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Javonte Williams is an RB1, but I'm concerned 👀
Per @FantasyPtsData:
📈 17.7 FP/G (RB9)
📈 18.2 Expected FP/G (RB4)
📈 2.7 Carries Inside the 10/G (RB5)
📉 4.09 YPC (RB25)
📉 0.79 YPRR (RB41)
The volume and TDs are carrying his fantasy production, not efficiency.
Potential sell-high with tough ROS schedule?
Since Ashton Jeanty entered the league, he's been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 47.4% of his rush attempts
That's 180 carries that never had a chance in hell to gain positive yardage
Sure, the majority of his metrics have been disappointing, but he's seen >2.0 YBCO/Att in just 2 of 25 games
His performance in those two games?
5.86 YPC (RB2)
22.6% Explosive Run Rate (RB1)
57.1% Success Rate (RB5)
3.20 YACO/Att (RB2)
0.31 MTF/Att (RB4)
25.2 FPG (RB2)
Small sample size, sure, but 21 RBs currently AVERAGE more than 2.0 YBCO/Att this season
Jeanty sits in dead last, at 1.0
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
MarShawn Lloyd among 45 RBs with 50+ carries:
Yards per carry: 2.61 (45th)
RYOE per carry: -1.73 (45th)
Yards after contact per carry: 1.37 (45th)
EPA per carry: -0.347 (45th)
Stuff rate: 59.6% (45th)
@FantasyPtsData
Targets per route run vs. separation score for WRs and TEs through Week 9, per @FantasyPtsData
Which pass-catchers are not only getting open, but also earning targets when they do?
I have Playoff Strength of Schedule for Weeks 15-17 for each position (per @FantasyPtsData)
This heavily based on Raw FPG Allowed + Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed
But also takes into account some Offensive and Defensive Metrics (with a little weight added to recent trends)
Woke up feeling disingenuous today did we?
Go ahead and let everyone know which season Tua, or “any starting QB in the last 5 years,” dealt with all this at once?
Take all the time you need, bud.
I'm not sure if people viewed Jakobi Meyers as a positive comp for Josh Downs, but here's his on/off splits for the Jaguars in 2025:
+0.191 EPA/Play
+0.304 EPA/Dropback
via the dankest tool @FantasyPtsData
Explosive rush rate (10+ yard runs) vs. missed tackles forced per attempt through Week 9, per @FantasyPtsData
Which RBs are both making defenders miss and breaking off chunk runs consistently?
Bryce Young's fantasy output vs. the pressure rate over expectation he's faced (time-to-throw-adjusted), by week
In games where Young has been pressured much more often than his time-to-throw would ordinarily invite, he's performed poorly.
And vice versa!
Via @FantasyPtsData
Red zone expected vs. actual fantasy points per game (via @RyanJ_Heath and @FantasyPtsData)
- Gibbs, CMC, Javonte Williams (!), and Ken Walker all dominating red zone usage
- Chase Brown with worse red zone usage than Kendre Miller :(
QB Adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and completion % over expected (CPOE) through Week 9, per @FantasyPtsData:
Which QBs have been both efficient and accurate this year?
85.8% of Patrick Mahomes' passing yards on TD throws have come after the catch...
Can Josh Downs be a much-needed "downfield threat" in Kansas City?
@FantasyPtsData