Cryptonaut Capital

Focus on the big picture. Realistic grounded data-driven analysis. Been around the block since 2015 #bitcoin #ethereum #base

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

Coinglass Bull Market Top Indicators https://t.co/8fPO2AXRXF is interesting, but all you really need to look at is https://t.co/2Zqsom6GJe

Let me explain why… and how you can manage your positions over years.

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

Great rules. Highly recommend people check https://t.co/DINqqSZj6g at all times before buying. If CBBI > 50, I highly recommend waiting until it falls under 50, ideally under 30

And for loan LTV, assume BTC hits the balanced price https://t.co/eRQ1hd8ybL - if you can survive that with your collateral not reaching liquidation threshold you are very likely safe

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

@BitMasterK Generally speaking LTV 15-30% but really depends on where the price is when you borrow.

An example: Suppose you want to borrow $100k USD. At current BTC prices this would recommend $262k in collateral today.

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

For the future, one easy way to avoid this is to take loans assuming BTC will at some point hit the balanced price https://t.co/eRQ1hd8ybL

So for example take $41k as the price it will hit, factor in liq price and ensure your loan will survive that and the likelihood of liquidation plummets

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

@danieljosep_eth What about @fusewallet?

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

@KillaXBT

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

If you are going to ever borrow against BTC, do so with 75% * Delta Price in mind as your liquidation price. https://t.co/jlJGWRLA8u

If you do, chances are ever getting liquidated drop towards zero

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

@leshka_eth Delta price is the 🔑

https://t.co/jlJGWRLA8u

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

BTC bottoms between Delta Price and Realized Price in every single case across all of history. Use that to guide your actions accordingly.

https://t.co/jlJGWRLA8u

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

@alicharts https://t.co/jlJGWRLA8u

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

@alicharts Better to check the Delta Price. Bottoms between that and Realized Price.

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

@Timccopeland I’d recommend adding @itstuyo transparent and available today

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

@CryptoPoseidonn If anyone is curious about optimal multi year buy ranges, to hold over long term

BTC optimal range is $39k to $61k
ETH optimal range is $1.2k to $2.8k

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

Consider also the realized price for ETH sits at $2524, we are only a 1.15x above realized price.

Contrast to BTC which is still 1.6x realized price.

Across 100% of history buying between delta price and within upper margin of realized price range are the best times ever to buy BTC and ETH

ETH is in that range right now. BTC enters that under $60k

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

Consider also the realized price for ETH sits at $2524, we are only a 1.15x above realized price.

Contrast to BTC which is still 1.6x realized price.

Across 100% of history buying between delta price and within upper margin of realized price range are the best times ever to buy BTC and ETH

ETH is in that range right now. BTC enters that under $60k

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

This represents the entire history of BTC’s price action from near inception. What do you notice?

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

For spending and earning yield on stables I’d suggest starting here

Apple Pay cards plus yield on holdings: @itstuyo @ether_fi

Mobile based yield aggregators: @getaxal @nook_platform

To watch for the future: @aave iOS app and @gnosisapp

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

Forget moving averages and focus on these values. You won’t regret it.

For example right now:

- True Market Mean is $82k. Don’t buy Bitcoin above this price.
- Realized price is $56k. Buy a LOT of BTC when below the realized price.
- Delta price is $40k. When borrowing mid or long term, assume BTC will hit this low and plan accordingly.

Check the graph and look back across all of history. It works.

[Cryptonaut Capital @cryptonaughte]

Simple rules for Bitcoin that have will save you a lot of pain. This strategy will have worked across 100% of BTC history

https://t.co/f5X8CwhAy1

- Don’t buy BTC at all above the True Market Mean
- Buy significantly only UNDER the realized price
- When you take a loan, assume BTC will drop as low as the delta price and plan accordingly. Adjust for 75-80% liquidation price LTV

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

Good afternoon.

Seeing a lot of portfolio wipeouts and total despair today. Please hear me. I understand you want to speed up the process with leverage. But the best path to wealth from investing is a long and disciplined road, not a short, risky sprint. Choose high conviction assets with attractive risk-reward profiles, and avoid leverage like the devil. Stay safe out there.

And have a good evening.