

https://t.co/vvHCldLkb7

#CommercialBanks #KSE100 #PSX

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@Pakistanomy Welcome to civilized world . In every civilized country u need license for every thing.

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

When people talk about persistent 1–2% inflation caused by the Iran war, this needs to be evaluated in the context of a conflict that is still ongoing and has already produced extremely high economic damage.

Since the start of the Iran war:

• War Risk Insurance Premiums (Persian Gulf): +400% (peaks of up to 1,000% in March)
• VLCC Tanker Freight Rates (Middle East–Asia): +250% (absolute historical record, with peaks above US$ 420,000 per day)
• Asian LNG Spot: +140% (confirmed by multiple sources)
• Helium: +115% (doubled in many markets; Qatar accounts for ~1/3 of global supply)
• Methanol: +78%
• Naphtha: +62%
• Jet Fuel: +60% (some sources report nearly double in certain hubs)
• Sulfur: +53%
• Urea: +49%
• Ammonia: +47%
• Bunker Fuel (Marine Fuel / VLSFO): +55%
• Heating Oil: +46%
• Diesel: +46%
• Brent Crude Oil: +36%
• Fertilizer (overall): +35%
• Gasoline: +35%
• WTI Crude Oil: +35%
• European Natural Gas: +33%
• Polypropylene / Petrochemical Plastics: +52%
• Global Container Freight Rates (Asia-Europe, Drewry/SCFI): +95% on affected routes (more moderate on non-Middle East global routes)
• Aluminum: +25%
• Palm Oil: +14%
• Coal: +12%
• Iron Ore: +8%
• Rice: +6%
• S&P 500: +3%
• $VIX: -4%

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@FSWarraich People who live or has interests, businesses will never agree with you due to their stacks.

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@Dr_BuAbdullah UAE and Pakistan relations are doomed for good. As a Pakistani , I want to cut off relations with a state who can’t stand with u in time of difficulty. No more UAE.

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@marcel_aromeh @grok name of the movie

[Arif mahmood @arifpk]

@uae2me پاکستان اب متحدہ عرب امارات پر ٹرسٹ نہیں کرتا اس کی وجہ یہ ہے کہ متحدہ عرب امارات انڈیا کا کہ متحدہ عرب امارات انڈیا کا دوست ہے اور اسرائیل کا یار ہے اور پاکستانیوں کی اکثریت یہ سمجھتی ہے کہ متحدہ عرب امارات نے کراچی بندرگاہ اور گوادر بندرگاہ کی ترقی میں رکاوٹ ہے