Hansen Lu

Housing chart person. Former Capital Economics & Treasury Select Committee bod. All views my own.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

BoE seems to be suggesting house prices will remain broadly flat in the near term despite rate surge. They cite "indicators", but refer to NW + Hfx. Those *indices* use price that are already agreed. We're much more likely to see further house price falls in next 6-12 months

[Sam Bowman @s8mb]

The key feature of a new tax is that people’s tax bills shouldn’t be higher if they move house more. We want people to move houses for better jobs, bigger homes to have kids, to downsize, etc. Taxing that moving around is probably the single worst thing the tax system does atm.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@yousef_ki1 .

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@ArchieHall It would be admitting the logic of post 2009 austerity

[Alec Stapp @AlecStapp]

This is the best one-paragraph explanation for what's gone wrong with our institutions:

[Adam Posen @AdamPosen]

New video presenting my updated US forecast
Since I see US as undergoing an economic regime shift, my macroeconomic outlook is different from many. Any growth in 2025-26 will be due to fiscal excess. Inflation will be high whether recession or not.
https://t.co/MPN72LxqUp 1/4

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@FleekFuturist @Mo8ius1 @Noahpinion When a nation defaults its interest rates rise. The nation is probably running a large deficit. Govt has a few options - balance budget, print money or pay high rates to fund deficit. Neither are attractive.

[John Stepek @John_Stepek]

Writing today's "Don't panic" newsletter - just a passing observation, you'd be amazed at how hard it is type from the fetal position

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@robin_j_brooks I don’t get why this is a big deal & would love to see explanation. Say yuan devalues to offset tariffs, prices stable for US consumers, US tax take is up and Chinese producers squeezed. China capital flight risk? Effect is just US exports? Trumps goal is China pays?

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

DeepSeek and what happened yesterday: Probably the largest positive tfp shock in the history of the world.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@JacekDzieciolo @PensionCraft @johnauthers Also, if you compare historical charts in recent months you can see UK yields are highly correlated with US yields. It's much more likely US market effects have been spilling into UK than other way around.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@JacekDzieciolo @PensionCraft @johnauthers I agree, and the key metric here is to make international comparisons. UK gilt rises in the last few weeks were mirrored in the US Treasury market. I doubt the UK Budget was the main force driving US debt pricing in last few weeks.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@SandWitchDev Rear shot in particular 🤓

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@SandWitchDev Was just served your ad on instagram - game looks stunning. Did you model the truck off the Bernd Jager VW t3 syncro? Resemblance triggered my brain and now I have to know 🤓

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@brzzg @DanMedvedev6 @ThomasTalhelm It’s all in the sample quality / data though. What characteristics did you collect from the participants?

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@brzzg @DanMedvedev6 @ThomasTalhelm This is all very hard to interpret. What about selection bias: differences in the types of people from each country who would find it worth signing up for the platform you used?

[Sasho Todorov @SashoTodorov1]

One of the more successful anti-homicide efforts was when the Baltimore PD just permanently tailed known murders to just get some charge on them that would get them off the streets.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

A bit of a shot in the dark. Are any leasehold flats having issues with gas prices, communal heating billing, ISTA and their managing agent? If so please get in touch with me as our block may be dealing with something similar, and there may be a wider issue to work together on.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@Tarahwelsh Examples: £1200+ for a door repair that would have been max two hours labour and a £400 part. Call out charge £250 to attend and confirm that an external door is broken as reported. Managing agents who refuse to explain financial inconsistencies in our accounts.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@Tarahwelsh Hi Tarah - just reading your article. I'm a resident and also director of my leasehold management company for a block of flats in Hackney. We've been having the same problem with rising fees, but have sight of why some costs have been rising & also Governance issues driving this.

[Hansen Lu @hansenlus]

@Tarahwelsh If there is any interest, id be more than happy to show you our books, incl some wild and unjustifiable maintenance charges from contractors who are impossible to account. Plus bad the experiences we have had with our property management agent.