Bryan

No investment advice. Views are my own.

[Bryan @bitcoin_bry]

@AnalystEgg Buffalo Chip Saloon

[Citrini @citrini]

People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable.

A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations.

The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around.

Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets.

But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.

[Bryan @bitcoin_bry]

@offtherunbonds Good work!

[Historyland @HistorylandHQ]

A 1923 cartoon that imagined machine made art 100 years in the future.

[Bryan @bitcoin_bry]

@dampedspring Andy- do you have any thoughts on the ORCL bonds being issued today. Do you think they are a compelling risk/ return?

If not, what is the right level?

[Bryan @bitcoin_bry]

@Polymarket @grok what is the source

[Bryan @bitcoin_bry]

@lord_fed Still adding ORCL?

[Bryan @bitcoin_bry]

@paulg @grok how long would this take if you reinvested dividends

[Bryan @bitcoin_bry]

@PFTCommenter @grok what kind of dog is this

[FOX Sports @FOXSports]

"We'll see you later tonight."

21 years ago today, @davidortiz hit a walk-off home run in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Yankees... the rest is history.

[PFT Commenter @PFTCommenter]

Nonzero chance that the pope is currently watching the hot dog contest

[Compound248 💰 @compound248]

I’m not crying; you’re crying.

No standing ovation has ever been more well-earned…

[Bryan @bitcoin_bry]

@dampedspring Tyler Durden

[Tyler @Tyfit]

Has anyone been arrested for this yet

[TIME @TIME]

TIME's new cover: The dire wolf is back after over 10,000 years. Here's what that means for other extinct species https://t.co/LQtosdfiEf

[Jonathan Ferro @FerroTV]

Huge difference between a shock to the cycle vs a shock to the system.

Is this the start of negotiations or are these the new rules of the game?

The uncertainty is leading to an immediate repricing of the cycle. It will take much longer to fully internalize a shock to the system.

@elerianm will join us to kickoff special programing at 5PM ET @BloombergTV

[Lloyd Blankfein @lloydblankfein]

The switchboard at the WH must be burning up with gov’ts trying to surrender in this trade war. Why not give them a chance? Make the 10pct min tariff immediate but defer the “reciprocal” part 6 mos. Take the win! The Prez said he’d make us tired of winning…I’m there now!

[Tim Urban @waitbutwhy]

If everyone always slept 6 hours a night, and a company came out with a drug that made people feel like they slept 8 hours—enhancing their energy, mood, patience, intelligence, and creativity, while also making them look great, boosting their immune system, and increasing their life expectancy—everyone would take it. So why do I stay up those last 2 hours every night?