Fantasy Points Data

If you want to be a smarter fan, a better bettor, or the king of your fantasy league, you need access to the best data: @fantasyptsdata

[Fantasy Points Data @FantasyPtsData]

.@FantasyPtsData is your one-stop resource for NFL stats and analytics

We hand-chart every play of every game, giving you a near-infinite number of data points when you factor in all of the tools and filter/split options

Other sites charge $200/m. We’re $200 for the full year

[Fantasy Points Data @FantasyPtsData]

@The_Ball_Knower RIP me

[Fantasy Points Data @FantasyPtsData]

ANY/A Leaders on Out-of-Pocket Throws

1. Lamar Jackson (11.9)
2. Sam Darnold (11.2)
3. TYLER SHOUGH (10.1)
3. Joe Burrow (10.1)
5. Patrick Mahomes (9.3)
6. Josh Allen (8.8)

[Scott Barrett @ScottBarrettDFB]

@Clevta @SamMonsonNFL Turnover-Worthy Throw Rate [2025]
+@FantasyPtsData

w/ pressure: 4.1% (worse than the Vikings QBs)
no pressure: 2.7% (equal to Matt Stafford)

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

Alvin Kamara is completely toast as a rusher, but he can still perform as a receiver out of the backfield

- Kamara dealt with an MCL sprain and lingering ankle issues last season

This could seriously cut into Travis Etienne's upside, who was already going way too high in Best Ball contests

- Etienne ADP: 28.4 (RB15)
- Kamara ADP: 190.6 (RB57)

39.9% of Etienne's fantasy points came from his receiving production alone in 2025 (per @FantasyPtsData)

- 6 of Etienne's 13 total touchdowns came on receptions, including 3 in Week 15 when the Jaguars beat up on the lowly Jets

Etienne wasn't even that impressive as a rusher last season (despite having the 13th-best run-blocking OL)

- 4.35 YPC (RB27)
- 3.5% Explosive Run Rate (RB35)
- 47.4% Success Rate (RB37)
- 0.13 MTF/Att (RB32)
- 2.07 YACO/Att (RB34)

I think Kamara's injuries, along with the Saints anemic offense under Spencer Rattler played huge roles in his disappointing season

Here is how Kamara performed just two years ago (2024)

- 6.2 Targets/G (RB1)
- 38.8 Receiving YPG (RB1)
- 1.93 YPRR (RB1)

Hell, even most of Kamar's 2024 rushing metrics were better than Etienne's in 2025

- 4.17 YPC
- 4.4% Explosive Run Rate
- 51.3% Success Rate
- 0.13 MTF/Att
- 2.25 YACO/Att

I still expect Etienne to be the lead back, but I just don't think he will possess the upside that seems to be priced into his ADP

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

Best playcallers by ANY/A since 2021

1. Todd Monken - 7.64
2. Kyle Shanahan - 7.43
3. Ben Johnson - 7.30
4. Matt LaFleur - 7.09
5. Brian Schottenheimer - 6.83
6. Liam Coen - 6.73
7. Byron Leftwich - 6.72
8. Sean McVay - 6.65

@FantasyPtsData

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

Why does earned separation matter and does separating on different routes have different expectations?

TLDR:

1) Some routes are tougher to earn separation than others (varies by coverage too)

2) Earning separation has a 3.5x TPRR boost (varies by route)

3) Earning separation has a 5.5x YPRR boost (varies by route)

4) Not shown, but earned separation is 11x more likely to generate an explosive play (how you win NFL games and fantasy)

These are the top separators by route in 2025 (min 50 routes) 👇

@FantasyPtsData

[Joe Dolan @FG_Dolan]

Marvin Harrison Jr. the X?

Last year, MHJ averaged 3.23 yards per route run when pressed at the line of scrimmage.

Among WRs with 40 or more such routes, only Amon-Ra St. Brown (4.83) and Puka Nacua (4.53) averaged more.

LaFleur might have it right!

(@FantasyPtsData)

[SleeperJaguars @SleeperJaguars]

Catch rate for the #Jaguars in 2025 (min 25 targets)

🥇 Brenton Strange - 78.0%
🥈 Travis Etienne - 76.6%
🥉 Jakobi Meyers* - 70.2%
🏅 Parker Washington - 64.4%
🏅 Travis Hunter - 63.6%
🏅 Brian Thomas Jr - 54.5%
🏅 Dyami Brown - 54.1%

*Time with JAX only

Data: @FantasyPtsData

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

Ladd McConkey working out of a shorter route tree on quick throws in open space could be a PPR cheat code

- This is especially true if McConkey absorbs the targets Keenan Allen earned last season

For whatever reason, former OC Greg Roman had McConkey running the deepest route tree on the team in Weeks 11-18 last season (13.6 aDOT)

- 0.14 TPRR (WR75)
- 0.91 YPRR (WR78)
- 0.25 FP/RR (WR70)
- 7.1 FPG (WR78)

Behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, this role was not conducive to fantasy success

- During that same span, Allen led the team in targets (41), whole running the shortest route tree (7.8 aDOT)

When the OL was less than awful, and McConkey was playing in a shorter aDOT role (9.7 yards), he had more success (Weeks 5-10)

- 0.25 TPRR (WR17)
- 2.22 YPRR (WR15)
- 0.51 FP/RR (WR10)
- 17.5 FPG (WR6)

Metrics per @FantasyPtsData

[Scott Barrett @ScottBarrettDFB]

Most Deep Passing Touchdowns [Last 4 Years[
@FantasyPtsData

1. Jalen Hurts (37)
2. Derek Carr (29)
2. Geno Smith (29)
4. Dak Prescott (28)
4. Baker Mayfield (28)
4. Trevor Lawrence (28)
7. Aaron Rodgers (27)
8. Lamar Jackson (26)
8. Tua Tagovailoa (26)
10. Justin Herbert (25)
10. Joe Burrow (25)
12. Matthew Stafford (24)
12. Jared Goff (24)
14. Josh Allen (23)
15. Russell Wilson (22)
16. Sam Darnold (19)
16. Brock Purdy (19)
18. Jordan Love (18)
19. CJ Stroud (16)
19. Bo Nix (16)
19. Caleb Williams (16)
22. Kirk Cousins (15)
22. Justin Fields (15)
24. Bryce Young (14)
25. Joe Flacco (13)
25. Drake Maye (13)
27. Jameis Winston (11)
27. Will Levis (11)
29. Kyler Murray (9)
29. Jayden Daniels (9)
31. Aidan O'Connell (8)
31. PATRICK MAHOMES (8)

There are 30 QBs with more deep passing touchdowns than Patrick Mahomes. There are only 3 QBs with more deep passing attempts🥴

[Fantasy Points Data @FantasyPtsData]

Largest differentials between turnover-worthy throws and actual interceptions

[i.e., who got the luckiest in 2025, min. 300 dropbacks]

Dak Prescott: +11
Caleb Williams: +10
Baker Mayfield: +8
Jaxson Dart: +8

Unluckiest:

Brock Purdy: -1
Lamar Jackson: -1
Justin Herbert: -1

[Fantasy Points Data @FantasyPtsData]

Who is Philadelphia's new man-beater going to be?

AJ Brown [Last 2 Years]
vs. man coverage: 3.75 YPRR [2nd of 115]
vs. zone coverage: 2.24 YPRR [24th of 108]

DeVonta Smith [Last 2 Years]
vs. man coverage: 1.71 YPRR [53rd of 115]
vs. zone coverage: 2.37 YPRR [14th of 108]

[Fantasy Points Data @FantasyPtsData]

@SeanTPendergast @JacobBarzilla I can help! Some recommended reading on the stat if you’re interested: https://t.co/OtYGzAKpt9

https://t.co/VsecXI9nfj

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Texans WR/TE separation scores vs Man Coverage last season via @FantasyPtsData:

- Nico Collins (0.120, 35/129)
- Jayden Higgins (0.088, 49/129)
- Xavier Hutchinson (0.063, 63/129)
- Jaylin Noel (0.000, 94/129)
- Dalton Schultz (0.112, 5/72)

Noel’s performance will be a big X-Factor this year for the weapons around Stroud.

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

Not only is Drake Maye a significant upgrade over Jalen Hurts in all aspects of passing ability, but especially when targeting his WRs lined up out wide

- This should provide a direct boost to AJ Brown's fantasy ceiling

Here is how Maye's metrics compared to Hurts in 2025 (per @FantasyPtsData)

Maye Throwing to a Receiver Lined up Out Wide

- 82.8% Catchable Throw Rate (QB1)
- 95.8% Red Zone Catchable Throw Rate Zone (QB1)

Hurts Throwing to a Receiver Lined up Out Wide

- 77.2% Catchable Throw Rate (QB10)
- 66.7% Red Zone Catchable Throw Rate (QB22)

On top of that increase accuracy, the Patriots ranked 5th in PROE (5.4%) and 6th in PROE in the Red Zone last season (4.5%)

- The Eagles ranked 15th (0.4%) and 26th (-8.6%) respectively

AJ Brown has scored only 7 receiving TDs in each of the last 3 seasons, and all signs point toward a huge boost in that production on the Patriots

[On The Fence Podcast @theotfpodcast]

Terry McLaurin’s role may be evolving in 2026 👀

Blough hinted at moving Terry around more, while rookie Antonio Williams continues to impress with how quickly he’s adapting.

Despite lining up outside on over 80% of his snaps the last two seasons, Terry has consistently been more productive from the slot:

2024:
Outside — 83.4% | .21 TPRR
Slot — 16.6% | .31 TPRR

2025:
Outside — 85.7% | .22 TPRR
Slot — 14.3% | .31 TPRR

More Terry in the slot + Antonio’s versatility could create matchup nightmares for defenses. 🔥

#RaiseHail

Per @FantasyPtsData

[Brian Drake @DrakeFantasy]

Last season, 9 RBs ran at least 300 routes.

The only one with a current ADP outside of the top 40 is Kenneth Gainwell.

Current ADP: RB 37 / 114 overall / 10th round pick on Underdog

He's taking over the Rachaad White role in Tampa Bay that saw 280 targets last year.

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

Which QBs suffered the greatest loss of yardage due to receiver drops in 2025? Per @FantasyPtsData:

1. Trevor Lawrence - 397 Yards (8.6% Drop Rate)
2. Caleb Williams - 361 Yards (6.5% Drop Rate)
3. Bo Nix - 294 Yards (6.2% Drop Rate)
4. Dak Prescott - 287 Yards (5.3% Drop Rate)
5. Matthew Stafford - 287 Yards (6.0% Drop Rate)

Fun Facts:

- Trevor Lawrence's 397 yards lost to drops in 2025 is the highest season-long total in Fantasy Points Data Suite history

- Trevor Lawrence's Receiver Drop Rate has been 5.0% or higher in each of the last 5 seasons (ranked top-12 in the league each time)

- No QB has seen a greater loss of yardage over the last 5 years than Trevor Lawrence (188.8 Yards per Season)

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

Dallas Goedert is an underrated player and has shown upside when AJ Brown is off the field (w/ Devonta Smith on)

On 113 routes (small sample), Goedert has a 17% boost to TPRR w/o AJ Brown on the field

Makai Lemon will have an impact - not at AJB's elite level

@FantasyPtsData

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

Since 2021, Kyler Murray's Cardinals rank 4th-highest in shotgun rate (71.8%)

The Vikings ranked bottom-3 every year from 2021-24. Even in 2025 with Wentz/McCarthy, they ranked 8th-lowest (48.2%).

However, Murray has been more efficient from under center! Via @FantasyPtsData