Avery

Data, tech, knowledge, future, humanity

[Packy McCormick @packyM]

AI is very weird for me because normally I'd be the guy who'd argue that it's crazy we're not more excited about this miracle technology, but I completely get this sentiment.

AI companies have clearly botched telling the story. That's a big piece of this. Telling people, "We built this thing that is definitely going to take your job and hopefully we can figure out how to give you handouts or something on the other side, or come up with even better jobs or whatever, say thank you" is clearly terrible messaging.

Part of the issue is that what you need to say to raise tens of billions of dollars is very different from what you need to say to get the public excited. "This is definitely a better Google, it does some other cool stuff, too, and we think it's going to really help make you and your loved ones healthier" doesn't fund data centers.

Then there's the gap between hype and the average person's experience with AI. Models are getting more useful for a small number of people - if you're a coder or a mathematician or someone who wants to make software but never learned to code, the last few model upgrades have felt really big. That's like ~5% of people, maybe? 2%?

If you just want it to answer your questions or do your homework, it's gotten a little bit better, but it's also gotten better for everyone else, so it's not like you have a magic A+ machine all to yourself.

Meanwhile, that very small group for whom it's more useful (or who at least say it's more useful because they don't want to be the one who admits it's not) is flooding the zone telling people, "If you don't use these tools as much as / as well as I do, you are completely screwed. You're going to lose your job to me and my army of bots. You (and your kids) are going to be part of the permanent underclass." If you dare question how incredible it is, you are told that you just don't get it, either because you're not smart enough, are too low agency, or don't pay for the latest paid models, which are the really good ones and don't even bother with the free stuff, you dumb poor.

And you hear stories like the guy making an mRNA vaccine to fight his dog's cancer, which is awesome, and you're told that everyone will be able to have personalized medicine like that in the future, which sounds great. But like, are you, who can't even make a website with Claude Code, going to start using AlphaFold to whip up your own peptides? Are those dickbags telling you that they're going to be so much richer than you also going to live so much longer than you?? Plus, you hear creepy stories about AI encouraging people to kill themselves, and you know those people were probably unstable anyway and that AI is just a tool and it'll tell you whatever you want, but is it worth the risk?

Pretending to be afraid of it might be the best way to stop it from taking your job, which, remember, all of the leaders at the big labs are promising it will do, unless you want to go be a plumber or something, work with your hands (they will not, of course, but you, you should probably seriously consider getting your hands dirty).

Or maybe you're not pretending about being afraid, you actually are, which would be totally justified because the leaders of the big labs have told you to be afraid, that they're afraid, that these things are like nuclear weapons in the wrong hands and that there's a 10%? 25%? higher? chance that they'll kill us all, but it's worth the risk, because this is how society progresses. There's no turning back.

"We have achieved Recursive Self-Improvement!" they squawk. "This is the big one! Humans are really and truly useless meatbags now! Ha ha!"

And you're so confused, because most of the AI you actually encounter is slop. Poorly written social media posts, fake images, etc. Some of it is very funny, but if this is the stuff that's definitely going to take your job and then probably kill you, you don't quite see how? Are you that replaceable?

Would you be more excited than concerned? Or would you be more concerned than excited?

Personally, I'm excited, because I think LLMs are overhyped.

We'll spend bajillions of dollars on inference in a Red Queen's Race, the slop will runneth over, some people will certainly lose their jobs, but a lot of things will genuinely improve, and a lot of people will end up being able to do more at their job than they can now.

Plus, the non-chatbots, the models that power embodied AI and help crack biology, are showing early signs that they're going to be magical. In the past week or so, Travis Kalanick, Bob McGrew, and RJ Scaringe all said they're going to be building AI-powered factories. Yann LeCun raised $1 billion for world models to accelerate AI's impact on the physical world.

Robots can play tennis now. We'll all have personal tennis coaches or coaches who teach us anything we want when we're around, and spend the rest of their days making our beds, doing our laundry, cooking healthy, delicious meals.

The near future is going to be insanely cool, and different in all sorts of ways, some of which we can predict, and some of which we can't.

But my god you weirdos need to stop shilling your dystopian fantasies to the people if you ever want them to feel more excited than concerned.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

The alternative is to leverage capital to generate income instead of exchanging hours for dollars.

Leveraging human capital (labor) simply passes the responsibility on to the next person, so the problem continues. Leveraging tech and IP seems to be the only escape

[Jenni @hashjenni]

I honestly hate this system of working 8-9 hours a day and then going home to having about 4 hours to yourself which includes getting ready for the next day??? This is not life.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

@_gaberivas Everyone has to have an opinion 🤷

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

Creativity and intellect are tools you must sharpen as they become dull overtime.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

@_gaberivas Saw a denim guy on a 14er once. Mans was fighting his demons

[Sam Altman @sama]

one of the easiest policy wins i can imagine for the US is to reform high-skill immigration.

the fact that many of the most talented people in the world want to be here is a hard-won gift; embracing them is the key to keeping it that way.

hard to get this back if we lose it.

[Rueben Hewitt @FitFastCoach]

36 years on this planet. 19 years in the gym.

Here’s every fitness secret I’ve learned:

1. Eat fish a few times per week.

You’ll lose more fat, even if you eat the same number of calories. This is backed by research and personal experience.

[Tim Urban @waitbutwhy]

Whether you're optimistic or pessimistic about the future, the fact is that we're facing existential risk at worst and a vastly different future world at best.

The world we're used to very well might not be around for that much longer, so let's really enjoy this world while we have it.

Visit the places you've always wanted to visit.

Dive into that hobby you've always wanted to try.

Spend quality time with your loved ones.

Savor each sunny Saturday, each great meal, each moment of fun.

If we end up looking back on these days with great nostalgia, we want to at least know we made the most of the time we had.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

@TayMar22 What about you?

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

@TayMar22 These days, probably stoicism. Seems the most practical to me, but I don’t like to pigeon hole myself either

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

@TayMar22 Yeah I agree with that. And I think Stoics also want to eliminate the subconcious, or trivial, desire in favor of more meaningful ones. I guess where they differ is paths to fulfillment: desire challenging things, or pursue peace by eliminating desires.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

@TayMar22 Stoics, I think, are still materialists at the end of the day. Desire is acceptable through embarrassing the struggle. You can be a rich man and a stoic, but it’s hard to be a rich man as a Buddhist.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

@TayMar22 I think it’s two schools of thought. The Buddhist leads their life effortlessly by omitting desire. Desires lead to obstacles, so by omitting desire, life is effortless. Fullfilemt through omission.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

Everyone seeks fulfillment, either directly or indirectly.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

@JustFreshKicks Corny as hell

[Bilawal Sidhu @bilawalsidhu]

What a week for AI! Not yet scary, but a feeling is in the air. Things are heating up and people are conflicted.

Why are the brightest minds in AI asking for a 6 month pause, while others say it doesn't go far enough? 🤯

Here's why this debate deserves our attention.

🧵 Thread

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

There’s truth in both arguments. We should look ahead before we walk, but it is impossible to prepare for the problems we’ll face ahead.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

This is a good thought experiment:

If the best-case scenario of AI is enhanced human welfare, but the worst-case scenario is existential to human survival, should guardrails be in place to regulate the risk of a worst-case scenario?

…

[David Deutsch @DavidDeutschOxf]

Not signing. Overall, it reads to me like "we shouldn't make anything whose effects we can't prophesy, so let's begin by giving the world's totalitarian governments and organised criminals a chance to catch up".

Incidentally, it implicitly confuses AI with AGI.

[Avery @averycoolkiddd]

But having a stated set of moral principles to guide progress seems valuable (Declaration of Independence, Universal Declaration of Human Rights).