The original post hints sports volume is becoming a smaller piece of the pie, which is misleading due to the rise of RGQ volume which is also dominated by sports.
I agree there will be a place for other broader categories but believe sports will continue to be the dominant retail product for some time.
EXCLUSIVE: Jeff Probst slams prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for allowing users to make trades about who won “Survivor” 50, saying that the companies are “incentivizing people to lie, cheat and steal to get ahead.”
“They have figured out a way to capitalize on [the show],” he tells Variety. “It doesn’t sit well with me as a human. I get it — they built a great business. They don’t care. I’m not happy about it.”
“Clearly, if 90% of the people are voting for somebody, there’s a leak. But to look at us, the producers, as though we have a problem, is the mirror pointing in the wrong direction,” he says. “[Prediction market platforms] are the ones with the problem, not us. We went and made our show in a vacuum, and we keep it very tightly contained, but if you are foolish and naive enough to not think that somebody might leak it, that’s your problem.”
https://t.co/eNfFoauDe9
Everyone arguing “more people win on prediction markets” is missing the point.
The real question is how fast they lose? As most if not all will lose over time.
And right now: wide spreads, and high fees mean we’re still far from optimized.
Prediction market vs. state-regulated sportsbook. What happens if you bet $10 on the favorite in first-round games, and win them all?
Don't invest in the prediction market hype. When you place you bets against Wall Street, you're not going to come out ahead.
"States would be crazy to raise sports betting taxes now with everything going on with prediction markets," DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said during today's earnings call