epickram

[epickram @epickram]

@Andre_AGTC Can you show the math of why it’s 2.5-3 and not closer to 1 ?

[epickram @epickram]

@A_May_MD @drug_smolecules thanks Adam - how confident are we that the math being done for malignancy rate per patient-year for both drugs is apples-to-apples (i.e., throwing in obe ph2 OLE patient-years do we also do that for the other drug)?

[epickram @epickram]

@WassimLaroussi3 can you explain the math on this please

[epickram @epickram]

@plainyogurt21 Dermatology

[epickram @epickram]

@plainyogurt21 Which doctors are you talking about specifically?

[epickram @epickram]

@NightOwlBiotech Why does $IONS 2030E revs fall of randomly ?

[epickram @epickram]

@masonat7 Doesn’t the headline average already kinda convey this? It’s not like the responder analysis is telling us anything new

[epickram @epickram]

@bluejaunt100 @Biohazard3737 Yea but with the company really shifting strategy towards less risky CNS what they probably saw was encouraging enough for a registrational trial, keeping in mind this is IT technology that sucks commercially. So my point is the bar wasn’t low for advancement

[epickram @epickram]

@BioXray10 @bluejaunt100 @Biohazard3737 They did report higher rates of SAEs at higher doses so it’s possible that’s why efficacy was confounded

[epickram @epickram]

@bluejaunt100 @Biohazard3737 They also did report trends on cognition across doses… enough to carry forward into a ph3

[epickram @epickram]

@plainyogurt21 The CFHBE assay work has been highly predictive of translation for $VRTX sand they have the former CMO from there I believe so don’t doubt they can actually have a CF drug. My question is more around will people care for a second vanza that just hits a diff subunit

[epickram @epickram]

@plainyogurt21 I think the question you need to ask is whether this asset is still cheap if they have “me-too” vanza (as all the preclinical data suggests they are) and is there any optionally on differentiating on MOA or safety etc especially after patients already switching off trikafta

[epickram @epickram]

@plainyogurt21 Parody lol—the trikafta add-on study validates the drug is active in patients and the combo MAD in HV is to show they are getting the PK right but they are developing only the combo.

[epickram @epickram]

@plainyogurt21 But “NBD1”

[epickram @epickram]

@TTRAmyloid We comp things so we can see what something should be worth on a relative basis

[epickram @epickram]

@mahanoycitykid I flagged yesterday post close that I flipped from short to long $CYTK based on the pre announcement alone

[epickram @epickram]

@biopharmacaster If effect sizes were bigger we would have seen that

[epickram @epickram]

@Anthony_TayIor The probability of both endpoints missing goes down with a pre announcement which adds probability to at least one or both hitting…

[epickram @epickram]

@Anthony_TayIor and from a risk reward standpoint at the current AH price (I flipped from short to long) that’s really attractive because we have more information that failure is off the table. Convexity is heavily upside skewed now

[epickram @epickram]

@Anthony_TayIor lol believe me brother I have done the fundamentals here but doesn’t make any sense for them to run TWO separate calls in one day if the trial OUTRIGHT failed. This pre announcement essentially derisks at least one endpoint hitting