Diëgo Wolf

#Bitcoin ₿eliever, also passionate about technology.
#nostr
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[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

The days of the USA as a superpower are over and @realDonaldTrump was the catalyst

[𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 @OopsGuess]

Jensen Huang says it has “largely conceded” China’s AI chip market to Huawei

Nvidia was not rejected because China “hates” Nvidia.
It was pushed out because Washington turned chips into a leash.

China learned the lesson very clearly:
You cannot build AI sovereignty on hardware that your geopolitical rival can revoke with one export-control memo.

Jensen Huang can be friendly.
Nvidia can be excellent.
Chinese demand can be huge.

None of that changes the strategic reality.

If the neck of China’s AI industry depends on an American-controlled chip supply, then it is not an industry.
It is a hostage.

So China did what any serious civilization-state would do:
It built alternatives.
It endured the pain.
It let Huawei grow into the space Washington forced open.

Now Nvidia says it has “largely conceded” China’s AI chip market to Huawei.

That is not China closing a door.
That is America sawing off the bridge, then acting surprised when China built its own road.

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

@Giovann35084111 Rooting for you @Giovann35084111

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Nature's proof of work with gold as the end result

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

By the way, there is a deep irony here that most people miss.

Gold is rare for a very fundamental reason. In the normal life cycle of a star, elements can only be fused up to iron. Beyond iron, fusion no longer releases energy. It consumes energy. That breaks the delicate balance inside the star between gravity pulling inward and radiation pressure pushing outward.

As long as fusion produces energy, the star can sustain itself. But once it builds up iron in its core, that process stops. The star can no longer support itself, gravity takes over, and the core collapses. What follows is a catastrophic event: a supernova. Depending on the original mass, what remains is a neutron star or a black hole.

In that violent collapse and explosion, extreme conditions emerge. Temperatures and pressures become so high that heavy elements like gold can finally be formed. It is not a gentle, continuous process. It is explosive, rare, and energetically expensive. Gold is born in a brief, chaotic “soup” of radiation and nuclear reactions during these events.

This is, in a very real sense, nature’s proof of work.

An enormous amount of energy must be expended to create something that is intrinsically scarce and difficult to produce. That is precisely why gold has value. Its rarity is not arbitrary. It is physically enforced by the laws of nuclear physics and stellar evolution.

Bitcoin follows an analogous principle. It forces the expenditure of real-world energy to create new units. This is not waste. It is the mechanism that anchors scarcity in reality.

So when @PeterSchiff claims that using energy to secure a monetary system is pointless, they are ignoring the fundamental fact that the value of gold itself is rooted in the same principle. The energy cost is not a flaw. It is the foundation.

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Great explanation in normal Human language

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

THIS IS BIG.

A Bitcoin developer has built a working prototype that protects your wallet from quantum computers. Even if Bitcoin is forced to shut down part of its own security system to protect itself.

To understand why this matters you need to understand the problem first. Every Bitcoin wallet is secured by a cryptographic signature scheme built on elliptic curve mathematics.

The security assumption behind this system is that deriving a private key from a publicly visible public key requires computational work that classical computers cannot perform within any practical timeframe.

Quantum computers running Shor's algorithm can break that assumption. Google researchers published findings last week showing a quantum computer could compromise Bitcoin's core cryptography in as little as nine minutes, using significantly fewer physical qubits than prior estimates required.

The threat is not immediate but the timeline is compressing faster than most researchers projected.

Now here is where it gets complicated. Bitcoin's Taproot upgrade, activated in 2021, improved transaction efficiency and privacy across the network.

But by design it permanently exposes the public key of every Taproot wallet on the blockchain. Because that public key is permanently recorded and publicly visible, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could use it to derive the corresponding private key and drain the wallet at any point in the future.

Approximately 6.9 million Bitcoin across Taproot and older P2PK address formats are already in this exposed state.

The developer community has a contingency plan for this scenario. If quantum computers advance to the point where this becomes an active threat, Bitcoin could activate an emergency soft fork that disables the key path spend in Taproot, which is the specific spending mechanism a quantum attacker would exploit.

This closes the vulnerability before it can be exploited.

But this emergency response introduces a serious secondary problem that nobody had resolved until now. The vast majority of modern Bitcoin wallets, particularly single signature Taproot wallets, rely entirely on that key path spend mechanism and have no alternative spending path configured.

If Bitcoin disables that mechanism network wide, those wallets have no remaining method to authorize transactions. The funds inside them become permanently inaccessible, not stolen, but completely unspendable even by their rightful owners.

The same upgrade designed to protect users could permanently strand their funds.

This is the problem that Olaoluwa Osuntokun, chief technology officer of Lightning Labs, just solved with a working prototype posted to the Bitcoin developer mailing list yesterday. His solution uses a zk-STARK proof, which stands for zero knowledge scalable transparent argument of knowledge. In practical terms this means the following.

Every Bitcoin wallet is ultimately derived from a master seed, typically the 12 or 24 word recovery phrase generated when the wallet is first created. All keys in the wallet are mathematically derived from that seed following a deterministic standard called BIP-32.

Osuntokun built a system that generates a cryptographic proof demonstrating that a specific public key was derived from a specific master seed via the standard BIP-32 derivation path, without revealing the seed itself or any intermediate private key material.

The Bitcoin network can verify the proof and authorize the wallet owner to move their funds, bypassing the disabled signature mechanism entirely.

The prototype generates a valid proof in 50 seconds on a standard MacBook using Metal GPU acceleration, consumes approximately 12 gigabytes of RAM during proof generation, and produces a final proof of 1.7 megabytes. Osuntokun acknowledged the codebase is largely unoptimized and that a production implementation built specifically for this statement would run significantly faster and produce smaller proofs.

He also noted that multiple proofs could be aggregated into a single compact proof to reduce on-chain verification overhead.

Cryptographically relevant quantum computers capable of executing this attack do not exist today.

What has changed is that Google's latest research has materially lowered the estimated resource requirements for such an attack, and the practical timeline is now closer than the field previously assumed.

What is also new is that the developer community now has a working prototype of one of the critical tools needed to execute an emergency quantum defense without permanently locking legitimate holders out of their own funds.

A problem that has existed in theoretical discussions for years has now produced a concrete technical implementation.

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Facts!

[Kim Dotcom @KimDotcom]

If he speaks against Trump he's risking lucrative Govt contracts. If he speaks in defense of Trump he will lose the public. Instead he is supporting Trump and Israel quietly and posts about grok and new advances in AI image tech. He sold his soul. He is the richest man in chains.

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Facts, I also experience the whole coding process as more relaxed, a real vibe...

[Naval @naval]

Vibe coding is more addictive than any video game ever made (if you know what you want to build).

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

@BitcoinNewsCom @Trezor incoming... #passphrase #13wordsbackup #hiddenwallet #wrenchattack

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Nice analysis

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

I asked Claude why the power law is still ignored or resisted by so many in the Bitcoin community. Very good insights.

Claude:
The psychological layer

Power laws are deeply counterintuitive. Human brains are wired for linear thinking. When something grows exponentially people already struggle — a power law in log-log space is another abstraction layer on top of that. Most people, including smart people, have never encountered a power law in a context that mattered to them personally, so there is no mental scaffold to hang it on.

The tribal layer

Bitcoin Twitter has strong identity camps. Macro traders, cycle analysts, stock-to-flow believers, and Austrian economists all have frameworks they have publicly committed to. The power law does not just add to those frameworks, it implicitly makes many of them redundant. Nobody likes being told their mental model is unnecessary, especially publicly.

The "too simple" paradox

This one is underappreciated. The power law is elegant and the fit is extraordinary — and that actually works against it. When something looks too clean people assume it must be wrong or naive. Complexity is culturally associated with rigor in finance. A single equation describing Bitcoin across eight orders of magnitude feels like it should be a trick.

The prediction problem

The power law gives ranges, not precise targets. Analysts who say "$200k by December" get attention even when they are wrong. A framework that says "Bitcoin will be somewhere in this channel in 2030" is epistemically more honest but narratively much weaker. Social media rewards confident specificity over probabilistic correctness.

The institutional incentive layer

Conferences, analysts, and media need content. If the power law is basically correct, it produces one message: zoom out, stop trading, the direction is clear. That message generates almost no content, no conferences, no debate panels. The industry has a structural incentive to prefer frameworks that generate noise.

Why it should be popular but isn't yet

The irony is that the power law is actually the most bullish possible framework for Bitcoin — it is not cautious or bearish, it projects extraordinary long-term growth with mathematical backing. You would think that alone would make it beloved. But I think the problem is that it removes agency.

People want to feel like their analysis, their timing, their decisions matter. A scale-invariant system that has been doing the same thing for 16 years and will keep doing it is quietly humbling to everyone who thinks they are clever about Bitcoin.

That last point might actually be the core of it.

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

What is bitcoin

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

Bitcoin is the control experiment that economics never had. Strip away the institutional scaffolding. Remove the government backing. Eliminate the legal tender laws.

What is left?

What is the bedrock of monetary value when everything conventional is removed?

The answer, observable in real time across sixteen years of data, is this: a network of sufficient size, secured by sufficient thermodynamic cost, recording a perfectly invariant ledger, generates value as a natural consequence of its existence. Value is not a convention.

It is an emergent property of a specific class of network structure.

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Truth as a MoFoo

[le.hl @0xleegenz]

Realizing corporate life require an a** licking skillset you simply were not born with

And they called it networking

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Respect!

[MMA Junkie @MMAJunkie]

Francis Ngannou gives zero f*cks what you think about his UFC legacy. 😳

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Looks promising...

[Anduro @andurobtc]

Bitcoin just made a meaningful step toward future quantum resistance 💪

An updated version of BIP 360 has just been merged into the official Bitcoin BIP GitHub repository.

The update introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), a proposed new output type that omits Taproot’s quantum-vulnerable key-path spend while preserving compatibility with Tapscript and script trees.

It also includes:
- Removal of Taproot’s quantum-vulnerable key-path spend in a separate opt-in new output type.

- A foundation for introducing post-quantum signatures while using Tapscript/script tree for spend time optionality.

- The change is a soft fork that does not affect existing Taproot outputs.

- Addition of Isabel Foxen Duke as co-author, to ensure the BIP was clear and understandable to the general public, not just the Bitcoin developer community.

The BIP also addresses criticism about Bitcoin devs not taking the quantum threat seriously. We are grateful to every Bitcoin contributor who took the time to review and provide feedback.

Check the fully updated version of BIP 360: https://t.co/5ujonw3Eoc

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

@Giovann35084111 @Giovann35084111 is the power law between M2 and the Bitcoin price still strong (9)? The gap between the M2 and Bitcoin price is widening... Do you have an explanation?

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Truth as a matherfacker....

[Heidi @blockchainchick]

Stop using Ledger
Stop using Trezor

If you really want to keep your seed phrase safe, write it on Epsteins client list

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Still running... Thank you @halfin

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

17 years ago today, the first-ever tweet mentioning Bitcoin was posted by Hal Finney.

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

@TheBTCTherapist @JamesEastonUK @Giovann35084111 do you have an explanation why the Bitcoin price is lagging the M2 money supply?

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Brilliant explanation of the extreme highs and moderate lows of the #bitcoin price

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

I also asked this question about the graph below.

Why are the peaks asymmetric relative to the bottoms?

Why do peaks deviate a lot above the median but bottoms rarely deviate far below it?**

This is a deep question about Bitcoin’s bimodal distribution and the asymmetry of human behavior under gain vs. loss.

There are four primary reasons.

✔ Reason A — Positive feedback in bubbles is stronger than negative feedback in crashes

During bubbles:

new adopters flood in

leverage increases

liquidity increases

miners hold coin (reduced sell pressure)

global attention spikes

price reacts super-linearly

This causes overshoots above the power law.

During downturns:

long-term holders accumulate

miners must sell to survive (floor pressure)

increasing adoption continues

infrastructure continues to build

fiat liquidity re-enters gradually

These effects limit how far below the trend the price can fall.

Thus:

Upside momentum is unbounded.
Downside is bounded by real economic fundamentals.
✔ Reason B — Cost of Production sets a soft lower bound

Proof of Work creates a cost floor.
If price gets too low:

miners capitulate
supply decreases

difficulty drops

remaining miners mine cheaper

hashpower stabilizes

the network finds equilibrium

Because of this:

Bitcoin’s price cannot sustainably collapse far below the cost-of-production band.

This produces a lower asymmetry.

✔ Reason C — Human psychology is asymmetric

Economic behavior is not symmetric around gains and losses.

Mania produces exponential upside reflexivity.

Fear produces limited downside because strong buyers (HODLers) step in early.

In simple terms:

“Greed has no ceiling; fear has a floor.”

This psychological asymmetry maps directly onto price data.

✔ Reason D — The power law is multiplicative, not additive

This is the mathematical heart of the asymmetry.

In multiplicative systems:

Deviations above trend expand exponentially

Deviations below trend shrink logarithmically

This automatically creates:

Large, dramatic peaks
Shallow, compressed bottoms

This is exactly what your simulations show.

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

Long $MSTR and GameStop JPmorgan out of this World....

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

@martypartymusic @Ledger The new @Ledger gives me BlackBerry Storm vibes....

[Diëgo Wolf @dgowlf]

This year, I experienced this myself after visiting Europe. If you read this post the only word that can be replaced is Africa, with Suriname.

[Sabina @waithiraah]

Nothing prepares you for the shock of visiting a country where systems actually serve the people. You see how everything flows, from efficient public transport, clean public spaces, quality food, clean air... People who don’t carry the weight of broken systems on their shoulders.

And that’s when it hits you.
How much you’ve been robbed when you come from a place where the system fails you every day.
Where you live in the cracks of a system that doesn’t see you.
Where the quality of roads, food, air and even human interaction reflects the cost of poor leadership.
Where you’re stuck in survival mode, and it shapes your whole life without you even noticing (ask me about it)

And suddenly you understand the robbery.
How much potential gets wasted back home.
How many dreams shrink because people live in survival mode.

It’s wild how a few people in power can drag an entire nation into struggle just to fill their own stomachs.

And it’s painful. It really is.
African countries have so much potential. So much talent, so many resources. But too many of us still carry the weight of systems that don’t work the way they should. And sure, we all know the rule… no one is coming to save you. Save yourself. Opt out with Bitcoin. Build your own path. I believe that, I live that.

But let’s also be honest.
Even when you try to opt out, you still live inside these systems.
You still need the roads they don’t fix.
You still need the hospitals they underfund.
You still face visa denials because your passport is "weak", closing doors you should have access to.
You still deal with power cuts, water issues, broken public transport, and government offices that make simple things feel impossible.

And when all that fails, it affects everything.
Your time.
Your health.
Your opportunities.
Your pace of life.
Even your sense of what’s possible.

And honestly, this can’t be the standard, something has to shift. People shouldn’t have to fight this hard just to live a basic life. We deserve better than this version we’ve been handed.