MinaWon

Stock and FX trader. Student of the Macro Economy & Geo Politic. Artist by nature. Love animals with a passion for capturing their loving nature by brush.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Not a great day for the US Treasury to auction $39 billion of 10-year bonds, and yet here we are. It has become the big risk event of the day.

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

“.. Nvidia's mammoth financing plan has opened a debate on Wall Street about how much its advanced chips and the infrastructure around them are worth. The answer for banks and investors seems to be: Not as much as Nvidia thinks.”

@Reuters $NVDA
https://t.co/E9az2hDuRM

[Ana Cabrera @AnaCabrera]

Pretty eye opening: Americans feel worse about the economy today than they did during the COVID pandemic or the 2008 recession, according to the Univ. of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

[AGTrader @agtrader]

Trump going to gaslight us into a crash..... one day the mkt is going to get sick of the lies

[Jeffrey Gundlach @TruthGundlach]

The chart of the 30 Year UST yield over the past 25 years is must viewing.

[AGTrader @agtrader]

mkt chasing the call spread seller all over the place is lol. 7745 now the kill zone

i guess risking 4.90 to make .10 at the open wasnt so hot.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

Coming up tomorrow morning on @thestreetpro

Everything You Wanted To Know About Valuation Models * But Were Afraid To Ask

"This is Mrs. Bencours, one of my patients. She thinks she's a sheep. That's all." - Dr. Doug Ross (Gene Wilder), Everything You Wanted to Know About Sex * But Were Afraid To Ask

*  My valuation model indicates that the Fair Market Value of the S and P Index is approximately  6600 - or about 13-14% lower than the 7650 close on Friday (precision is not intended!)

* Valuation models are notoriously poor timing tools but in the long run the market is a weighing machine and not a voting machine

* Every valuation model  yields the conclusion that stocks are overpriced

* Specifically, the relative valuation models (price to sales, enterprise value to EBITD, Shiller CAPE, Buffett Ratio, etc.  -  are all the 90%-tile) are hinting that stocks may be even more overpriced than my models

*  Equities have ignored an eighty basis point increase in the ten year Treasury note yield since the beginning of the year - this is strange in light of the fact that in January 2026 consensus expectations were for one to two federal fund cuts in the year compared to the 2-3 hikes now anticipated  for the full year

* If my AI concerns are realized over the next fifteen months, there is downside risk to consensus 2027 S&P EPS expectations ($410/share)  - so my 6600 fair market value may have to be revised lower
....

@squawkbox @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @SaraEisen @SullyCNBC @guyadami @joesquawk @carlquintanilla @TheJudgeCNBC @MelissaLeeCNBC @convertbond @peterboockvar @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @annmarie @business @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye_HGRO @Hedgeye_HELS @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

@thestreetpro

BY DOUG KASS · Sep 14, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
The Market Outlook Worsens

* I believe we have seen the high in most averages for the year..
* Risks are underappreciated.
* Downside market risk currently dwarfs upside reward — perhaps materially so…

Given that nearly every concern we have expressed over the last 18 months is now being realized (see below), our short position should probably be higher. However, given our decades of experience, risk management/discipline and respect for market prices, price action and the changed market structure, we have not yet increased our short exposure.

That said, the market’s advance is again narrowing, interest rates are moving higher, inflation remains persistent and the probabilities of an adverse return outcome from the enormous AI capital spending spree is increasing. So, depending on price action and fundamental developments, I am more receptive to expanding our net short exposure at the current time.

In today’s commentary I will briefly explain why I feel equities are overvalued, why I am comfortable being net short and why I am considering adding to our short exposure.

Equities have been resilient reflecting the market structure dynamic, continued optimism on the part of most market participants (“the buy on the dip mentality continues uninterrupted” and speculation that is running amok) that a sharp and extended market decline is unlikely (but not improbable).

Nonetheless, recent signposts indicate that the market’s advance is narrowing — contrary to the broadly held notion that the market is broadening out. The McClellan Index (NYSI) is faltering, the Mid Cap Index (MDY) is weakening, the Russell Index (IWM) is not “crowing” nor is the equal-weighted S&P Index (RSP) participating in the market’s recent advance.
While the proximate reasons for our ursine market outlook are sticky inflation and higher interest rates, I continue to see other substantial headwinds that argue against a continuation of the bull market and, suggest to us, that downside risk dwarfs upside reward.
Growing AI Uncertainties

Away from sticky inflation and higher interest rates, AI uncertainties lead my lengthening list of (multiple) concerns.
The AI boom is potentially a toxic combination of the dot-com era’s over-investment in the internet infrastructure buildout (1997-2000) and the overextension of housing credit that presaged The Great Financial Crisis of https://t.co/zHCo7jZs2j in 1999 and in 2007, there was the promise of transformational change and the abundance and exportation of leverage. The AI capital spending spree (of data centers) has transformed the Mag 7 from being capital light to be capital intensive — with all the attendant adverse impact on a growing negative free cash flow status. Nonetheless, as I have documented in past correspondence, numerous and growing factors do not ensure positive AI investment outcomes. 

We are worried that despite near-universal acceptance that AI will yield an attractive ROIC, that optimism is unwarranted. Moreover, as in 1999 and 2007, AI has exported possible financial and economic problems if the promise disappoints. (So, whatever happens in AI land will not stay in AI land!)

Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei said the following several months ago regarding the risks of committing trillions of dollars without knowing what demand will be:

“If my revenue is not 1 trillion dollars, if it’s even $800 billion, there’s no force on earth, there’s no hedge on earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I buy that much compute… If I’m just off by a year in that rate of growth, or if the growth rate is 5x a year instead of 10x a year, then you go bankrupt.”

Yesterday Amodei tweeted another warning:

"We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.

Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our…"
— Dario Amodei (@DarioAmodei)"

My Major Concerns

* AI has been the straw that has stirred the market’s and our economy’s drink — as such, it may represent the biggest risk to equities: 1. The likelihood that the unprecedented AI capital spending spree fails to return the cost of capital. 2. The questionable AI spending boom (characterized by double and triple ordering) means to us that companies are overearning and that the current nominal strength in corporate profits (which forms the foundation of the bull market argument) may be short lived). 3.  AI’s digital doomsday? Brace For Impact, The AI Trade Just Hit A Wall At Full Speed 4. Take out the AI spending boom and the U.S. economy is foundering with the American consumer succumbing to weak real disposable income and a measurable drop in the savings rate.

* Undisciplined fiscal policy from both political parties means, among other things (and as mentioned previously), interest rates will be higher for longer.

* Improvisational geopolitical policy that may have adverse economic, trade and corporate profit repercussions.

* An equity risk discount (the ERP measures the relationship of earnings to the risk-free rate of return) and other historically high valuations against almost every traditional metric (Cape Shiller, the Buffett Ratio and the Gordon Model, etc.).

* Today’s “passive” market structure and hidden and unhidden leverage risks have not been seen in prior market cycles (see below).

The natural question investors should ask is that with so many potential market and economic headwinds that could product adverse outcomes, why have equities continued their climb in 2026? This is an essay question, but we will briefly try to explain the reason why we believe stocks have advanced.

Situationally Unaware: Speculation Is Running Amok

* Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me…
Unfortunately, there is an abundance of growing leverage in all the wrong places that exists in our capital markets and in market participants’ “portfolios” of leveraged products (e.g. 0DTE options, triple/quadruple/quintuple levered ETFs etc).Years ago, before passive products and strategies (that know everything about price but nothing about value) dominated the investing landscape — reward vs. risk and “margin of safety” were the foundations of active investment management. No more.

The growing dominance of passive products and strategies that worship at the altar of price momentum is undeniable. Algos and machines don’t read balance sheets, they read headlines. Fundamentals don’t form their investing criteria — price and momentum are the watchwords of their investing faith.

On the retail side, YOLO (“You Only Live Once“) and FOMO (“Fear of Missing Out“) represent an increasing pervasive and ongoing sentiment — arguably contributing to today’s market excesses.

Which brings us to the revelation that, after losing $35 billion of Limited Partners’ capital, the hedge fund Situational Awareness (run by Leopold Aschenbrenner) is back in operation — this time purchasing hundreds of millions of call options on the same names he owned in his hedge fund portfolio that blew up.

Aschenbrenner is somehow back and doing the same thing.

The only people more stupid than hedge fund’s Situational Awareness’ Leopold Aschenbrenner are his continuing investors…

That said, the “rebirth” of the Situational Awareness hedge fund is yet another example of the amount of speculation that still exists today.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”– George Santayana

History rhymes.

It is my view that an investor without a memory is a madman.

The many signposts I see today remind us of some elements of 1999 and 2007. 

I feared those developments back then and profited from their occurrence.

I plan to profit from them in the future. @squawkbox @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @joesquawk @guyadami @carlquintanilla @TheJudgeCNBC @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @annmarie @business @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye_HGRO @Hedgeye_HELS @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79 @peterboockvar @convertbond @whitneytilson @DanielSLoeb1 @dmoses34 @LanceRoberts @guyadami

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So not only did Ellison announce a material 10b5-1 equity sale plan ATC today, but it appears that $ORCL forgot to mention in their 1Q press release and conference call an additional $700M to their ongoing restructuring charge plan. Simple oversight, I’m sure.

[Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc]

Trump will beg, borrow + steal to ensure midterm elections.

For decades, the market participants’ ignorance was Wall St and Washington’s bliss.

Since 2009, market players EXPECT policy intervention - then more manipulation, and now self-serving & grift.

Toxic for USD & UST.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

More Examples of Extreme Market Overvaluation
* Equities are not broadening out
* Several time-tested valuation models point to downside risk dwarfing upside reward

Yesterday I  quoted from portions of TheDivine Ms M's (@hmeisler) @thestreetpro column in which she delivered an important message that the market WAS NOT BROADENING OUT (contrary to the minyans in the business media who have said the opposite).

Today I will touch on several valuation models (the Gordon Model, the Greenspan Model and the Equity Risk Premium Model) that are being ignored and that highlight the markets' possible overvaluation.

Divine's pearls of wisdom (and charts available on @thestreetpro ) were important enough to repeat in its entirety:

Mr. Market Is Not Broadening Out

* The McClellan Index ($NYSI) is faltering, the Mid Cap Index ($MDY) is weakening, the Russell Index ($IWM) is not “crowing” nor is the equal weighted S and P Index (RSP) participating in the markets’ recent advance…

Contrary to the near universally bullish narrative of most of the “talking heads” in the business media, the market is not broadening out — at least not as measured by the McClellan Summation Index, the Mid Cap Index, Russell and Equal Weighted S&P Indices. 

Let’s look at the facts and charts, delivered by The Divine Ms M (Helene Meisler) on TheStreetPro this morning:

Stocks Are Sitting at a Crossroads

"When we look back at the month of August, you might recall I had been of the mind that the ‘others’ would have a difficult month. It did not pan out as I envisioned. However, indicator-wise, you can see perhaps it has. Look at the McClellan Summation Index, which I think shows us what the majority of stocks are doing. It has been trending down for more than two weeks already, and if you squint hard enough, you can see it has made a lower low than late July and is closing in on the early June low."

"If we look at the chart of the Mid Caps, we can see they are pretty much down on the month. The chart shows that rise early in the month that has been leaking without much fanfare for the last two weeks. It is coming into some decent support in the 685 area."

"The IWM hasn’t escaped the same type of leakage. It too is back where it was in early August, having given up the gains that got folks so excited early in the month. It is also back where it was in June."

"For all the hootin and hollerin about how great small caps were (are?) relative to large caps, the ratio of $IWM to SPY says that narrative is wrong. That ratio peaked two months ago and just made a minor lower low. You can see it accelerated in the last week."

"And what of everyone’s new favorite ETF, the $RSP (equal-weight S&P)? Aside from the fact that the ratio peaked back in late February, notice all that supposed broadening out peaked in late July—exactly when the SOX/tech stocks made their lows. This ratio turned south last week as well."

Note: I am often wrong and always in doubt!

@KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @RPKent @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79 @squawkbox @cnbcfastmoney @cnbchalftime @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @joesquawk @saraeisen @guyadami @SullyCNBC @TheJudgeCNBC @carlquintanilla @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @annmarie @business @convertbond @BoockvarPeter @whitneytilson @LanceRoberts @edzitron @QTRResearch

BY Doug Kass · Aug 31, 2026, 7:30 AM EDT

None

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

“Don’t Fight the Fed.” Warsh at Jackson Hole: “Price stability is not self-executing… 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the Central Bank.” Probability of rate hikes just went up going into mid-terms which historically see more than avg downside risk.

[ron insana @rinsana]

Yield Curve Control is in effect from September 9th through November 4th, as the Treasury is now buying long-dated treasuries pushing down rates this morning. Election day, by the way, is November 3rd.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

@michaelsantoli @carlquintanilla The bullish cabal's mantra and claim (espoused by current guest Julian Emanuel now up on @cnbc and others) is that the S and P profits are so strong that stocks can't fall belies many periods in time (like 2018 and many other times) when just the opposite occurred.
Moreover, if one believes that the hyperscalers and others (like $CAT and so many other beneficiaires that have collaterol benefit) in the S&P are "overearning" because of the risks associated with the remarkable AI capital spending spree (and its likely ultimate fall) given the likelihood that the foundation of that growth is going to weaken (as I do and others like @edzitron etc expect)... the relationship between "good earnings" and "good stocks" is not tautological that good earnings means good stocks.
Indeed, its "first level thinking." (h/t Howard Marks)
@tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie @business @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @guyadami @TheJudgeCNBC @carlquintanilla @KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @RPKent @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79 @hedgeye @whitneytilson @convertbond @SullyCNBC @saraeisen @DeItaone @WalterDeemer @DarioCpx @CNBCFastMoney @cnbchalftime

[Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk]

I am getting a lot of questions about why the Fed Hawks seem so intent & even panicked about inflation & raising rates NOW.

The answer is multifaceted but ultimately lands on Fed credibility and the fear of repeating mistakes of the past.

Inflation has been elevated for more than five years. Many shocks got us here, some would have been look-through events for the Fed in another world. That is harder now. We have seen repeated supply and demand shocks that have cumulated & at normalizing inflation. There is pushback but not enough to derail it thus far and the recent inflation data suggest it isn’t over. Supply & demand shocks have repeatedly collided to leave us with the longest bout of inflation since the 1970s, a particularly ugly decade.

The cure was two brutal and scarring back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981-82.

We don’t have the same level of inflation now but it is persistent. The longer the Fed waits to derail it, the more it could cost us - literally - over time.

Worse yet, supply shocks - which are abundant and keep coming - are harder to derail than demand shocks alone. That was the lesson of the 1970s, as were the perils of a cental bank that lost its inflation-fighting credibility.

The push to move now is rooted in a concern that waiting makes the economic costs of inflation & derailing it much more consequential.

We are already seeing the stress of inflation show up along with a return of term premium in bond yields. Indeed, long-term bond yields are higher today than they were prior to Fed rate CUTS in 2024.

Federal deficits are blowing up, fueling inflation & the supply of debt that must be issued. That is stoking concerns about our credit worthiness as a country.

Now overlay surge in debt globally since pandemic, esp among developed economies. That supply is coming to market at the same time massive debt to fuel data center construction is being issued. Same time appetite for funding debt is waning.

Another layer is the loss of the global reach of Gulf country sovereign wealth funds, which need to turn more inward in response to the conflict in the Middle East. All of those shifts are pushing long-term yields up, despite earlier Fed cuts.

The upward pressure on rates could be greater if the Fed waits too long to deal with inflation than we are enduring.

The warning hawks are giving is that waiting means more aggressive and destabilizing rate hikes, whether the Fed or the bond market does the job for them down the road.

This is not the 1970s, but it rhymes. That is something to internalize.

The Fed as an institution likes to learn, not repeat mistakes. That does not preclude new mistakes.

No one knows when the rubicon of previous mistakes will be crossed or we have a worse mess due to market forces taking over. I would prefer we avoid both.

I am looking at the PCE calculations & they are sticky & hot. 🥵

Too many have already been burned by inflation. That is prior to additional shocks just beginning to show up via the costs of AI.

I say this personally & perhaps because I know the voyage. Inflation is like cancer - if it is allowed to metastasize, the cure and chance of survival go down. I caught my cancers early & have thus far been lucky. What we are seeing in the inflation data are worrisome. I don’t want the cure to cause more pain than needed.

That is what I am hearing in the warnings of Fed hawks. Do a little today to stop it or risk worse outcomes later on.

I am worried the cure might already be painful but risk management is telling me it is better to take that pain & reverse if the economy cools, than allow the bond market to do the job for the Fed. That is a brute force ugly overkill situation worth avoiding if at all possible.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

Chart of the Day

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is at 2.93%, increasingly overbought. @jimcramer @tomkeene

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Goldman TMT on tech weakness

SanDisk & Western Digital: Both memory names traded lower after hours despite strong reported quarters, as the issue was not the current print but elevated buy-side expectations going into results. SanDisk beat on revenue, gross margin and EPS, but 3Q revenue guidance was only slightly below the Street while EPS was broadly in line, triggering some profit-taking after a big prior move; the more supportive takeaway is that SanDisk has locked in multi-year customer supply agreements covering over 50% of FY27 and 65% of FY28 planned bit production at floor pricing, supporting NAND pricing visibility and buybacks. Western Digital also beat on revenue, margin and EPS and guided 3Q revenue/margins above consensus, but the stock fell because the guide did not reset the bar enough given high HDD pricing and margin expectations, with some concern around softer exabyte growth as the company manages its 40TB ePMR ramp and HAMR qualification; overall, the read-through is a “beat but not enough” night for NAND/HDD, with fundamentals still supportive but expectations very high.

[ron insana @rinsana]

The market capitalization of all U.S. stocks is approaching $80 trillion, roughly 2.5X U.S. GDP ($32 trillion) and equal to half of the market cap of the entire world. Never seen before. The percentage of tech as a share of the S&P market cap is over 50%, also a record