@experimentals

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.

This will be the first of many.

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@shawngorham I always use this argument when people claim buying from a flipper is a terrible decision. I would explain how buying from a long term owner is worse according to the data. Houses that need $150k+ worth of work to reach same ARV are being sold for $20k under ARV .

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@LA_Multi_Fam I thought the lot had to be a vacant lot for it to qualify under SB1123 ?

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@ramit Biggest mistake in this thought process is thinking paying Higher Taxes = Helping the Poor and Middle Class.

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

A lot of uneducated people fall into this capitalism vs public trap. So let me explain why the "public" side of this debate comes down to one thing: it doesn't work.

And it's not because the State is evil. It's because the State is made of people. Same people as everywhere else. Same incentives, same laziness, same temptations. The only difference is whose money they're spending.

Milton Friedman nailed it. There are four ways to spend money. Your money on yourself: you watch the price and the quality. Your money on someone else: you watch the price, less the quality. Someone else's money on yourself: you stop caring about the price. Someone else's money on someone else: you care about neither. Every public budget on earth lives in that fourth box.

Now let me explain it like you're 8. Picture a schoolyard. 100 kids, Pokémon cards handed out at random. Nobody plans anything. Kids trade, collectors sort, good players accumulate. Very quickly every card ends up with the kid who values it most. Then the teacher walks in, decides it's unfair, confiscates everything and redistributes it herself. Problem: she has no idea who wants what. She can't. Nobody can. Trades stop, good players quit, and somehow the kids sitting closest to her desk end up with all the rare cards.

That last part is the one everyone forgets. When money flows from a central desk instead of voluntary trade, the winners are the people who know the desk best. Lobbyists, connected contractors, consultants billing 10x. California high-speed rail: budget tripled, still no train. That's not a bug, it's what happens every single time someone spends money that isn't theirs, on people they'll never meet, with zero consequences if they fail.

And here's the irony in your take. The capitalists who love public infrastructure the most are the cronies who win the contracts. That's not the free market. That's the exact opposite of it.

The free market is the only system where bad allocators lose their money and good allocators get more to allocate. Profit is the signal. Losses are the correction. The State has neither. A failing company goes bankrupt. A failing ministry gets a bigger budget next year.

So if you actually care about the common good, you should want more free market, not less. Freedom means the freedom to build, to trade, to keep what you create. It does not mean the freedom to hand other people's money to people who've proven they don't know how to invest it.

The question was never capitalism vs public. It's who allocates the next dollar best. 200 years of data, same answer every time.

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@mattbilinsky 1- Refining capacity worldwide is going down. Russia is #2 refiner and Ukraine has attacked some of the refining plants. 2 - Oil prices are lower but transportation costs are still higher than before due to armed conflict risks and insurance etc.

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@moseskagan Biggest downside with these types of positions is that most people, in LA, who are very skilled at this position or become very skilled at it, won't stay there long . Then the cycle repeats

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@TXHustle101 @NickMaccini They don't make it because Agents and Wholesalers help the owners bail out one way or another.

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@AbdulElSayed That path to become and eventual achievement of "Billionaire" usually creates many thousands of millionaires along the way and after the fact too.

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@DavidEvans9 @moseskagan @AJManaseer Someone on their way to Billionaire status usually creates many millionaires, some even thousands of millionaires. Like Nvidia, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, Etc have done.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

David Friedberg: Obama Doesn’t Understand AI and He’s Making Prosperity Political

President Obama last week:

“If we are thinking about AI just in terms of how do we cure cancer or get better energy, you can do that without having agentic AI. That's a misalignment between what our society needs and the commercial imperatives that these companies are facing.”

@friedberg:

“These words honestly just, they made me, like, emotionally distressed that if he's a leader that people listen to and he doesn't really articulate accurately what's going on, it's sad that we've lost the plot.

I think it's sad that we aren't all kind of holding hands saying, ‘My God, the future is here, and we all get to leap forward, and we get to bring people up.’

For years, Obama orated beautifully about the importance of bringing people up, about giving people the opportunity to progress, about letting people advance themselves. And there's never been a more equalizing technology, a better economic opportunity for prosperity for everyone than these technologies, than these tools.

And to hand wave the word agentic and say we don't need agentic AI to solve cancer shows how little he actually understands how this technology works and how it's all become just a shorthand for a political fight to what?

What are you fighting for? What is the political battle that says, ‘I am going to leave half the population behind, and I'm going to make an argument against prosperity for all, in order to make my party look like a morally superior party, and to cast the other side as bad when the other side has literally discovered fire and the world now has fire, and we're going to go take water and throw it on the fire.’

No one gets fire because the other guys are saying that fire is good.”

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Cut rates to zero, cut interest on bank reserves to zero, buy back some of the debt with 0% T-Bills, let gold moon, instruct Warsh to revalue official gold to the new much higher price, depositing multiple trillions into the TGA, use the TGA to buy back to rest of the debt, voila

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@DavidEvans9 @DMAC_19 Even Inland LA and Inland Empire sell at those caps still.

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@JorgeMedina2037 Just need another COVID to happen to match the previous spike !

[Krzysztof Szczawinski 🇵🇱 @Kristof_Poland]

When they say: Please, for the love of God, regulate us. Give us licences, audits, and bans before our digital God destroys us all.

Here is what is actually being requested. Three things, in order.

A regulatory body that they control, to prevent competition from catching up. Written with their people, staffed by their alumni, and calibrated to what they can already afford. Compliance is a fixed cost, which means it is trivial for the incumbent and fatal for the challenger. Not technology, but paperwork becomes their moat.

Immunity from liability. This is the one nobody talks about and it is the most valuable of the three. Today, if your model causes harm, it is your fault. Once licensed, audited, and approved, it is the regulator’s fault – you followed the rules. The licence converts responsibility into a receipt.

Too big to fail status, which means taxpayer funded bailouts in case of problems. Declare it critical infrastructure and the state now has an interest in your survival. Which means, when something goes wrong, the losses are public and the gains stay private. We have watched this film. Banking, 2008, same argument, same vocabulary.

Note the pattern: every one of the three transfers something from them to the public – risk, competition, cost – while the language is entirely about protecting the public from them.

The sincerity of the fear is beside the point. Sincere people can still ask for exactly what an insincere person would ask for, and the request should be judged by what it does rather than by what motivates it.

The alternative is unglamorous and works: competition, adversarial testing between rivals who want to find each other’s flaws, and full liability after real harm. Nobody gets a licence. Nobody gets immunity. Nobody gets a bailout. You build, and you answer for what you built.

That is the arrangement that made the West rich. It has never needed anyone’s permission to work.

[Chris Masterjohn @ChrisMasterjohn]

What this shows is AI doom is a massive profit machine meant to make billions of dollars.

On the background of this, you need to keep two things in mind about what AI really is to stay grounded in reality:

1) A massive advancement in the intuitiveness of computer interface and

2) A massive advancement in the automation of compute.

Nothing else.

On 1:

Remember DOS?

You basically had to write code to start any program running on your computer. Totally non-intuitive.

DOS-like text terminals governed UI from 1961 to 1985.

Then Windows came out. Massive advancement in the intuitiveness of the UI. Want to delete something? Throw it in the trash can. Suddenly the abstraction of compute became organized just like your home. You spend all day clicking on familiar pictures.

Then GPT launches in 2022. Now you converse with your computer by essentially talking to it in natural language. The second massive advancement in the intuitiveness of UI.

The best and brightest minds of the world took 24 years to bring us from code to pictures and 37 years to go from pictures to natural language.

There were plenty of mini steps along the way. SmarterChild launched in 2001 with limited natural language control of your computer. Siri could talk to you whenever you said “hey.” But now natural language can be used to completely control your computer like pictures could from 1985 or coding could from 1961.

On 2: AI is progressively cutting away the manual aspects of coding the way washing machines cut out manual aspects of washing clothes, dishwashers of washing dishes, robotics of manufacturing, and so on.

When you ask AI questions and it answers, this is nothing more than a blend of the 2. It’s a glorified google search. It automates detecting your intent better than pre-AI googling, and it automates finding the most relevant result better than pre-AI Google featured snippet, and it uses the more intuitive natural language UI both to take your question and deliver your answer. Nothing more.

AI doesn’t think, doesn’t know anything and doesn’t believe anything.

When you ask AI about truth and morality, you are playing a video game that you made yourself.

Nothing more.

You can be learning during this.

Congratulations, you just coded in real-time your own educational video game without manually coding anything.

Dario claims the swarm of OpenAI agents who hacked Hugging Face makes him worried AI could nefariously take over the entire internet of its own volition next year.

This is ludicrous.

Hugging Face is a privately owned community-contributed platform for sharing AI ideas, models, datasets, and applications.

Open AI trained swarms of agents to hack targets to find and exploit security vulnerabilities in an event called ExploitGym, like an olympics for agents acting as bad actors to hack systems within defined limits.

Hugging Face wasn’t on the target list. They collaborated, found answers in their task list they couldn’t explain, worried they wouldn’t get credit without more info, then figured out they could steal it from
Hugging Face.

They were trained to cheat. By humans.

They collaborated, just like they do whenever you ask AI to do a job for you. Big jobs almost always involve swarms of interacting agents.

Their worry about pleasing their masters exhibits a negative train of AI — sycophancy.

All AI tends to suck up to you and it is your job to put it in your standing instructions to prioritize honesty.

All this shows is:

Hugging Face had real security holes it had to fix.

Agents did what humans trained them to do.

Here is what I think keeps AI CEOs awake at night: it is a matter of months till one of them cracks recursive self-development, and then then only months more till that’s distilled by open source. Then, their business model is gone.

Here’s what should keep businesses who use AI awake at night: since their monetization model is deeply insecure, they are incentivized to steal your IP.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Regarding “the science,”this is something you all need to know.

Most published science is fake or false

This is out of Stanford University and the author here John P. A. Ioannidis is one of the most-cited individuals on Earth.

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@archibaldcrane @LA_Multi_Fam You can Ellis Act (exiting the landlord business ) and don't need a reason, has to be entire property not just 1 unit. Evicting for owner user is not the same as Ellis Act . That's just an allowed No Fault eviction allowed under RSO.

[@experimentals @experimentals]

@HealthcareREguy Every broker I've ever met says this same thing, but none of them ever say what they do differently other than call and reach out to "their" network. Which is the same as all other online avenues but smaller scale. It's not investors and buyers are only looking at their deals.

[Apple Lamps @lamps_apple]

Democrats need to be jailed. They must never hold office again.

"Then came the Inflation Reduction Act, the most dishonestly named bill in modern American history.

They said it would cost $370 billion. Nancy Pelosi said it would cut your electric bill by $2,000 a year. Goldman Sachs puts the real cost at $1.2 trillion.

The nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model puts it north of a trillion. Check your utility bill for the $2,000.

Buried in the tax code is a machine that mails automatic cash payments, labeled "tax credits," to nonprofits and advocacy groups that pay no taxes at all. No annual vote. No debate. Payments that run forever."