In over fifty years of investing, I have NEVER seen a better shorting opportunity than the semiconductor sector where it is priced for absolute perfection to infinity...
BREAKING - as of this morning, 12% of Florida's for sale homes are in active fire sale territory.
This means they have been sitting on market, the seller is actively cutting prices and increasing the frequency of those price cuts.
The pressure is mainly concentrated in Tampa and Fort Myers, where fire sales now top 30% of listings in some submarkets.
This means sellers cannot find buyers even though they want to.
Gold: end of consolidation ?
#gold
Banks in China are opening the tap to let the chinese invest again in gold.
Next week, we should see gold break this flag to the upside.
This is NOT a "Sell" signal IMO. However, it IS an "Open your mind to the possibility of selling" signal. Also, an excellent place to invoke...
Jay's Trading Maxim #18: Follow the trend, but DO NOT fall in love with the trend. @sentimentrader
Traders aren't listening as much to Fed speak as forward guidance and instead are pricing in rate hikes with more certainty than what's coming from US central bankers. Last week, US 2-year yields climbed to 50bp above the Fed funds rate, the biggest gap since late 2022.
Tom Lee (@fundstrat) says the U of Michigan sentiment survey has become "notoriously partisan" — and it's distorting how the market reads the data:
→ Around 25% of Democratic respondents say inflation is currently running over 100% right now.
→ Republicans currently read sentiment at 87, Dems at 32 (both flat year-over-year).
→ 51% of Democratic respondents are now below the survey's all-time "worst ever" reading of 47.6.
→ Median 1-year inflation expectations: Dems 4.8%, Republicans 1.0%.
"University of Michigan went to no longer doing a phone survey. So it's online only...the response rate now is roughly 66% Democratic versus 33% Republican. That's not a fair breakdown of The US overall."
"The Democratic responses for current conditions is essentially unchanged since November, and the Republican responses are unchanged since the summer. The only reason that overall number kept dropping is that it's reflecting a greater percentage of Democratic respondents."
I estimate that the American people have a memory capacity of about 2-3 months at this point. That’s the headline retention model.
Therefore, Trump has to get oil down to $70-75/barrel by the first week of August so that by the time Americans hit the midterm voting booths, high gas prices have become a distant memory.
Imagine buying $MU for $2.00 in 2009.
The % distance above the 50 month MA (top indicator) is at an extreme along with most semi names. $SOX has a little further o go to reach the stretched levels of March 2000.
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