Bg2 Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w @altcap & @bgurley on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

Who wants a BGGB pod w @altcap & @GavinSBaker next week talking all things AI, @SpaceX & the fight for capitalism? 🇺🇸🚀

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

Market triggers. 💰💰📈

[podcast alpha @podcast_alpha_x]

The AI market rally in 2026 has one anchor. It's private.

https://t.co/d0Cb6DvoVv

@altcap Gerstner holds Anthropic equity with non-public financial access. His claim: without Anthropic's 2026 revenue delivery, the market would be down 10-15% right now.

Not NVIDIA. Not OpenAI launches. Anthropic's profit path.

High gross margins and a path to positive FCF in Q2 2026 triggered the market's ascent out of a deep correction. One private company validated that AI revenue was real and profitable.

The anchor is private. The companies depending on it are public.

If Anthropic's next revenue update disappoints, every AI-correlated position loses its primary justification.

Source: TBPN (@tbpn) - https://t.co/01u24nazHY

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

🧐🧐🧐

[Jamin Ball @jaminball]

We now know the SpaceX / Anthropic deal was for 325k GPUs! Have to make some assumptions on the mix shift of type of GPUs, but this probably translates to ~450mw

This translates to ~$33m / MW / Year. About 3x "market rate" but this feels like a short term "surge pricing" deal

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

👀👀👀

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

Anthropic has confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Pending completion of SEC review, this gives us the option to pursue an initial public offering.

Read more: https://t.co/onGZAhRLvD

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

👀👀👀

[Ibrahim Ajami @IbrahimAjami]

Brad @altcap at his best

True love for giving

https://t.co/l65y17gApH via @YouTube

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

An important warning - a small group of activists shut down clean nuclear power - and now they are trying to do the same data centers. It would plunge the country into a recession, high unemployment & risk our national security to China. 🇺🇸

[TBPN @tbpn]

"Lest we be overconfident in Silicon Valley, let's remember a small group of activists shut down supersonic technology, and all nuclear energy in this country. It's a disaster."

@altcap explains why a data center moratorium would be "horrific" for America:

"All of our GDP growth is coming from the fact that we are building data centers and driving productivity improvements in the economy."

"A data center moratorium would thrust us straight into a recession and high unemployment."

"Secondly, it would cede the entire global game to China. Overnight, we would lose to China in the global AI race. Which is not just about AI, it's about economic security, jobs, and national security."

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

Would anybody watch? BGGB? 🧐💰🚀

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

@altcap Love it thanks my friend. Let’s do a BGGB episode sometime

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

Congrats to @AltimeterCap and @benchmark on the @cerebras IPO. Attached below is the Investor lock-up release schedule - the “dribble lock up” @altcap mentioned on @CNBC @HalftimeReport today. There is also talk the dribble lock will be used for @SpaceX & future IPOs. 🇺🇸📈🚀

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

🔥🔥🇺🇸🇺🇸

[Michael Dell 🇺🇸 @MichaelDell]

Robert Reich forgot the 6th and most common way:

6) Build something millions of people actually want

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

🧐🧐 @altcap @bgurley

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Back-of-envelope numbers for 1 gigawatt data center:

All-in Capex: ~$50 bn
Enterprise revenue generated: ~$25-30 bn/year
Electricity cost: $1-2 bn/year

~2 year payback.

The boom is real.

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

🧐💥

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

$NVDA CEO: “Inference demand will go up by a billion times.”

We are just in the very early innings.

Compute demand will likely grow by another 10x over the next decade and current TAM projections for GPU/CPU will look too conservative in hindsight.

$AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

As discussed on the pod, federalism is a beautiful thing - people & companies have choices. Delaware losing. Texas winning. FAFO. 🇺🇸🇺🇸 @GregAbbott_TX @bgurley

[Leave Delaware @LeaveDelaware]

🚨BREAKING: DELL Technologies (NYSE: $DELL ) Has Filed to LEAVE DELAWARE for Texas

$137 BILLION market cap.

The filing points to a $1 BILLION Delaware settlement Dell paid in 2023.

$266.7 MILLION of it went straight to the attorneys.

Why Texas:

- Reduces frivolous, opportunistic lawsuits

- Business-friendly regulatory framework built for growth

- A new Business Court designed for complex corporate disputes

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

Accelerating at massive scale! 🧐🧐📈

[Jamin Ball @jaminball]

Cloud Giants Update:

AWS (Amazon): $150B run rate growing 28% YoY (last Q grew 24%)

Azure (Microsoft): ~$108B run rate (estimate) growing 39% YoY (last Q grew 38%)

Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $80B run rate growing 63% YoY (last Q grew 48%, neither are cc)

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

As we discussed in E5 on BG2! https://t.co/7375O2MYM2

[Bill Gurley @bgurley]

https://t.co/X3MLBWJNMo

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

Should have never been in doubt - but great news - @DiabloCanyonCA will remain open! Now they should build new reactors on sites 3 & 4 sponsored & paid for by Google & Meta. 2x good clean energy output in 8 yrs! 💥🇺🇸🚀@bgurley @altcap

[NRC @NRCgov]

#NRCNews:✅We've renewed the operating licenses of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant for an additional 20 years, marking the 99th and 100th renewed commercial reactor operating licenses. https://t.co/JtKpbuU6vt

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

BG2 December 2024. 👀👀

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

Satya Nadela is basically describing the death of the traditional SaaS model.

Explains the AI agentic future, and where the "value" lives.

Because business logic is moving from the software application to the AI agents.

Currently, you buy software for its specific features and rules.

Nadella argues that in the future, software apps will essentially become dumb databases ("CRUD") or simple tools.

The AI Agent will hold all the intelligence, orchestration, and reasoning, simply updating the databases as needed. The software becomes a commodity; the AI becomes the "brain" and the worker.

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Video from Bg2 Pod Youtube Channel (link in comment)

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

@IbrahimAjami 💪🚀🇦🇪🇦🇪

[Bg2 Pod @BG2Pod]

👀👀@theallinpod @altcap

[Altimeter Capital @AltimeterCap]

Wall Street has Nvidia growing at 7% by 2029. Brad (@altcap) put the number directly to Jensen.

Jensen: "They just don't understand the scale and the breadth of AI."