@Jason Definitely can’t beat $ABAT. Battery recycling and Lithium extraction in Nevada. Make sure you catch up with @chamath about the massive opportunity in this space….
@deanharvey0511@grok@elonmusk Also look at $ABAT - they are creating a domestic supply chain of battery materials through recycling and extraction in Nevada. @grok can explain more
@chamath@8090solutions Can you give any update to your battery material company/investment? Any macro insights you find interesting or future guidance in the battery material space?
$ABAT why I am still invested. Yes, IM STILL HERE AND I KNOW THEYRE GONNA DO IT.
Ticker Symbol: $ABAT
Investment Thesis: American Battery Technology Company (ABTC) – The $10 Billion Moonshot Hiding in Plain Sight
Listen, the world’s obsessed with lithium—EV batteries, grid storage, the whole decarbonization circus. Everyone’s chasing the same tired playbook: dig up spodumene in Australia, pump brines in Chile, or throw sulfuric acid at clay and call it innovation. It’s a $50 billion market today, heading to $200 billion by 2030, and yet the incumbents are sleepwalking—high costs, dirty processes, and supply chains that scream fragility. Meanwhile, ABTC’s sitting there, a $200 million market cap speck, quietly building a dual-barreled machine that could 10x your money in five years. Here’s why I’d slam the table and back this truck up.
1. First-Principles Disruption: Lithium Without the Bullshit
ABTC’s cracking the code on two fronts—primary lithium from Nevada claystone and recycled lithium from battery scrap—without the abrasive, planet-choking chemicals everyone else leans on. Their clay extraction? Selective leaching, no acids, 92% recovery at pilot scale. Their recycling? Hydrometallurgy that’s already spitting out battery-grade lithium hydroxide at 115% of design capacity since Fall 2023. This isn’t some science experiment; it’s a scalable, low-cost middle finger to the $30/kg status quo. Tesla’s sniffing around the same saline playbook—ABTC’s just doing it quieter, with ex-Gigafactory engineers who’ve already shipped at scale. The old guard’s stuck in 20th-century mining; ABTC’s rewriting the rulebook.
2. Structural Tailwinds: Uncle Sam’s Printing Press and a Hungry Market
The U.S. government’s throwing cash at domestic critical minerals like it’s confetti—$241 million in DOE grants and tax credits already in ABTC’s pocket, de-risking their $785 million Tonopah refinery and $300 million recycling expansion. Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law—this is a federal blank check for anyone who can onshore lithium. Add in EV demand growing 25% a year through 2030 (IEA’s numbers, not mine), and you’ve got BASF and others begging for ABTC’s offtake. Lithium prices might be wobbly—$15/kg today after $80/kg peaks—but even at these levels, ABTC’s cost structure (no acid plants, cheap saline tech) prints money. This is a supply-demand mismatch begging for a winner.
3. Capital Efficiency: Recycling Cash Fuels the Rocket
Here’s the kicker: ABTC’s first recycling plant (20,000 tonnes/year) is already cash-flow positive—say $80-100 million a year at conservative estimates. Their second plant (100,000 tonnes/year) is half-funded by a $144 million DOE grant, and when it’s live by 2026, you’re looking at $400-500 million in annual profit potential. That’s self-funding firepower to chip away at the Tonopah refinery’s capex, reducing dilution and debt reliance. Compare that to Lithium Americas burning $500 million to maybe hit production in 2027. ABTC’s not just a miner—it’s a circular economy beast, turning trash into treasure while the market yawns.
4. Asymmetric Upside: $200M to $10B in Plain Sight
ABTC’s trading at $1 a share, $200 million market cap, with a path to $1-2 billion in revenue by 2028—30,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide from the refinery, plus 120,000 tonnes of recycled feedstock. At a 5-10x revenue multiple (Albemarle’s at 7x today), that’s a $5-10 billion company. You’re buying a lottery ticket with a 25-50x upside if they execute. Sure, permitting could slip past 2025, or scale-up could hiccup—20-30% risk of stumbles—but the team’s built Gigafactories, the tech’s validated, and the feds are all-in. This isn’t a hope-and-pray SPAC; it’s a coiled spring.
5. The Contrarian Edge: Everyone’s Missing It
Wall Street’s drooling over Tesla’s flash or Albemarle’s scale, ignoring ABTC because it’s small, scrappy, and doesn’t scream “blue-chip.” Analysts barely cover it—perfect. The herd’s wrong, like they were on Tesla at $40 pre-split or SpaceX pre-Starlink. ABTC’s not sexy yet; it’s a grinder with a moat—proprietary tech, U.S.-centric supply, and a cost curve that could drop below $10/kg. When lithium prices rebound or China chokes exports (again), this thing’s a rocket.
The Play?
Dump $10 million into ABTC at $1. Permitting clears by mid-2025, recycling scales by 2027, refinery’s online by 2028. Lithium hits $20/kg, and they’re pumping $1.5 billion in EBITDA. Stock’s at $25-50, your $10 million’s $125-250 million. Worst case? Tech falters, they limp along on recycling, and you’re flat or down 50%. Best case? They redefine North American lithium, and you’re sitting on a 100-bagger. I’d take that bet all day—fortune favors the bold, not the benchmark huggers.