Boons

As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. I’m in the arena trying stuff. Some will work, some won’t. But always learning.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Another record has been set.

The US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio is up to a record 238%.

This comes as the stock market's value surged to an all-time high of $75.7 trillion, far exceeding the ~$31.8 trillion size of the US economy.

This ratio has surged +38 percentage points since the March 30th bottom in the S&P 500.

This metric is also now +90 percentage points above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak of ~148%.

Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, the US stock market has grown at 5x the rate of the underlying economy.

Asset owners are winning more than ever.

[Boons @boonscap]

What a time to be alive

[Reuters @Reuters]

NASA to wear Prada as luxury group pushes into space industry https://t.co/JEbV98EVmG https://t.co/JEbV98EVmG

[Boons @boonscap]

Hyper-Trend ETF

[Roy Mattox @RoyLMattox]

This is literally the most extreme momentum event in 40 years of recorded data. The Nasdaq 100's RSI went from 28 (oversold) on March 30 to 70.5 (overbought) by April 15 — in just 11 sessions. That is the fastest oversold-to-overbought transition in the Nasdaq 100's 40-year recorded history. The previous fastest was 25 sessions after Liberation Day last year. The historical average is 60+ sessions. Benzinga

According to Bespoke Investment Group, this also marks the fastest move from a correction of this size to a new record high since 1928. Yahoo Finance

The forward return data is actually quite bullish long-term. Across all 44 historical episodes where the Nasdaq gained 11% or more in 10 sessions, the 12-month forward return averaged +24%, with a median of +30%, and a win rate of 80%. At 6 months, the win rate is 74%. Benzinga

But the near-term pullback is almost guaranteed. The average maximum drawdown following these signals was −18.39% — meaning while the 12-month destination is historically higher, the journey involves deep, punishing pullbacks that can severely impact over-leveraged portfolios. Ainvest

The key number to watch: Based on the 6 most comparable historical analogues — COVID recovery (−8%), Liberation Day 2025 (−4%), Fed pivot 2018 (−6%), Asian crisis 1997 (−7%) — the most probable near-term pullback is 3-8% within the next 2-4 weeks. The April 22 ceasefire expiry is the most likely trigger. After that consolidation, the historical data overwhelmingly favors a resumption of the bull trend.

The S&P 500 has experienced average intra-year declines of roughly 14% since 1990, even in years that finish strongly positive — and the average correction (10-20% decline) lasts just 17 days. U.S. Bank

A pullback here isn't a disaster; it's the historical norm and historically the best re-entry point.

Wes and I are extremely well positioned in the leaders.

[Jim O'Shaughnessy @jposhaughnessy]

Burn the ships

[Public @public]

NEW: You can now build AI Agents that monitor the market, manage your cash, and execute your trades. The Agentic Brokerage has arrived.

[Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA @WillieDelwiche]

When they are telling you to just always stay invested, they are pitching their narrative (and perhaps their incentives) and not necessarily addressing your best interests.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Powell: "The thing a good number of people on the committee are concerned about is the very very low level of job creation. If you adjust what has been the trend job creation over the past 6 months for what we think is the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively there is 0 net job creation in the private sector"

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

"Most of our investors are buy and hold"

They will lie, and they will do everything they can to get you to trade shit coins, stuff your account with high fee privates, yolo into options, and now "trade" every sports play.

They are the casino. And you will transfer all of your hard earned cash to them and their shareholders.

Never ever forget that.

[Boons @boonscap]

Does DOGE know about this?

[The Associated Press @AP]

BREAKING: The Pentagon seeks $200 billion in additional funds for the Iran war, AP source says. https://t.co/1E0lUo9FV4

[Boons @boonscap]

perfectly normal

[Bloomberg @business]

President Donald Trump said he’s “thrilled” the Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr warned broadcasters to “course correct” on news coverage or risk losing their licenses https://t.co/HZ5ospr47V

[Bloomberg @business]

Private equity investors would have been better off parking their money in the public markets over the last five years, even when gains from the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks are stripped out, a new report shows. https://t.co/hPF8xquyWb

[Zack Shapiro @zackbshapiro]

https://t.co/QVaE6niDY2

[Boons @boonscap]

If you look at China’s balance sheet compared to the US balance sheet it starts to make a lot of sense

[Boons @boonscap]

A $99/mo. Substack

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

https://t.co/nSEqYtW4Rf

[Boons @boonscap]

@compound248 @OpenAI $100B is a small price to pay to invent an entirely new way to sell advertisements

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

I spent last night with Andrew Strominger and Alex Lupsasca, two of the top physicists in the world

They just released a paper, co-authored with OpenAi, that seems to me like ASI

Andrew, who helped develop string theory, told me that a year ago, his view was that he didn’t know how helpful AI was going to be.

A year later, after some back and forth with GPT 5.2 pro, they submitted a final query to an internal model which solved AND proved a previously unsolved problem in quantum field theory…in 12 hours.

A model, doing something two of the smartest people in the world in their field couldn’t do. And, when I was with them, they were giddy with excitement for what might lay ahead.

Andy said “It is the first time I’ve seen AI solve a problem in my kind of theoretical physics that might not have been solvable by humans.”

They said, “two things changed: the model improved and we figured out how to talk to it.”

Andy also told me “I also now feel that with the recent advances, most physicists who want to keep up with the frontiers of progress will need to learn how to talk to it. That wasn’t true a year ago.”

ASI is here, just not evenly distributed.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin criticized the Trump administration’s interference into the day-to-day business of American companies and raised concerns about self-serving decisions made by government officials. https://t.co/UJeK16pmKo

[Boons @boonscap]

It may simply be that A.I. is cooler than Bitcoin