Gopal Penny

Scientist, Climate Resilient Water Systems @EnvDefenseFund

[Dongfeng Li @geolidf]

Check out our new paper! We find the climate-driven season sediment-transport regime shift in four types of cryosphere-fed rivers. Huge thanks to our amazing team @RiverSediment @AmyEast_gmph @KHwave Albert kettner @CSDMS Jinren Ni, and Xixi Lu

[Gopal Penny @gopalpenny]

@LandonMarston Congratulations Landon!

[Selçuk Korkmaz @selcukorkmaz]

Explaining Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to a Layperson

1/ 🧐 Introduction
Ever wonder how scientists make educated guesses about complex things, like predicting the weather or understanding the spread of a disease? They often use a method called MCMC. Let's break it down!

2/ 🎲 Start with a Simple Analogy
Imagine you're in a room blindfolded, and you're trying to map out the furniture without seeing it. You take small steps in random directions. If you bump into something, you know there's an object there. Over time, you get a sense of the room's layout.

3/ 🔄 Markov Chain
This is the idea behind the 'Markov Chain' in MCMC. You take many, many steps starting from a certain position, and your next step only depends on where you currently are. The 'chain' is the path you walk.

4/ 🎰 Monte Carlo
Now, think about casinos. The Monte Carlo method, named after the famous casino town, is about using randomness (like rolling dice) to solve problems. In our context, it's like using random steps to explore and understand a complex system.

5/ 🤔 So, What's MCMC Together?
MCMC combines the Markov Chain (the walking around) and Monte Carlo (the randomness) to make educated guesses about systems that are hard to figure out directly.

6/ 📊 Sampling & Distributions
Here's the magic! After taking many steps, the places you've been most often give us a good idea about the 'shape' or 'distribution' of what we're trying to understand. It's like understanding the furniture layout in the blindfolded room analogy.

7/ 👥 Why is MCMC Useful?
It's super useful in situations where directly calculating the answer is tough or impossible. Scientists use it to estimate things like climate patterns, stock market changes, or even the structure of galaxies!

8/ 🔍 In Summary
MCMC is a clever method that combines walking around (Markov Chain) with randomness (Monte Carlo) to make educated guesses about complex systems. Think of it as mapping out a room blindfolded using small, random steps.

9/ 📚 Keep Exploring
If you're curious, there's a world of math, statistics, and stories behind MCMC. But at its heart, it's about understanding the unknown through randomness and persistence.

🔚 End of Thread.
If you enjoyed this explanation, feel free to share and comment! #DataScience #ScienceForEveryone 🌍

[Jay Rosen @jayrosen_nyu]

In 37 years as a faculty member, I have never seen anything like this video.

It's the faculty senate at Texas A&M meeting with the university's president, Katherine Banks, the day before she resigned.

The reason she resigned is clear from the clip. https://t.co/JEtaxywjSX 1/

[Megan Konar @MeganKonar]

How much control do smallholder maize farmers have over yield?

We dig into this Q in a new study: https://t.co/SOcclHvn4y

Great collab led by Michael Cecil w @NVergopolan @kathy_baylis @kcaylor @tomgeog @justinosheff & several not on Twitter.

Thread 🧵

[Dongfeng Li @geolidf]

How resilient are river systems of the Asian Himalayas? Finding adaptive measures for future sustainability @GiriKattel @amelie_pasz @PokhrelYadu @WenyanWu @geolidf @MukundPR
https://t.co/qVmzI1SvZL

[Gopal Penny @gopalpenny]

Congrats Dongfeng, well done and well deserved!

[Dongfeng Li @geolidf]

Very humbled and grateful to receive the GK Gilbert award of excellence in geomorphological research at #AAG2023 Many thanks to the award committee and board of @theAAG geomorphology specialist group! https://t.co/xSePt2yRfT

[Doug Edmonds @HoosierRiver]

What is causing the land loss crisis on the Mississippi Delta? We can recreate observed land loss in Barataria with a mass balance that shows dams are secondary to building levees and resource extraction. Just published in @naturesustainab!

Article: https://t.co/130DgbMTa2

[Megan Konar @MeganKonar]

I have updated the data section of my group’s website. We are committed to making our research data products freely available & we hope you find something to build on!

Here are the databases we make available: (1/n)

https://t.co/zpzloIOBY4

[Sally Thompson @DrSallyET]

Very proud of @LiyaGebriel whose wonderful paper characterising soils in the Ethiopian Highlands and their influence on runoff is published in the Journal of Hydrology "Women in Hydrology" Special Issue!

https://t.co/TC4xiIRviH

(Ping me if you can't get past the paywall).

[Matt Dancho (Business Science) @mdancho84]

Stop using boxplots...

Use this plot instead.

https://t.co/3BkbIPYAwQ

#rstats #DataScience

[Alessandro Amaranto @AlessandroAmar]

Are you an early career scientist interested in the application of #MachineLearning in #hydrology?
@MauriMazzoleni and I might just have developed the toolbox for you.
Find out more at:
https://t.co/tOhsSGwd2e

@RSEnergetico @VUamsterdam

[Gopal Penny @gopalpenny]

@DrSallyET That’s awesome, congrats Sally!

[Colin Murphy @scianalysis]

@AlecStapp The one truly clear signal we get among the noise is: There are a LOT of single-use plastic bags in the ocean, and other surface waterways, where they cause a lot of direct harm to wildlife.

[Gopal Penny @gopalpenny]

I recently switched to Zotero and it’s a dream compared to Mendeley. This is especially true after the addition of iOS apps and improved desktop annotation. You can save annotations (including figures) into notes, making it quick and easy to create paper summaries.

[Remy Levin @RemyLevin]

I've been using Mendeley Desktop daily for years, & have an annotated library of thousands of pdfs. Today, I switched to Zotero. Here's a 🧵of tips on how to do this, if you're also tired of Elsevier's BS and want to make the switch w/minimal effort while maintaining workflow.

[Dongfeng Li @geolidf]

Our new paper 'High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability' is out in @NatureGeoscience with great co-authors @WaterSHEDLab @immerzeel @SantoshNepalH2O @yaqoobsufi @alp_wise and others not on Twitter. https://t.co/Lf5yEAdgta

[Robin Cole @robmarkcole]

Incredible.. 🤯 my satellite-image-deep-learning repo is now sitting at #1 spot in the remote-sensing category on @github with 3.1k ⭐️ Great validation that this is now a mainstream topic in the community 📡 https://t.co/RUf3Glx9bX

[Paani Earth Foundation @Paani_Earth]

Releasing 'Rivers of Bengaluru' Map. It is a simple spatial representation of rivers of concern to Bengaluru and how we connect with them. It highlights the current state of affairs: The use and abuse of rivers. https://t.co/Tx5sBYjY4u
@Kspcbkarnataka @BBMPCOMM @JManjunathIAS

[Global HydroLAB @Global_HydroLAB]

HydroSHEDS reinvented! Check out our latest announcements of upcoming global river data at https://t.co/h2DEA739Sf and our new website at https://t.co/r7lmXPbo7d

[Sally Thompson @DrSallyET]

This is fantastic news! Prof Brutsaert’s research and - importantly - textbooks - have been invaluable to water practitioners & teachers everywhere. Congratulations Prof Brutsaert!