Gunjan P Khanted

Probability Geek || Prediction market enthusiast
Structuring and trading at Deutsche Bank ( FX, Rates - Futures and Options )

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

In Pune this weekend, DM if you want to connect and chat on prediction markets!

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

Why are prediction markets only binary?

What about “Number of days for peace deal to sign between USA-Iran” with each day having a fixed $ value.

Better information!!

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

@DarrelFrater DM!

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

Are we collecting Indian traffic data? Maybe with dashcams on taxis…@Uber @OlaElectric @rapidoapp_ @nammayatri

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

@MartinGTobias Link F&O derivatives to prediction markets

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

Skewed volume on sports in prediction markets make a compulsory need for gambling license in UK.

Since UK does not have a huge consumer demand for legal sports, there is no need for the product yet?

https://t.co/hHF1wFIvFF

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

Are perps future of metals trading?

Kalshi have launched precious metals perps and is looking to do copper next.

These 24*7 market with no expiry date and high leverage, will extend beyond retail markets ?

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

That’s what I am talking about!!

800% increase in volume by institutions. Love how they have started adopting to event markets.

https://t.co/1qbmBpN5qF

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

Can I break an event into leg wise options on an underlying to find arb?

[Polymarket Institutional @PolymarketInsto]

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[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

@RobinhoodApp and @SusquehannaSIG Rothera can be good infra for Institutions! Distribution + Liquidity.

@ConnamaraSys is also building a reference management system for event contracts. Can help organise macro trading.

[Frank Chaparro @fintechfrank]

Bernstein just raised its price target on Robinhood to $160 (from $130).

The firm’s thesis: the next battleground is a $70B+ trading fee pool spanning prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities, and onchain markets.

Robinhood’s edge? Distribution.

With 27M funded accounts, Bernstein believes Robinhood is uniquely positioned to win as retail trading moves onchain.

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

(Martinez) only one guy in Argentina knew it was the World Cup final :(

🇪🇸 Spain well deserved 🎉

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

Sure why not?

https://t.co/1Oph1yPJaQ

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

It’s the optics. Because sports events have the most volume due to World Cup, it’s compared to Sports-books.

The potential and functioning of prediction markets is hardly advertised. Leaving institutions looking at it as gambling :/

Will take some efforts to change perception

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Another slop hit piece against Prediction Markets.

Straight into the trash.

Mainstream journalists just can't understand that prediction markets are NOT SportsBooks

1) "Polymarket and Kalshi are setting odds as to capture insider informations"

I don't know what this is supposed to mean in the best of case.
But Polymarket is not setting any odds anyway, the market does. They have no control over that.

2) "Prediction markets could incur financial losses if they let insiders win"

Prediction markets do not bet against their users. This is what SportsBooks do.
Prediction markets are a neutral platforms where users bet against other users. They do not care who loses or win a bet.

3) "Prediction markets give opportunities for world leaders to insider trade"

True but they didn't wait on Prediction Markets and they are not even good for that.
Every time Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, we saw Billion dollars oil future trades hit the market a few minute before, making hundred of millions in profit.
Try to place a billion dollar order on Geopolitical prediction markets with a few hundred thousands of liquidity.

For some reason Mainstream media seems to absolutely hate prediction markets and churn out these trash hit pieces on the regular.

I would advise @polymarket to put a few dollars from their marketing budget into educating the wider public. Because this may seem very retarded to us, but so are the people reading it, and they vote.

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

I like how @jumptrading kept a contest for World Cup forecasting as it’s interview. Sign me up!!

[Justina Lee @justinaknope]

Jump Trading has doubled its prediction markets team this year to about 20 and plans to keep hiring

Head of PM Simon Johansen tells me and @iboudway at this rate Super Bowl 2027 looks due for another 10x in volumes

“It’s probably the most AI-resistant industry that exists. People are always going to want to watch sports.”

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

So is this like Up/Down on S&P 500 end of day binary options?

[Interactive Brokers @IBKR]

Trade your S&P 500 view. @Cboe Predicts™ contracts based on the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP®) are now available at Interactive Brokers. Take a defined-risk position on whether the index will finish above or below your selected set point at expiration. Learn more: https://t.co/Aw6P6GNVB5

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

ChatGPT is showing World Cup odds!!!

@OpenAI and @Kalshi has struck partnership in search results?

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

What about Perps on event markets? Why time bound events?

- Will Bitcoin replace a sovereign currency?
- Will US default on it’s debt?
- Will there be World War 3?

Won’t need funding rates, maybe leverage, but will invite creativity in use cases of event markets.

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

Took a colleague’s prediction markets virginity today

First the confusion and questions, then “wow this is crazy”, then the curious math model building started mid-conversation

watching someone fall down this rabbit hole never gets old :)

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

Will prediction markets work without money?
With maybe coupons/reward points.

[Gunjan P Khanted @gunjankhanted]

@SusquehannaSIG commits $500M to sports prediction markets, hedging getting creative?

Ric Best, Head at SIG says sports affiliated companies like sponsors, broadcasters, consumer brands may hedge World Cup risks.

Interesting to see sports markets having hedging utilities