Daniel Moskowitz

Assistant Professor @HarrisPolicy, @UChicago. I tweet mostly about American politics (and occasionally soccer).

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@garlicksauce @apsrjournal @tara_slough Ha! Thanks, Alex.

[Charles Stewart III @cstewartiii]

Gig alert at @MITelectionlab. We have an opening for a Research Support Associate position in the lab, which is ideal for someone just graduating who wants to see what research at a place like MIT is like. Pass it around.

https://t.co/q7RZodj6aR

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@Nolan_Mc I guess the question is whether there are any voters out there who are in favor of banning the use of the absolute value of NOMINATE (I assume that’s basically the entirety of your platform).

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@sidlowe Not the greatest but one of my favorites (I remember gasping while watching it live): Inter’s Stankovic vs. Schalke’s Neuer.

https://t.co/tz02iwlDoZ

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@jbarro FWIW (not that much until there is validated turnout for respondents), the CES also shows a similar sized swing for Black and Hispanic voters. https://t.co/oyXQqoHice

[Brian Schaffner @b_schaffner]

we have updated this app to allow you to calibrate the likely voter weights to the final popular vote margin...should provide a more accurate description of vote patterns (until we have the vote validated data nex year)

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@MattGrossmann Agreed

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@b_schaffner Will be interesting to see if this pattern is present once we have validated vote (i.e., no gender gap for white voters and a massive gap for Black voters).

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@StevenTDennis That seems unlikely to be what’s driving the movement in this poll relative to her September poll. The Omaha DMA primarily overlaps with CD-4 (though it includes three low population counties in CD-3). CD-4 has the smallest shift toward Ds of the 4 districts.

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@matt_blackwell @Nate_Cohn Must be 15%: “Interviewers spoke with 7,879 likely voters across the seven battleground states… For these polls, interviewers placed about 850,000 calls to more than 320,000 voters.”

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@btshapir My reply wasn’t serious…

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@SamaraKlar Alternatively, yet another instance of an academic in the ivory tower insisting that the behavior of the masses is inconsistent with their true “enlightened” interests.

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@SamaraKlar I like that your tweet began with “unpopular opinion” and ended with “nobody wants this!”

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

I was Derek's discussant at APSA for his JMP on "amateurs." His work is thoughtful, provocative, and creative.

[Derek Holliday @d_e_holliday]

With #APSA2024 done, excited to announce I'm on the job market this cycle! I work at the intersection of U.S. political behavior and institutions, with specific interests in representation, partisanship, and democratic functioning across national, state, and local gov 🧵1/n

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@otis_reid I’m curious about this too. Any insight, @raphelso?

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@otis_reid @politicory Yes, I wondered too what the binned plots look like.

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@dandekadt A sweaty van? Did the PGMOL park a van at Stockley Park? Are they trespassing?

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

@cwarshaw @MattGrossmann 20 months later... https://t.co/iomHJBqwNY

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

While only indirectly informative to the presidential election context, in a new paper with @cantstopkevin and @BenSchneer, we estimate statewide Senate/governor top-of-ticket effects on down-ballot House candidate vote shares.

PDF of paper: https://t.co/hw4D0IpSqK

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

2) Anticipatory balancing could play a more prominent role in an election in which both presidential candidates are very unpopular but one candidate is presumed to be a clear frontrunner.

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

As Democrats deliberate over whether Biden should step aside, a consideration likely on the mind of House & Senate Democrats up for reelection is whether a weak presidential candidate at the top of the ticket hurts down-ballot candidates.

[Benjy Sarlin @BenjySarlin]

As @daveweigel has brought up, there’s a decent case the expectation that Trump was going to lose big in 2016 boosted R candidates for voters looking for a check.

[Daniel Moskowitz @danmoskowitz]

1) In the paper, we find little evidence consistent with differential partisan turnout based on the quality/ideo. of the Senate/governor candidates. However, it's easy to imagine that presidential campaigns are more effective at mobilizing partisans (e.g., Enos and Fowler 2018).