esgdsm

merchant risk at ye' old utility

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

The real question is how to channel this instinct into species-level productivity, instead of endless brain rot.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Gambling is appealing because humans evolved a capacity for risk-taking. A society in which no one ever took risks would not have thrived, and ultimately would have been outcompeted.

Risk-taking is still enormously valuable in modern society. Innovation exists because someone accepted the possibility of failure in pursuit of a larger reward. Entrepreneurship, scientific discovery, exploration, and investment all depend on a willingness to tolerate uncertainty. Risk taking can benefit both society and the individual.

Males were disproportionately engaged in roles in which variance was useful: resource acquisition, war, trade, exploration and leadership. Meanwhile, lower variance and greater reliability are evolutionarily valuable for raising children, where consistency of food, protection, and care matter.

Thus humans, particularly men, are drawn to activities that have variable and potentially outsized payouts, like gambling. Archaeologists have found dice and other games of chance originating from 5000+ years ago.

Companies have become highly sophisticated in using these principles to make money, even when the benefit to society is tenuous at best. Casinos, sports betting, financial trading, collectibles, fantasy sports, video games, and many retail promotions all utilize some lottery-like payoff structures because they work.

The greater the potential upside, the more compelling the product. The faster the outcome is revealed, the more appealing. The more appealing to men, the more profitable. The result is an evolutionary pressure on the products: ever-larger jackpots, faster feedback, and larger jackpots, even as the vast majority of participants lose.

Many people enjoy these products and the thrill of the uncertainty. A life without variability would be dull. We're wired to seek it out. The challenge is how to allow the entertainment value of variability while minimizing the harms. It's a fine line between providing entertainment and exploiting a deeply rooted human instinct.

[Kris @KrisAbdelmessih]

https://t.co/og7lGs8hkD

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Beyond the context, the main conceptual flaw is that the adjusted chart uses the wrong denominator. Storage adequacy isn’t about covering average annual consumption, it’s about covering peak-week withdrawal during a cold snap.

But that’s not all.

2/4

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@charliepoz

"If you'd thought about this nearly as long as I have..."

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Matthew Smith has spent the last 18 months modeling every well, pipeline, storage facility, and power plant in the American natural gas system.

His conclusion is that the US is heading toward a natural gas shortage with no precedent, beginning in 2028.

By 2030, he believes we could exhaust our working natural gas storage entirely.

The fuel everyone in AI is counting on, and that everyone assumes is abundant, is not there.

And because gas sets the price of electricity in most of the country, he argues Americans will pay for the shortage in their power bills.

Matthew has worked in energy markets for over 20 years and is the CIO of Chronometer Partners.

This is his second time on the show, and he's one of my favorite people to talk to about energy.

We discuss:
- Why the bottleneck is moving from power to fuel
- Why we can't just shut off exports
- 2028 as the inflection point
- Large-scale nuclear v. SMRs
- Who wins, who loses, and what can still be done

Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:30 What Drives the Deficit
11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up
20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis
25:05 Winners and Losers
29:00 Nuclear and Solar
33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill
37:20 AI’s Next Shortage
45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes
51:15 The Coming Gas Knife Fight

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@charliepoz You'd love Seattle

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@patrick_oshag Cycle peaks always include commentary on constrained physical resources. Then people do the work and discover that humans have lots of levers to pull.

No different here. Canada's natural gas capacity and the US's coal capacity are severely understated and almost ignored in this

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@TKavulla Which is worse? YETI tumblers or lobbyists?

https://t.co/ISub3OxKdX

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

Mandelbrot argued that scaling works in the broad, macroscopic middle of the spectrum.

The adoption of new technologies is no exception.

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

Congress has repeatedly failed to pass federal carbon-pricing legislation, and the resulting patchwork of state carbon markets plus federal appropriations is a slower, more fragmented way to fund grid modernization than a single national price on carbon would be.

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@ArchegosIntern markets repriced from cuts to hikes this week. Look at what was green on friday. Going to be a telling week!

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@vrexec I've felt this during every period of "city-life". Growing up in the mountains gave me an accessible, temporary escape without abandoning my responsibilities. My happiness is directly correlated with access to nature. Tapping into the wild is difficult in Amsterdam.

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

Why has neither house of Congress censured the President?

@RepThomasMassie @SenJohnCurtis @SenWarren

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@partners_road 3) You send cold emails? BBERG? Are most receptive?

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Transmission x Football
I can't believe it happened.

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@PauloMacro west coast energy players

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

Exited.

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

I continue to be long high operational leverage freight companies with tight stops. 3% NAV. Will revisit post holidays.

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

People seem to forget that Trump is a New Yorker. He doesn’t need NYC, but he WANTS it. There is a fat tail in collaborating with Mamdani IMO.

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

@EnergyCredit1 You're hitting all the right notes for the sentiment miners...

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

Headed to tour Puerto del Callao, anything I should look out for?

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

aaaaaaand there it is

[esgdsm @esgdsm]

AI anyone???