Jah

ex-Tesla | Big Solar, Big Batteries, Big Compute

[Jah @ascending_yuga]

“Nothing else in the world…not all the armies…is so powerful as an idea whose time has come.”

[signüll @signulll]

wait a minute, elon musk:

- basically rebuilt america’s space ambitions after the shuttle program got retired. i mean the only way america could send astronauts to space was through the fucking russians! could you imagine if that dependency was still there with the conflict that exists today?

- turned electric cars that no one even remotely touched into a desirable mass market product… this also resulted in vast amounts of competition & other infra development (like the super charger network). he also effectively inspired the chinese electric car industry after they basically stole all of tesla’s secrets.

- acquired twitter & reopened parts of public debate that a ton of gatekeepers preferred closed & off limits. ppl got banned for simply asking questions during humanity’s most critical event (covid).

- & is now saving the sheer incompetence of the american govt by building out an american semiconductor complex.

you can dislike his politics, personality, or methods. but any honest macro accounting has to admit that few individuals ever have done more to rebuild strategic american capacity across space, transportation, communication, & now semiconductors.

the american media judges him tweet by tweet while barely acknowledging the rockets, factories, & infrastructure being built that should’ve actually been the responsibility of the collective. this is shameful af.

[Peter Hague @peterrhague]

I like how finance guys from Morgan Stanley are having to learn about lunar mass drivers.

[Liv Boeree @Liv_Boeree]

Never forget the gaslighting

[roon @tszzl]

legendary, the show goes on, etc

[Atlas Press @realAtlasPress]

Charlie Munger, excellent advice to college grads entering the real world

[Euwyn Poon @euwyn]

Here are a few other things that the experts said about SpaceX:

"There is no scenario in which the economics of reusable launch vehicles makes them preferable in cost to expendable launch vehicles."

– Dr. Stephen Book (Aerospace Cost Analyst)

"It's pretty darn hard to make that [reusability] actually save money."

– Tory Bruno (CEO United Launch Alliance)

"I support the encouragement of the newcomers... But I am not confident."

– Neil Armstrong (Apollo 11 Commander)

"I think the odds are against them."

– Burt Rutan (Founder & Chief Engineer Scaled Composites)

"This is not the time to experiment."

– Harrison Schmitt (Apollo 17 Astronaut)

"Get your boy Elon in line!"

– Bill Nelson (Senator)

[SpaceXAI Memphis @SpaceXAIMemphis]

SpaceXAI is committed to powering its supercomputers in ways that both reduce costs of energy for the American people and minimize the impact on surrounding communities.

We have entered into an agreed order with @MDEQ establishing a fixed removal timeline for all 69 of the temporary, mobile turbines that currently power our facility in Southaven, Mississippi.

All temporary turbines will be removed by July 2027.

Today's agreed order codifies our commitment to achieve this timeline.

https://t.co/9Vz82mSJCI

[amit @amitisinvesting]

OH. MY. GOODNESS.

CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND.

So...Citadel scares everyone on Tuesday about a surprise rate hike during FOMC that WE ALL KNEW was not going to happen...

On Wednesday, the entire market freaks out about the rate hike which causes the selling to compound on itself creating 50-70% drawdowns across the board in high beta semicondcutor names...

Which means Leopold who we now know had $45B of assets and was 400% LEVERED ends up being the sacrifice as he gets liquidated at what theoretically could be the bottom due to not having the margin requirements to keep solvent...

AND THE PERSON WHO CAUSED THE SELLOFF WITH THE RATE HIKE FEARS ENDS UP COMING IN TO BUY HIS ASSETS FOR 40 TO 50 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR.

By the way, Leopold is getting married this weekend. I think he wanted to make sure he wasn't getting margin called during his wedding.

A vet on wall street in Ken Griffin takes out the young new kid.

ABSOLUTE. CINEMA.

[DHH @dhh]

He can't keep getting away with being right!!

[Yatharth Mann @yatharthmann]

This shot goes so hard

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Morgan Stanley says GPU cloud business is extremely profitable.

"We see hyperscaler GPU rental businesses generating 70% incremental margins and 30%+ ROIC"

[Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93]

Ok big scary numbers... let's unpack a bit. Nvidia’s proposed $250B OpenAI backstop is NOT a $250B upfront check (which should fire off alarm bells).

It looks like it would guarantee a series of financing vehicles (read separate SPVs across the buildout) as the 10 GW Ohio campus is built, allowing lenders to underwrite Nvidia’s credit instead of OpenAI’s (unrated and currently cash burning). Tenor is a huge swing factor here on $s disbursed (should the backstop fire) and at what implied rate.

10 GW = 10M kW. The implied facility obligation is:
>10 years: $208/kW-month, or $25B/year
>15 years: $139/kW-month, or $17B/year
>20 years: $104/kW-month, or $12.5B/year

For comparison, current North American asking rents for smaller deployments average ~$200/kW-month, with Chicago at $200–230 and Northern Virginia at $190–235. OH is becoming a premier hub - Columbus capacity has grown 1,800% since 2020 as power constraints push demand into the Midwest, so the bet is that this market can hold something close to today’s clearing rates through the tenor of the backstop.

At 15–20 years, the pricing looks reasonable. At 10 years, Nvidia is underwriting today’s tight-market rents across the 10 GW (and again, this may come in tranches with different rates/terms/tenors).

The exposure also phases in. The first 800 MW is not expected until 2028, and the full campus will take many years to build to get to that 10GW nameplate.

Nvidia currently generates nearly ~$50B of quarterly free cash flow (one could argue elevated by cycle but for sake of convo), so a normal $12–25B annual draw is manageable. The bear risk is a scenario where OpenAI cannot fund the lease, AI demand weakens, AND Nvidia’s own chip revenue falls at the same time.

Hard to speak definitively w/o missing terms like tenor, default triggers, acceleration rights and whether Nvidia can take over or remarket the capacity. Those determine how much risk Nvidia is actually taking and we're unlikely to get that any time soon. But hope that clears up some fears... Lot of people hand-wringing over a large nominal number w/o any context.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Morgan Stanley: "Our highest conviction view: the demand for compute is likely to significantly exceed supply for many years to come."

"We are fundamentally bullish on the rate of improvement in AI capabilities, the benefits of AI adoption, and associated capex."

"The ROI on AI capex is attractive. Our token economics model suggests both large LLMs and more efficient models generate strong ROIs on the underlying AI infrastructure."

[Finn Stockinger @FinnStockinger]

The $500B AI wall isn’t compute or energy anymore -it’s balance sheets.

This post nails the exact playbook currently unfolding with the massive SoftBank / OpenAI / Nvidia 10 GW campus in Ohio.

We have officially entered the era of AI Financial Engineering:

> The Bottleneck:

OpenAI needs astronomical compute, but lacks the AAA credit rating to borrow $250B+ from banks.

At the same time, Big Tech can't keep dumping all this debt directly onto their own balance sheets without Wall Street punishing their stock over skyrocketing Capex.

> The New Playbook (SPV + Vendor Guarantee):

SoftBank (SB Energy) sets up a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to build the power plants and facilities off-balance-sheet.

OpenAI signs on as the tenant, leasing the capacity (Power-as-a-Service).

Nvidia acts as the financial backstop.

They tell the lenders: "Issue the construction debt to the SPV. If OpenAI stumbles on rent, we’ll guarantee the debt service."

> The Payoff:

Nvidia uses its fortress balance sheet to unlock bank debt, guaranteeing that a 10 GW megacampus runs exclusively on its chips - turning financial backing into hundreds of billions in hardware sales.

Hardware giants are becoming the central banks of AI, and buildouts are morphing into massive infrastructure project finance (think nuclear plants, not software).

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

beautiful engineering

[Vaigue @VaigueMan]

They call it "The Tubes"

I used Seedance 2.0 to try some AI world building for a story I've been toying with. Really fun!

I ended up making all the images with Chat GPT Image 2.0. The prompt adherence for complicated requests was really good. I've abandoned midjourney for this one, the image look great, but the prompt adherence is really rough.

Seedance continues to be pretty great at understanding direction.

Music is from Suno. I personally recorded a very simple tune on the banjo and then ran that sample through the Suno cover function to get the song from the video. You can hear both below.
Original Banjo Recording: https://t.co/ffO3vEIZ34
Suno Cover: https://t.co/NU65XUgq2E

Thanks for watching!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio.

Details include:

1. The guarantees from Nvidia would help OpenAI lease a 10GW project that SoftBank is developing in Ohio

2. In total, the project could cost more than $500 billion, the largest data center project ever announced

3. The power for the project is controlled by the US government and funded separately by Japan under a recent trade deal

4. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is reportedly involved in deciding who will get the power

The data center buildout just hit a whole new level.

[َ @crashcrowns]

have to make everything about hollanov

[Peter H. Diamandis, MD @PeterDiamandis]

American golf courses use on the order of thirty times more water than all U.S. data centers combined. Even if AI workloads triple their water draw by 2030, credible projections still put total AI water use under about ten percent of golf’s irrigation footprint.

[@levelsio @levelsio]

🇪🇺 This year the European Union will again make more money from fining US tech companies

Than from the total tax income from Europe's own public tech companies!