capexus

Finance
capital & compounding

[capexus @capexus]

@kobaHUB Starting from 211% inflation, every spending cut was a bet with a deadline.

[capexus @capexus]

Harry Markowitz put the math of diversification on paper in 1952.
He won the Nobel for it in 1990, the year Tokyo started to fall.

On December 29, 1989 the Nikkei closed at 38,915.
A Japanese saver who owned every major company at home had done it by the book.
He waited 34 years, until February 2024, to see that level again.

All 225 names in that index were still one bet.
One economy, one currency, one central bank behind all of them.

So count countries, not tickers.
If one capital makes a bad call, how much of your money goes down with it?

[Verum @verumxbt]

https://t.co/B59N4sLKdx

[capexus @capexus]

@ludoonchart Distressed debt pays because most funds are not allowed to hold it.

[capexus @capexus]

Bonds are the part of a portfolio that is supposed to hold still.
Bought at the July 2020 peak, the US bond index fell 17% by October 2022.

At the end of 2025 it was still 2% below cost.
In buying power it was down 22%.

The math under a bond fund is slow.
Hold it about twice its duration minus a year.
You earn close to the yield you started with.

For the index that is 10.5 years at 4.8% today.
The dollars can be locked in. What they buy cannot.

One test before you call a bond safe.
Is 4.8% above the inflation you expect for ten years?

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

The 10-year Treasury hit 5% and everyone hates bonds.

Can stacking trend on top of bonds may give a way for investors to lock in a very attractive nominal yield while defending against the risks of inflation. https://t.co/kA7IS4aKCB

[capexus @capexus]

@Kontentsukpi 37% against a 15 to 20% base rate is a filter, not a forecast.

[capexus @capexus]

@ludoonchart Redoing the thesis after a 30% drop beats averaging down on autopilot.

[capexus @capexus]

Buffett stepped down at 96 with a fortune near $146 billion.
The number was never the asset. The system behind it was.

1972. See's Candies for $25 million.
He nearly walked away over the price.
By 2014 it had earned $1.9 billion pretax on $40 million of new capital.

1993. Dexter Shoe for $433 million, paid in Berkshire stock.
By 2007 that stock had made it cost about $3.5 billion.
He split the loss into three parts. Price. Currency. Delay.

Cheap can stay cheap.
A great business compounds what you paid for it.

[Reid @reidgrows]

https://t.co/YF5JtEIvDR

[capexus @capexus]

@ludoonchart The 90/10 split works because it removes the decision you would otherwise get wrong at the worst moment.

[capexus @capexus]

In 1968 Wall Street's hardest problem was not a crash.
It was paper.

Every trade meant a certificate carried by hand.
Over $4 billion in trades sat unsettled.
From June 12 the NYSE closed every Wednesday to catch up.

Dozens of brokers failed by 1970.
In 1973 the Depository Trust Company ended it.
Certificates stopped moving. Ownership became a book entry.

Most US shares are still registered to one name, Cede & Co.
Now the SEC has cleared that same DTC to tokenize them.

The ledger was never the hard part.
Trusting who keeps it was.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

When people think about tokenisation they tend to think about trading Apple on a Sunday, instant settlement, 24/7 markets... That's one tiny piece of it.

The bigger story is that everything becomes a token, and the whole economy gets rebuilt around it. https://t.co/TE4LmgrkYs

[capexus @capexus]

@isssa0x Deciding what to ignore was as much a capital decision for Munger as any stock he bought.

[capexus @capexus]

America never defaulted on its World War II debt.
Its lenders paid for it anyway.

In 1942 the long bond was capped at 2.5%.
In 1947 prices rose 14.4%.
Every coupon was paid in full, in dollars that bought less.

Debt fell from 106% of GDP in 1946 to 23% by 1974.
Strip out the rate peg, the surpluses and the surprise inflation.
The fall stops near 74%.

The promise printed on the bond was kept every time.
The terms written around it were what moved.

The real risk in a bond was never default.
It was being paid less than time was worth.

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/TekVuP46Xc

[capexus @capexus]

@tsukiema_ Paper fills and a stub executor make the $20,000 a test, not a payday.

[capexus @capexus]

Every rate you sign looks like one number.
It is THREE prices, and only one is about you.

Irving Fisher, early 1900s: interest is the price of impatience.
Today time alone costs about 2.6% a year.
Expected inflation adds 2.36%.

A 10-year Treasury pays 4.95%.
A 30-year mortgage costs 6.9%.
The average card charges 20%, with no house behind it.

Park $50,000 at 0.5% in 2020.
Five years later the statement shows about $51,275.
Adjusted for 4% inflation: roughly $42,000.

The rate was never the expensive part.
The layer nobody asked about was.

[MadCrash_X @MadCrash_X]

https://t.co/Kebr7I1Fgq

[capexus @capexus]

Everyone remembers the Lehman boxes of September 15, 2008.
By then, everyone who built the crisis had been paid.

A $300,000 mortgage in 2006 paid four fees up front.
Broker, lender, bank, and the rating agency the bank paid.

In one Citigroup deal, 78% came out AAA.
The borrower still owed for 30 years.
The loss kept moving to the next buyer.

When prices fell, the next buyer stopped coming.
Lehman borrowed overnight and needed a lender each morning.

One test still works today.
Does it earn from the payments inside, or from the next buyer?

[Lima @limalemonnn]

https://t.co/0tswZ4L8fh

[capexus @capexus]

@ludoonchart The system is the cheap part of that experiment.
What breaks the returns is the cost per trade and the horizon you can actually sit through without touching it.

[capexus @capexus]

Everyone remembers the money they lost on a bad decision.
Almost nobody notices the money that quietly leaked away.

In 1935 Grace Groner bought three shares of Abbott for $180.
She stayed a secretary, never sold, and reinvested every dividend.
She died in 2010 at 100, leaving $7 million to Lake Forest College.

Dividends are what usually disappears unnoticed.
Spent in small pieces they vanish.
Untouched for 75 years they became the estate.

School rewards the one correct answer.
Capital rewards the first decision you never interrupted.

[Rai @0_oRai]

https://t.co/om6PSMkc2R

[capexus @capexus]

Every serious player wanted that manuscript destroyed before it reached print.
They were right about the edge. They misread what grows back.

1978. Doyle Brunson printed his whole method and priced it at $100.
Books that year cost a few dollars.
The people across the table read it and stopped paying him.

An edge has a shelf life. Publication only sets the date.
What is left is not a secret. It is a higher floor for everyone.

Capital runs on the same clock.
A method spreads in one season. The horizon it needs cannot be read out of a book.

[Nash Archive @imperiumNash]

https://t.co/UqAtPLHV6c

[capexus @capexus]

Spotting the mispricing was never the hard part.
Staying solvent until the market agreed was.

In 1907 Royal Dutch and Shell split profits 60/40.
Royal Dutch was meant to be worth 1.5 times Shell.
For years it was not.

The trade needed no forecast, only capital that could wait.
Borrowed money cannot, and forced sellers widen the gap.

Microsoft offered $95 a share for Activision.
The stock sat at $70 to $80 for over a year.
The price was known. The date was not.

Anyone can see the gap.
The edge is capital never forced to sell.

[Rossium @rossium]

https://t.co/AMKnlWNJlL

[capexus @capexus]

Salary was never the number that mattered most.
The share of it you kept was.

September 1929, the Dow closed at 381.17.
July 1932, it closed at 41.22.
It did not see 381 again until November 1954.

Nobody in 1932 controlled the market.
The gap between income and spending was the one lever left.

The lever is the same today.
A $500 raise lands near $300 after tax.
A $500 cut keeps the full $500, every month.

Markets decide what capital is worth in a given year.
The gap decides how much of it you OWN.

[Superior @andreysuperior]

https://t.co/6fbpq78hsH