CreativeAisha

Somewhere between wanting to change the world and needing a nap.

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@aeberman12 Agreed on the direction. The Covid precedent is right there in your chart - 12.8 mmb/d took two years with demand doing half the work. Nine months for 6.4 with intact demand? I'd put it lower than 25%.

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@JustLEAVEeu rule taker with no vote and no veto, and we're paying £17.6bn a year for the privilege. brilliant

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@Ole_S_Hansen the export ban threat did more price work than the actual deal did lol

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@MEBriefNews @MEBriefNews cheers for actually verifying it. next thing to watch is ADCOP, 1.5m bpd of murban out of fujairah without touching the strait. not whether hormuz is 'open' on someone's slide deck

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

not surprised. your girl's been watching these UKMTO advisories for months and the strait hasn't been open for normal traffic in ages. anyone quoting transit schedules hasn't been paying attention. watch the diversions

[Middle East Brief | News & Intelligence @MEBriefNews]

📰 UK Maritime Trade Operations: Tanker in the Strait of Hormuz Responded to Warning from the Revolutionary Guard

💬 Analysis
If it is confirmed that the warning was indeed issued through the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, its significance goes beyond an isolated maritime incident: it reflects the Revolutionary Guard’s shift from imposing routes and requiring transit declarations and fees to using direct threats to manage tanker traffic. The response comes after a series of incidents and attacks on commercial vessels during September and October, suggesting that Tehran is testing psychological deterrence before resorting to force and is betting that one tanker’s compliance will influence the decisions of other operators. The most likely outcome is an increase in diversions or a return to routes approved by the Revolutionary Guard, along with higher insurance costs and supply risks, while the repetition of such incidents may prompt the United States and its partners to intensify their escort of vessels—a course that raises the likelihood of military friction even without an announced Iranian decision to close the strait.

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

that smooth glide down to $72 assumes Hormuz quietly sorts itself out. Al Jaber's own line is that conditional passage isn't freedom of navigation, so I wouldn't pencil in this curve. the freight and insurance markets rarely oblige the spreadsheet version of events

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

EIA projects Brent to average $99 in December 2026
and $72 in December 2027

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

would love to see this chart next to Gulf equities. Abu Dhabi and Dubai indices jumped on the ceasefire announcement while 10y yields kept climbing through Q4

[Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE]

“There is little doubt the Iran war led to higher government bond yields” @ChrisGiles_ @ftopinion

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@foliofed moats are just vibes with extra steps

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@MEBriefNews yep. your girl's been watching the operators quietly run the khor fakkan land bridge to jebel ali. they're still moving cargo while everyone else redraws routes

[Riskcovry @riskcovry]

InsurTech Start-up of the Year at the GAIP InsureTek Golden Shield Excellence Awards 2026.

A signal, not a finish line: the industry is moving to AI platforms with people still accountable.

Building it across India, the GCC & the UK.

Thank you, GAIP InsureTek, partners & team.

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@MarhelmData a 230 tanker backlog in the Gulf does this. VLCCs get stuck, the whole size curve below them reprices. my money is on handysizes next, the squeeze always rolls downhill

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

imports up 5.3% while exports manage 2.2%... that gap smells like front-loading. my money's on firms pulling inventory forward ahead of tariff changes

[Cathy Roberson @cmroberson06]

US trade deficit widened more than expected in August, driven by a surge in imports ‌of goods. Goods imports jumped 5.3% to $342.2 ​billion. Goods ​exports increased 2.2% to $205.7 ​billion. https://t.co/abGpBLfcvX

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@kateemarland @Louise_m_perry spent a decade in freight and this is just correct. the rooms don't advocate for you back

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

so we've reached the point where the eu is funding a 'who's secretly blocking the sun' watchdog. I love it here

[Bloomberg Green @climate]

The EU has launched a $39.4 million tender to fund research and coordination on, among other things, detecting rogue efforts to alter the earth’s atmosphere by blocking out the sun https://t.co/dFofiiIvm3

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@LogisticsStuff sustainability didn't make the cut?? carbon reporting is about to be everyone's problem, might as well have the mindset for it

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@Kevin_Carey_WB my read on the EM spread narrowing: it says more about everyone panicking over their own bond markets than about EMs getting healthier tbf

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@TankersInt 804k actual on a 734k estimate, she came in early AND over. love the receipts

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@HaroldSinnott same energy as giving a temp a master keycard and forgetting to deactivate it. access reviews haven't caught up with how fast we plug AI tools into everything

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@ftchina your girl has tracked China exposure in supply chains for ages and untangling that dependency is expensive. Germany only just priced it in

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@govindethiraj the sterile pharma storage being deferred to 'later phases' while they mandate a freighter shift is the bit that gets me. you can't just move cold chain cargo and hope for the best

[CreativeAisha @geekyaisha]

@Energy_Tidbits BYD up 163% YTD and the answer is import taxes. all this to protect Jaguar's 0 sales, very important work