Alessandro Rizzoli

trying to make a difference no matter what 😜

[stonkdaddy @stonk_daddy]

After digging through the SpaceX S-1, it is easy to see how these numbers can be misunderstood. SpaceX needs strong top line growth to justify its nosebleed valuation considering the 100x sales multiple. 2026 Q1 headline revenues of $4.69B, only +15% YoY, do not appear to support this narrative. But there’s a ton under the surface that paint a different picture, let’s connect the dots.

Q1 segment breakdown:

Space: $619M, -28.4% YoY.

SpaceX’s technological superiority in launch is the pillar that supports the entire valuation thesis. Falcon 9 enabled Starlink, Starship will one day enable orbital data centers and beyond. However, actual launch revenues are near irrelevant to the valuation. This is revenue from external customers, which can be lumpy or delayed. SpaceX has insatiable internal demand and would allocate any shortfall in external to more Starlink satellites. Indeed, launch revenue has been flat for years, while overall launch cadence has grown, all going to Starlink. The decline in Q1 was a drag on the overall growth number — but meaningless for the overall story. 

Connectivity: $3.26B, +31.6% YoY.

Unlike launch revenue, connectivity IS crucial and the growth and profit engine for SpaceX right now. That’s why this number was of some concern at first. Connectivity had +96.4% growth in ‘24 and +49.8% in ‘25, so +31.6% in Q1 is not exactly the trendline you want to see. However, digging deeper there was -$175m decrease in government connectivity revenue, most likely lumpy revenue recognition tied to Starshield.
Ex-government → steady +50-55% growth, exactly in line with 2025.

AI: $818M, +12.5% YoY.

This is the most misunderstood piece and hardest to parse for true signal.

•  Advertising: -$100M from an overhaul of ad platform. It’s been stagnant for years ($2.32B in ‘23 → $1.73B in ‘24 → $1.84B in ‘25). Much like launch revenue, no one is buying this stock for Twitter ads, so this is noise. But at almost $2b annual run rate, it is a drag on overall growth.

•  AI solutions and infrastructure: +$189M in Q1 but we don’t know from what base. On an annual basis AI solutions has been growing solidly ($638M in ‘23 → $892M in ‘24 → $1.36B in ‘25). Using these numbers and the advertising numbers we can estimate that AI solutions grew ~65% in Q1. This is the relevant number, however it still understates growth because it includes legacy X subscriptions that do not reflect AI demand.

Overall revenue takeaway: Growth was masked by lumpy launch/government contracts + one-time ad noise. The two engines that actually matter?

→ Starlink: rock-solid high-50s% growth
→ AI: ~65% growth and accelerating

And this is before the real inflection:

• Anthropic revenue kicks in Q2 → ~+50% QoQ overall revenue boost (even only partial quarter from May/June)

• Cursor revenue ramps in Q3 after acquisition closes, at true AI scaling speed: +300% ARR in just 5 months (from $1B in November ‘25 to $3B in April ‘26), all before accelerating even more post Composer 2.5

So we go from “meh +15%” headline growth that were understated by non essential segments and one-time items to clear hypergrowth in Q2/Q3.

On profits: 2025 FY net loss was $4.94B

•  $6.36B operating loss was from AI, much of this was depreciation on GPUs that sat idle (those GPUs are now being monetized through Anthropic & Cursor)

•  $1.95B was interest expense carried over from the X/xAI debt load
Strip those out and the launch + Starlink business was already solidly profitable. Going forward they can pay down debt with a portion of the IPO raise to derisk or leverage for more compute.

Yes, the rich valuation carries a high Elon premium, a massive tech premium (second place is 10+ years behind), and huge Starship TAM optionality for access to entirely new industries.
But even on the pure numbers — once you dig past the headline noise — the growth is actually strong and about to explode.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The Tesla chip design reviews are so fun!

[Alessandro Rizzoli @arizzoli]

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[Alessandro Rizzoli @arizzoli]

@elonmusk @grok judge? @elonmusk

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Davos discussion

[Melissa Tate @TheRightMelissa]

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[Herbert Ong @herbertong]

🚨 BREAKING: TWO Tesla Cybercabs just spotted testing in downtown Austin, Texas

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[Alessandro Rizzoli @arizzoli]

@TeslaBoomerMama Auckland, New Zealand

[Tsla Chan @Tslachan]

와….

[Alessandro Rizzoli @arizzoli]

@SawyerMerritt Fsd in Europe 🙏

[Alessandro Rizzoli @arizzoli]

@stevenmarkryan 68-71% however enough to go on with the plan

[Alessandro Rizzoli @arizzoli]

@TeslaBoomerMama Mercedez-benz

[Alessandro Rizzoli @arizzoli]

@ElonMuskAOC ‘Couse beauty is right 😂

[Alessandro Rizzoli @arizzoli]

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[Tesla @Tesla]

World's first autonomous delivery of a car!

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One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
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[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

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