Last day at 1 Market with some of the best people in the business
Almost 10 years to the date at CNBC in SF.
More on the next chapter coming very soon :)
.@lqiao is great. Here she is on the question every AI company has to answer: what is the ROI?
if what a customer pays doesnt cover the compute they consume, growth can just deepen your losses. So you can find product market fit.... and still “scale into bankruptcy”
Back from vacation and LIVE at 12pm PT / 3pm ET
Is AI’s easy-money era ending? We’ll unpack a wild week for the AI trade—big tech earnings, Leopold Aschenbrenner’s massive deal, OpenAI’s price cuts, rogue agents, open models and new restrictions on Chinese robot imports.
Cisco’s @jpatel41, Fireworks AI's @lqiao and Standard Bots' @evanbeard.
https://t.co/j7BohZewJ2
AI is no longer a segment. It’s a whole show. So I’m leaving CNBC at the end of the month to build it with @jaswu_
More soon. Reach us at [email protected][email protected]
No. they backfired. China got the best Nvidia chips anyway.... and export controls just gave them more urgency to build its own hardware.
something to keep in mind as Washington figures out its approach to open source AI
Defense vs offense in AI
Dario: crack down on industrial scale distillation bc it could bring China within months of the US frontier
Sam: I'd rather ppl not distill from us but its not in my top 10 list of worries
real world example of the trade off between closed and open models: closed models had stronger guardrails but the open model gave more control.
When do guardrails become a liability?
the market has evolved and Kimi K3 is bullish for the infrastructure layer
"There’ll be an interesting, almost thermonuclear battle to provide the compute to support the demand that’s emerging for open weight models" -Benchmark's @peterfenton
Deepseek 1.5 yrs ago made everyone question how much compute AI would actually need. K3 points the other way -- cheaper, open models mean wider distribution, more usage, more inference
IBM risks getting squeezed from both sides by AI.
1) IT budgets moving to AI infrastructure
2) AI could now cut software & consulting spend
Anthropic research showed where this was headed over a year ago. 37% of Claude use was computer/math work (coding, debugging and databases closely tied to IBM), nearly 4x any other category.
Mizuho note this AM is a lot of hand wringing over media narrative and open source. Misses the nuance.
Open source isn’t bad for AI spending.... may actually be one of the biggest accelerants bc enterprise can deploy AI more broadly when not locked into the most expensive frontier models.
bullish for adoption... more complicated for frontier model economics
LIVE at 12p PT/3p ET: Chinese open source is going mainstream. Fable is out and everyone is talking GLM 5.2. Is this DeepSeek all over again.... or something bigger?
@levie and @gabepereyra on adoption and what it means for American AI. Plus Bernstein's @Srasgon on OpenAI's new Jalapeno chip
watch here: https://t.co/ygjtBR2nbG
fascinating chart
AI not longer just about intelligence benchmarks, but intelligence x cost to run
Green quadrant is the sweet spot: smart enough to matter, cheap enough to scale
LIVE at 12p PT / 3p ET: SPACEX ON DECK
Octahedron's @_ram_ on how to trade the debut
K2 Space CEO @KaranKunjur on the "strategic tech" category
Plus Guide Labs @juliusadml on the Anthropic Fable 5 backlash
Watch here: https://t.co/4Pq7HohsYP
LIVE at 12p PT/3p ET: There's a new way companies are buying AI and its called model routing. We're all over it in today's livestream.
@ScottWu46 of @cognition on his new $10m AI guarantee & agent routing
Cisco's @jpatel41 on the enterprise shift
Watch here: https://t.co/e314dscllm
Feels like a good time to resurface this one
Mine and @jaswu_'s basic point: cheaper AI complicates the narrative for OpenAI and Anthropic when they eventually try to go public.
Could also ripple across the AI trade at large given how much of it is levered to their growth
"This is the first time ever that I can remember that technology costs the same as people, and you're making that comparison: choose tech or people”-@jainarvind
I can confirm my X account was hacked on May 19 and I did not send the previous tweets (that have now been taken down).
I have worked with X to restore my account and this is my first post since the hack.
in time for #GoogleIO