frafroe

Music lover: Jazz, HipHop and Rap, Blues... I live in nature and enjoy outdoor activities.

[frafroe @frafroe]

My jazz hero....#Jazz

[Mook @RandallPMcMurp4]

Thelonious Monk

[Alec Stapp @AlecStapp]

Increasingly think this might be the most important chart in the world right now

[frafroe @frafroe]

@wholemars What will be the solution for HW3 users?
I purchased full potential autopilot in 2024???

[frafroe @frafroe]

@HelmPeter @FernetBuehler @Michi86E Meine Entscheidung in 2015 für Tesla war ebenfalls das Ladesystem. Und die Einfachheit überzeugt bis heute.
Kann ich nur weiterempfehlen!

[Adam Mockler @adammocklerr]

🚨 Trump’s DELETED EPST**N FILES get LEAKED OUT!

[Interesting things @awkwardgoogle]

The precision of a hawk

[LeRaffl @leRaffl]

🇪🇺 Valley of death
- how fossil cars will destroy the car market

With battery electric vehicles taking off and fossil cars taking a hit, there is an effect on the car market as a whole as a result.
By now you have seen S-curves left and right about about how battery electric vehicles will begin slow, then take off and finally level out at 100% of new registrations.
I myself have posted models on that for several countries.

Buuuuut ... the same effect exists for ICE cars, just mirrored. They start at 100% market share and then decrease until nothing is left.

In the past we've talked about that in terms of share of registrations, so a percentage of all cars registered, which makes sense. That's certainly an interesting metric.

You can however, also do something similar with the absolute numbers of car registrations.

That's what I'm gonna show you today and the result will show how this transition will have a major impact on the market as a whole.

Let's start off with a picture, I'll give a few technical notes later on:

What you're seeing here are the absolute monthly registration numbers in the EU27.
In the past I've shown you registration share, but these dots are the actual numbers (displayed after 2016).

What can we see here?
Well we can see the green dots taking off, that's the battery electric vehicles.
We can also see the black dots decreasing, albeit with quite a bit of volatility. These black dots are non-BEV registrations, so Petrol, Diesel, all kinds of Hybrids and even stuff like liquid gas or H2.

Similar to the S-curve in my registration share graphics, it's possible to model these two with an S-curve of their own.

Now comes the interesting part:
If you add up BEV and non-BEV registrations, we end up at the violet dots. So those are what we can expect as average expected overall registration numbers each month.

They dip!
This means following the current trajectory, the car market will halve itseelf in the coming years only to recover afterwards.

What we WANT is that the violet dots basically align with the blue lines. That's what i assumed car sales would've been if there was no transition.

That's bad!
"But wait" I hear you say.
"That's not an assumption you can just make. you don't know if it goes up, down or sideways."

And yes, you are correct. I can only guess the blue line.
HOWEVER .... nobody said I can't do the same graphic with a constant or falling blue line.

So let me show you what changes when we assume constant demand at 1 million cars:

The absolute numbers change. That's obvious ... it's the whole assumption.
But look at what happens to the violet line. It's still the same shape, just instead of reaching the valley#s low point in September 2027 the model says to expect the valley in February 2028. Even the absolute estimated number of the monthly registrations at that minimum is similar!

And given the volatility the data has, those 5 months aren't really that big of a difference.

Now let's have a look at what the model spits out if I assume numbers are falling instead of rising:

Again the valley shifts outwards about half a year.
And again the valley sit's at about half the number of cars the blue line started out at (give or take).

So basically we have a model, that predits that somewhere between late 2027 and late 2028 the car market will have taken its biggest hit and basically have halved itself.

Keep in mind, we're mostly interested in the date of the valley. Absolute numbers themselves are nice and all, but there's so much volatility it'll be hard to predict them.

[frafroe @frafroe]

@i_am_fabs Es gibt ja genug andere Touren, OHNE MÜNCHNER…😎😉

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Remember this chart

[frafroe @frafroe]

@KnutOgris @FranzStrohmeier @_CStocker @AndiBabler @BMeinl Medienkorruption?
Warum sollen öffentliche Stellen neben PK noch Werbung machen?

[Tansu Yegen @TansuYegen]

This trick shot is so unreal🎯😲

https://t.co/Bq6TIS31ND

[Stefan Krauter @solarpapst]

Bitte die Aufmerksamkeit auf die wirklich relevanten Dinge lenken, und sich nicht von Pseudo-Wichtigem ablenken lassen.
Prof. Maja Göpel auf der Re:publica 2025.

[frafroe @frafroe]

So viel zu den wirren Atom Phantasien mancher Politiker..

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

Did you know how much of the power generation capacity added each year world-wide was in renewables?

2022 it was 80 %
2023 it was 86 %
2024 it was 92,5 %

Not because the whole world suddenly turned „woke“, but because it’s the cheapest!

[frafroe @frafroe]

@Daniela_Kickl Und dann noch

‚Wag the Dog‘

[Fasti 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇺🇦🇬🇪 @Fasti26368280]

Nach der Trump-Show im Oral Office haben viele von uns keine Lust mehr, mit ihrem mühsam verdienten Geld Produkte von 🇺🇸 Konzernen zu kaufen.
👉Ich habe deswegen eine Übersicht der US-Marken auf dem 🇪🇺 Markt erstellt.👈
Gerne teilen & Lesezeichen.
Starten wir mit Mode:
(1/14)

[frafroe @frafroe]

@HGrunbichler Weil Politik in den Ländern nichts anderes zu tun hat!

[michael bell 🇬🇧 @michael66880048]

@MoragMitchell3 The article https://t.co/Z0biZVWoA5

[LongTime🤓FirstTime👨‍💻 @LongTimeHistory]

Florida school library bans “The Hills We Climb," the poem written & read by Amanda Gorman at Joe Biden’s inauguration.

Ron DeSantis & Donald Trump don't want you to hear this poem, so I'm posting it here. Pass it on.

Bob Graham Education Center — a K-8 school located in Miami Lakes — has banned student from reading or checking out the following books.

They said the reason included references of, "indirect hate messages," critical race theory, gender ideology & indoctrination.
1. The Hills We Climb
2. Cuban Kids
3. Countries in the News Cuba
4. Love to Langston
5. The ABCs of Black History

Ironically, the controversy led to a surge in sales for Amanda Gorman's writing. "The Hills We Climb" hit #1 on the Amazon Best Seller list.

#DemVoice1 #wtpBLUE #DemsUnited #ProudBlue

[frafroe @frafroe]

Warum? Weil diese fossile Lobby einfach mehr zahlt!!!

[Ingwar Perowanowitsch @Perowinger94]

Deutschland importiert 100% der Steinkohle, 98% des Erdöls und 95% des Erdgases, aber wehe 3% unseres Stroms kommt aus Frankreich, dann ist das für Zweifler der ultimative Beweis, dass die Energiewende scheitert und wir zurück zur Atomkraft müssen, dessen Uran bis 2023 übrigens zu 100% aus Ländern wie Kasachstan, Niger oder Russland importiert wurde. Warum werden die Befürworter dieses Arguments so selten medial mit diesem schreienden Widerspruch konfrontiert?

[frafroe @frafroe]

@EFIEBER_ANDRE Wer eines bestellt, hier mein Empfehlungslink.
Dafür gibt es einen Rabat von aktuell € 500,- (ohne Garantie, wie das weiter geht)

https://t.co/iP9Nj89y6e

[Melodies & Masterpieces @SVG__Collection]

“Tony can swing and play his ass off. He’s a motherf*cker. I don't think there's a drummer alive that can do what Tony Williams can do.”

— Miles Davis