Tomas Brychta

trader
(FX, commodities, futures)

[Tomas Brychta @fxbryt]

Sometimes trading feels like this. Thx @Trader_Dante for great post.

[Kyle Chan @kyleichan]

This is the most important chart in AI right now because it shows where AI spending is actually going by model capability.

Of Anthropic’s models, Fable (dark blue bottom) is only 11% of revenue. Very few companies want to pay for the best model.

The majority of spending is going towards Opus 4.8/5. This means most businesses want very strong models but don’t feel it’s worth paying for the best models.

Opus 4.8/5 is basically the performance of Chinese open-source models like Kimi K3 and GLM-5.3. But the Chinese models are cheaper to use. This means there’s likely very strong underlying demand for Chinese open-source models, but it takes time for US businesses to make the shift and some are worried about regulatory or other risks.

Overall, there’s a big capabilities overhang in AI that makes it harder to justify massive investment in ever more powerful models from a sheer commercial standpoint. Businesses are still just trying to find interesting ways to use AI in general, much less push the limit with absolute frontier models.

Chart source: https://t.co/AenJp1UdqB

[Library Mindset @librarymindset]

3 Lessons from The Art of Laziness

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

S&P 500 earnings are now expected to surge 32% in 2026, more than double the 15% growth expected at the start of the year.

We’ve never seen earnings growth this strong outside of post-recession rebounds.

This time, there was no recession. Just an unprecedented AI-driven boom.

[Mario Cavaggioni @CavaggioniMario]

US equity futures are up today. Interestingly, the SPX is making all-time highs, while its 12m fwd multiple is roughly 7% below where it started the year.

This means that earnings estimates are rising faster than prices and are driving performance, rather than multiple expansion

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Roundhill's brand new Photonics ETF $LYTE had a banner first day in volume, $72m, which is actually more than $DRAM did on Day One. Tracks 10 stocks only, fee 65bps.

[Roundhill Investments @roundhill]

The AI buildout has two bottlenecks: moving data and securing compute. We believe both are massive opportunities.

Today we launched an ETF targeting each. The Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF $LYTE holds the photonics leaders moving data with light. The Roundhill Neocloud ETF $NCLD owns the neoclouds supplying compute.

Learn more at https://t.co/ubLOsSROWS

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

We've been saying for weeks now that new highs were only a matter of time and breadth was the clue why. This wasn't a popular call, but why we follow the data.

As expected, price followed breadth to new highs today.

The good news? More new highs in NYSE and S&P 500 A/D lines.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

The commodities-versus-stocks battle has been raging for going on 5 years now. FWIW:
1. I believe this ratio will rise (favoring commodities) in the years ahead
2. I hope I'm wrong
@sentimentrader

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

As usual (14th year in a row), the most shorted stocks are crushing consensus longs amid constant, relentless short squeezes (chart BBG)

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

German but more or less…

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

a 24-year-old ex-openai researcher ran a fund to $45 billion with eight people, was up 439% net through june, and by the end of july had sold his entire public stock portfolio to ken griffin in a single block trade.

griffin described this exact failure mode two years ago, asked why portfolio managers wash out at citadel:

"you have a portfolio that is extraordinarily highly concentrated, you have large positions, you cannot demonstrate a clear and concise competitive advantage in why you own those positions."

"and there are some people that just, with full information, are unable to help themselves and get to a better portfolio construction."

he was also asked the opposite question in the same interview, why citadel keeps working, his third and final answer was this:

"it's experience. it's the price paid in losses and pain that converts into wisdom. my leadership team, we've been through a lot of very difficult moments of the markets together. we've learned some very bitter lessons. but it makes us much more effective as investors in periods of turmoil and crisis."

citadel started in november 1990. situational awareness started in 2024, long AI infrastructure and short software at roughly 4x leverage. both legs went against it in the same three weeks.

there was no bitter lesson priced into that book yet.

that's what got bought.

he wasn't wrong about AI. he was wrong about the construction of his book.

[Roan @RohOnChain]

The secret of Hedge Funds is revealed in a 12 page PDF.

Columbia University released the complete Black-Scholes Model framework that quants at firms like Jane Street & Two Sigma are known to use & released it for free.

Bookmark & read this before someone takes it down.

[investingLive @investingLive_]

Very similar is Nasdaq 1999-2000. Up 88% from October 18, 1999 to March 10, 2000, then −34% in the five weeks to April 14.

[Himanshu Kumar @codewithimanshu]

Claude is now controlling TradingView live from my terminal.

Switching symbols. Writing Pine Script. Batch scanning futures. Replay trading. Drawing levels.

All autonomous. Zero clicks.

Still has rough edges but the vision is crystal clear.

I told it:

Find me every BTC futures contract with RSI below 30 and volume spike above 200%.

14 seconds later:

→ 6 contracts identified
→ Charts loaded
→ Support levels drawn
→ Pine Script backtests running
→ Entry zones marked

Didn't touch the mouse once.

Then I said:

Replay last week. Show me where your system would have entered.

It switched to replay mode. Scrolled through price action. Marked every edge. Calculated P&L in real-time.

$4,780 theoretical profit from 9 trades.

83% win rate.

Now it writes custom Pine indicators on command:

Build me a momentum oscillator that tracks whale wallet activity correlated with price.

40 seconds. Script deployed. Indicator live on chart.

Most traders are still clicking through 50 charts manually.

Claude scans 200+ in under a minute.

Finds the setups. Draws the levels. Backtests the edge. All while you watch.

This is not about replacing your strategy.

It's about executing it 100x faster.

You only need Claude + laptop + 1 hour/day.

Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it:

1. Comment the word CLAUDE
2. Like and Retweet this post
3. Follow me @codewithimanshu (so i can DM you)

Save this post. Deploy this setup this weekend. Start testing. Scale on evidence.

[edgeful @edgeful]

https://t.co/Ca5efqxTap

[gus @igus_ai]

El CEO de Anthropic viendo como China lanza un nuevo modelo de IA que supera a Claude Opus 4.8 en TODO, iguala a Fable 5 costando 8 VECES MENOS, que encima es 100% Open source y no puede hacer nada al respecto

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Goldman - "As of July 13, a total of over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts across the Korean market triggered margin calls. Approximately 320,000–360,000 accounts were fully liquidated by brokers. South Korea has an adult population (aged 15–64) of 35.7 million people… i.e. 1 in 30 (3.4%) adults got margin called."

[Recogard @recogard]

8 free Polymarket Trading Bots on GitHub (from Beginner Friendly to Advanced Level).

Each of these repos comes with a detailed step by step setup and usage guide in English.

> Beginner Level - 5 min setup

1. This bot includes 120 ready to use strategies and tools for trading on prediction markets (Binance-Polymarket latency, Smart Routing, Penny Clipper, Momentum, DCA bots, Expiry Fade and more).

It was built by a Cambridge computer science student who won a hackathon with this bot.

GitHub: https://t.co/2MCzD8iZG7

2. A trading bot with a Smart Money strategy - it finds top traders in selected markets, filters them by Pnl, win rate, stable performance and then creates a list for automated copy trading.

GitHub: https://t.co/qbk9l2uxLd

3. This is a bot toolkit that includes Polymarket - Kalshi arbitrage, whale alerts, market making, spread farming, sports trading and more.

GitHub: https://t.co/p3obYeQTzO

4. A weather trading bot from Chinese dev that analyzes different sources in real time, like forecasts, airport data and aviation observations (METAR + SPECI) to get the latest temperature data and generate a detailed weather report for a specific city and day.

GitHub: https://t.co/No3sBcqMg1

5. A huge collection of 30+ free trading bots and services for prediction markets.

GitHub: https://t.co/a2WRRl8PJl

> Advanced bot setup

1. This bot analyzes the real trading behavior of any Polymarket trader.

It finds repeated patterns in his trades, shows which strategies he uses and helps you understand how to adapt them to your own trading.

GitHub: https://t.co/SzdjHtASLt

2. A bot that automatically manages all your limit orders on Polymarket to maximize liquidity rewards.

GitHub: https://t.co/nvb96dTIwx

> A full ML weather model

1. A machine learning weather model that learns from weather forecasting errors.

Instead of blindly trusting forecasts, it analyzes how different weather sources have historically overestimated or underestimated temperature values in specific cities and conditions.

Then it automatically adjusts new forecasts to produce more accurate predictions.

GitHub: https://t.co/9DnTPu5iKE

All of these bots also support Dry Run mode, so you can test them on real markets without risking any funds.

[Atlas @crptAtlas]

Two Sigma's Head of AI left Google after 12 years to join a $60B fund that hasn't had a single losing year since 2001

He earns ~$2.5M a year

He just gave a 30-minute lecture showing exactly how Two Sigma uses LLMs to predict market prices

This is the most secretive quant fund on Wall Street.

They never explain how they operate

This lecture is the exception

The signal combination framework he describes - using AI to weight independent signals and extract a single combined probability - is exactly the 11-step engine in the article below.

The math is the same.

IR = IC × √N

The fund running it at $60B scale just explained it on camera.

Watch the 30 minutes.

Then read the article below and build the same system on Polymarket.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Monetary policy should be restrictive until the 13% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having a 2% inflation target if you're not going to adhere to it. The Fed should be hiking rates to attack this scourge.