Crypto Lama

[Jamie Coutts CMT @Jamie1Coutts]

The Blockchain Thesis.
AI AGENTS automate digital commerce.
Digital commerce at machine speed needs MACHINE-NATIVE PAYMENTS.
Machine-native payments need PROGRAMMABLE MONEY.
The programmable money winning is STABLECOINS.
Stablecoins need SETTLEMENT RAILS.
The settlement rails are BLOCKCHAINS.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@decodejar 💯💯💯

[Atlas @AtlasTradez]

Claim: we are in the early stage of the euphoria wave or alt szn observed each cycle.

Expanding a little from some content that @Osemka8 has put out regarding the correlation between small cap stock index ( $IWM ) and crypto here.

Providing a chart here with TOTAL market cap (purple), $BTC (blue), IWM (black) correlations through previous two cycles.

IWM: What stands out to me is that we see a series of local ranges established each risk cycle. Typically get a bottom (green line) consistent with a retest of the previous range highs (exception being COVID), followed by a breakout of range (orange line), and an eventual top (red line) that so far has been consistent with a 2.0 fib extension of the previous range.

BTC/TOTAL: Following this range breakout, we have seen the euphoric alt szn wave in crypto, both in TOTAL market cap and BTC. This is typically capped at the 2.0 fib extension of the IWM. It's at that point where, divergences between TOTAL and BTC is the warning sign that the cycle end is nearing and greed has been exploited.

Currently IWM is in the early breakout phase, all while we are seeing a breakdown in BTC.D and relative strength in ALTs, which have yet to put in any meaningful new ATHs.

In a cycle marked by institutional adoption and the first meaningful consumer apps produced, typical vibe-based top signals aren't going to make sense as the bar is raised each cycle. I do not personally see the ETF/DATs as a top signal, as much as a catalyst for an alt szn breakout.

So to take a stance technically, I do not see support for being bearish. More charts to support this coming...

[Alex Becker 🍊🏆🥇 @ZssBecker]

It's sad I have to remind people of this.

The way alt season will work is by this schedule

-Bitcoin runs ✅
-ETH surpasses ATH 🟨(in progress)
-Speculation rolls to top 25 alts (pending)
-Fomo hits, money rolls into mid caps
-Degeneracy hits, $$ goes into low caps
-Crash
-(Cycle then resets for its next leg and this repeates OR bull ends)

At each stage the gains increase from their lows.

Top 25 will 2-3x
Mid caps with 3-5x
Low caps will 5-7x
(With breakout out exceptions in each stage doing much higher multiples)

Everything will bleed against ETH till it cleanly passes it's all time high.

This is basic crypto cycle 101 yet I see countless people posting how BTC and ETH are out performing alts.

It's weird. Anyone with any time in crypto should know this.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

There is a Bitcoin cycle - just not what many think.

It mirrors the business cycle.

Bitcoin tops when it tops.

Bitcoin goes parabolic when it inflects.

Bitcoin's "ramp" length = Time until inflection

Bitcoin has always topped 14 months after inflection.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

My base case for those who don't get the nuanced view:

BTC.D rejected at 0.786 Fib Level (66%) just like it was rejected at 0.618 Fib level (60%) last year.

ALT/BTC is up because ETH/BTC is up
But ALT/ETH is bleeding
So ETH is better than ALTs.
Remember ALT/BTC pairs have found a local low every June from 2022-2025).

ALT/BTC rally will likely end by late August at the latest
BTC.D rally in Sep-Oct

ETH/BTC higher low in Sep/Oct
ALT/BTC pairs lower low in Sep/Oct (could be beginning of Nov).

Hard to know if the next rally by BTC.D leads to a higher high even if ALT/BTC pairs put in a lower low (as it depends on how high the next higher low is for ETH/BTC).

Look at what ALT/BTC pairs did from July-August of 2017 and see how they still dropped to 0.25 by late October.

Look at how while ALT/BTC pairs are up, ALT/ETH pairs are down 40% since ETH "went home."

I could be wrong about any one of these views, but these are my views.

When something I posted above is inevitably wrong, you are welcome to post this receipt and laugh.

Also, I'm not talking about your alt.

[Jason Appleton (Crypto Crow) @jasonappleton]

IF, I say, IF, this cycle matched or was close to 2021, Cardano would be expected to Peak approx Feb 2026.

[ionicXBT @theionicXBT]

Fuck it.

Most of you will IGNORE this.

But here’s EXACTLY what I’m watching,

To know when to SELL this #crypto bull run:

It’s very simple.

Straight to the point.

No bluff.

No none sense.

1. $BTC dominance under 45%, means alts run is nearly over.

2. USDT dominance below 3%, means everyone’s all-in

3. DXY falls below 95, means dollar will start getting strong

4. BTC exchange inflows, means whales starting to sell

5. Alt market cap (Total3) crosses $1.2T

6. SPX tops, risk-off returns

7. Global M2 slows or drops

8. Fed signals rate hikes again

9. BTC to one million targets reappear again.

10.12–18months after halving = cycle peak window (Q4 2025)

When more of these line up,

I exit everything.

Because I’m not here to hold through a -90% crash.

I’m here to win, disappear, and re-enter when it’s all dead again.

Like this tweet if you are with me.

This is your final cycle if you do it right.

Follow me and I’ll make sure you win.

But it won’t be easy.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

You guys all need to learn patience...

This was 2017. Very similar macro structure:

5 x 28%+ pullbacks in BTC
Most lasted 2 to 3 months before a new high
Alts saw 65% corrections.
All were noise.

Go do something else more constructive than stare at the screen.

[Sina 🗝️⚡ BI Report @Snz_BTC]

On Nov 20th, Bitcoin price first reached $96K. Three months later, we are at the same price.

But the difference is that the realized cap has increased from $700B to $860B.

$160B of net new capital is absorbed in merely 3 months.

A whopping 22% increase in net new money.

This is $1.78 billion dollars every single day.

Every day is progress!

Don't get confused by temporary consolidation and see behind the curtain.

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

During the uncertainty associated with the transition from Biden to Trump, the velocity (V) of money is rolling over, suggesting that monetary policy is tighter than the Fed may understand. I discuss this hypothesis in our In the Know webinar (link below), including charts.

V can either turbocharge the impact of money on GDP, as it did during COVID, or detract from money growth, as it is starting to do now. On a year-over-year basis, V growth peaked at 11% in 2022 and has dropped to ~1%. During December, growth in M2 was 3.9% YOY, so V growth added another 1%, taking nominal GDP growth to ~5%.

More important at the moment, V declined ~1% sequentially from the third quarter to fourth quarter and probably is depressing GDP growth in the first quarter, which makes sense. Velocity can drop if individuals and companies become uncertain, fearful, or cautious.

Targeting waste, abuse, and fraud in government, @DOGE has put federal government employees on notice and on edge, but the impact could be much more pervasive. Federal government employment accounts for only 1.9% of total employment in the US, but state and local governments, education, health care, and social services account for another ~28%.

In other words, today nearly a third of the labor force, and perhaps their families, could be holding back on spending until they see the impact of rapid policy changes. While we believe the changes will be net positive for the economy - perhaps massively so - the short term uncertainty is palpable. After benefiting from preemptive buying in the fourth quarter to get ahead of tariff hikes, Walmart shocked the market last week by lowering guidance for same-store sales growth in 2025 to 3-4%, ~30% below its 5% gain in 2024.

I believe that the US has entered the last stage of the rolling recession that has been in place since the Fed hiked interest rates by a record-breaking ~24-fold in little more than a year starting in 2022. The consumer is the last sector to succumb. As this Administration succeeds in pushing funding from the federal sector to state and local governments, economic growth should begin to rebound during the second half of this year.

As a result, interest rates are likely to surprise on the low side of expectations in the short term while the Trump Administration puts in place policies that eventually will increase consumer and business confidence: they are likely to unleash the animal spirits and productivity that have been building thanks to breakthroughs in robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, and multiomics sequencing.

Turbocharged by AI, real growth should accelerate significantly from the 3% in place since 1900 during the next five years. We believe that, after recent downside volatility, equity markets soon will look beyond short-term uncertainty and reward strategies exposed to truly transformative innovation.

Full episode: https://t.co/YE8UswE61f

[ً @trading_axe]

I was the lead market maker at Jump.

I'm no longer under NDA so I can say this,

Typically when you see down moves during the weekends like this, it is pure market manipulation.

It was one of the tactics I invented during the low volume moments.

We would load up and pay attention to Crypto Twitter as a source of sentiment, with specific accounts organized in specific categories.

One thing I used to like doing was purposely "nuking" a new 4H candle on BTC and/or ETH, which was an easy trap.

"Smart" traders know we'll eventually revisit those wickless candles, so it was good bait for me to set with eager buyers stepping in and the candle continuing lower.

They end up capitulating before we reverse.

Bottom shorters get comfortable here too.

Anyway, I can't give away too much but just know,

Most of thos "bad" price action you're seeing is a group of "whales" sitting in a chatroom together and merely oil painting on charts.

My alias in Jump was "Vincent van Gogh."

And that isn't because I lost my mind [well - that too],

But because I painted some of the best looking bear traps.

I know an influenced painter copying my work when I see one.

Stay safe.

Retar Dio.

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

This isn’t Max pain.

Max pain is learning nothing from this cycle and making all the same mistakes next cycle again.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@MarkGou78769139 @MoonLamboio @BCBacker 😂���

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

@AlexLongneck @Bluntz_Capital @decodejar Watch the vid, it's on my Youtube.

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

Ready for takeoff in 3….2….1 🚀

[Nebraskangooner @Nebraskangooner]

#Bitcoin

What if...

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

This chart by Plan C belongs in the hall of infographic fame.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Every Bitcoin bull market year begins with a rough start of some sort...

For the past 2 cycles, there have been rises in the first week of the new year followed by downside.

Seem familiar? It should! Our current cycle has done nearly the exact same thing.

Other cycles also tell us that the corrections are typically short-lived and conclude within the month. We have seen strong rises into March after the fact and the same should be true this cycle.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

$CRV has now also hit my entry zone on both USD and BTC pairings but I have enough long exposure via my $XRP long that just got filled so not rushing into a new long here.

Will look to potentially jump in on some strength- key zone to hold here.