Top Tweets for #Deflation2425
@UxbEconomist07 @scorpiotiger77 @LiamHalligan @afneil @JeremyWarnerUK @pmdfoster @DPJHodges @Danjsalt @DerrickBerthel1 @EdConwaySky @Frencheconomics @faisalislam @FT @BloombergUK @jbhearn Excellent from @andrew_lilico .
I disagree on QT ,it has not brought down inflation (which is following the path of broad money growth prior to QT) but risks #Deflation2425. This applies to hikes in the B rate as well.
Lags either exist or they don't !
I have been warning >
@MrRBourne @andrew_lilico Meant to say at the time ,this was spot on.
https://t.co/lSJWU4h1ef
Apart from no mention of misguided #QT ?
And those of us who follow money-
@jbhearn
@PaulRChase
@iimr_buckingham
@DamianPudner
@julianHjessop
are not surprised by the #NGDP collapse
#Doubledip
#Deflation2425
Amused by how many commenters on this appear to believe it is a pro-Reeves / pro-Labour article. I guess that's what happens if you react to headlines without reading the actual piece! https://t.co/Acx9yylhy9
They don't know what they are doing, they will be ,once more ,surprised by inflation, this time on the downside.
#Deflation2425
Last week, the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) warned that “most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined”, while highlighting that stubborn inflation will prevent any further cuts in interest rates anytime soon.
The MPC voted six-to-three to keep its benchmark rate at 4.75pc on Thursday, with a majority expressing concern that recent increases in wages and prices had “added to the risk of inflation persistence”.
Having previously predicted 0.3pc growth during the last three months of 2024, the Bank now points to zero growth during the final quarter.
That’s shocking, but hardly surprising. GDP fell by 0.1pc during both September and October.
🧵2/7
Yes, I agree this was expected, but inflation will surprise many on the downside next year .
This is merely an hiatus in #TheGreatDisinflation as a direct result of Gov price settings However, more spent on energy, less to spend elsewhere.
#Deflation2425
On UK inflation being back above 2% - this is roughly what's been forecast by the Bank etc for some time. Unless we get a big surprise, inflation will most likely be in the region of 2.5-3% for most of 2025. That's not a disaster but nor is it a backdrop for aggressive rate cuts
There is only one take on inflation, the #Monetarist take .
And the CBs ignore it .
Wait for their reaction early next year when they realise #TheGreatDisinflation turns into #Deflation2425
Chart(s) of the day: a simple monetarist's take on UK inflation... 🤓
First, the raw data: note how the surge in money growth in 2020-21 was followed (as theory would suggest) by a surge in #inflation in 2022-23 🤔
Yes you did
No it won't .
It will below target all next year and probably turn negative at some point .
Then in 2026 it will struggle to reach 2%
What you did today will have a marginal effect on inflation by the end of 2026
#TheGreatDisinflation
#Deflation2425
Today we cut our key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.
Inflation is the lowest it’s been in years. It is likely to go up again in the coming months before returning to our 2% target in 2025.
Read more https://t.co/hxJxxmvwVV
Well still #TheGreatDisinflation and then #Deflation2425
Of course my #s and predicted it nearly 2 years ago !
We've banged on for some time that the Euro zone is heading back into the same deflationary equilibrium it was in pre-COVID. Aug '24 marks a turning point in that regard. Combined weight of HICP items with y/y inflation > 2% fell to 50%. We're entering deflation territory now...
@mike_lucullus @Davidmetroland @arthur_eckart @helgy2 @Martin24105 @ThomasSirianni2 @David11359148 @MrDoctorLawyer @StewartButton @QE4_Countdown @TheDickKnightV2 @shuma0963 @carygold @janineyve @NaomiLWood @RockySarni8180 @Ellis_Greenwood @Bemused21 @HenricCont @PerKurowski @jbhearn @BlogPickled @Chr1s_not_a_bot @ANGTraders @MichaelJEakin1 @HarrisSamaras @misterp55 @worstall @CascadiaEric @cutupcado @NumbersMean @stefan_demetz @SwearingForex @Roblev0 @TrevchenkoTh3rd @NC798322 @JonnyMnemonic22 @tomS95506859 @DilipShah_ @SvarfvarSea @ShaytanTruth @FistsFaceBrace @bankofengland @YouTube @elonmusk @hmtreasury @benhabib6 @DiMartinoBooth @Keir_Starmer #TheGreatDisinflation continues , #Deflation2425 will mean a big reaction in early 2025 from the CB's in US UK EZ . There really isn't any need as #Deflatiion will be temporary , but they will panic as they don't follow money and so are in the dark
Well we'll have to go back to @RishiSunak who's #Labourlight #TINO policies paved the way for real Labour to properly crash the economy.
But the real criminals are the @bankofengland ,who ,embarrassed by inflation, overtightened in 22/23 .
#Deflation2425 is the SR risk
At what point can we say that Labour has “crashed the economy”? https://t.co/2v1GhFuhkw
The Keynesians will cut as #TheGreatDisinflation turns to #Deflation2425 !
It will have a marginal effect on the quantity of money and will not affect inflation until 2026 !
If you ignore money you will always be behind the curve .
Nearly Elon ! Nearly .
It is not gov overspending that causes the inflation.
It is how it is financed .
Financed with printed money 2020-22 =Inflationary .
Add ~2 year lag =high inflation 2023/4
Financed with borrowing ,as since 2022 =not inflationary
So #Deflation2425 QED
Government overspending causes inflation. End of story.
That is why prices at the store keep rising.
Stop government overspending to end inflation!
#TheGreatDisinflation continues .The trend is everything .
#Deflation2425 is the near-term risk .
Fed cuts will affect the quantity of money tenuously and will affect inflation in 2026.
Next years Inflation/deflation is more or less set in stone
BREAKING: August CPI inflation falls to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%.
Core CPI inflation was unchanged at 3.2%, in-line with expectations of 3.2%.
This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since March 2021.
The first rate cut since 2020 is coming next week.
#TheGreatDisinflation
#Deflation2425 both my #s .
The first has happened and is continuing the second I'm confident of also .
STARTING w/this to assist all of those cheering on deflation. I ABHOR what inflation has done to working Americans. That doesn’t mean I conflate what a loss of pricing power does for oligopolies (helps) vs Mom & Pops (hurts).
@truflation hits a fresh all time low of 1.15% today.
It is Elon , concerning that the Fed don't look at monetary aggregates.
In fact they stopped producing M3 in 2006 (Friedman's preferred measure)
If they did they would know #TheGreatDisinflation will lead to very weak demand & #Deflation2425 is the near-term risk .
Concerning
#TheGreatDisinflation will continue #Deflation2425 remains the near-term risk .
Who are these people who expect "Sticky inflation" ?
No such thing !
MV=PT (after "Long and variable lags)
BREAKING: July CPI inflation rate falls to 2.9%, below expectations of 3.0%.
Core CPI inflation fell to 3.2%, in-line with expectations of 3.2%.
This marks the first month with CPI inflation below 3.0% since March 2021.
The first rate cut since 2020 is coming next month.
#TheGreatDisinflation will continue .
Don't be on the wrong side of "Sticky Inflation" .
To maintain inflation you need a previous constant increase in the money supply above output .It previously grew negatively . #Deflation2425 remains the near-term concern .
BREAKING: July PPI inflation falls to 2.2%, below expectations of 2.3%.
Core PPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.7%.
In another constructive sign, PPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2024.
A September rate cut is on its way.
Agree with most
I doubt @AllisterHeath
remembers our conversation over 10 years ago highlighting the problem of Monetary P exacerbating the wealth gap .
This Keynesian experiment was ended when they generated inflation.
The next mistake is #Deflation2425
https://t.co/ghRyJ7jWvD
@StewartButton @carygold @BobhynemanUSA @arthur_eckart @buckingfankers @NC7983 @jbhearn @PerKurowski @mike_lucullus @HenricCont @bourdeau_ed @Davidmetroland @QE4_Countdown @ShaytanTruth @helgy2 @sioneill @AynRand_is_Dead @wildcatbanker @RogSparksKB @mindedmusically @ParkersPlaster1 @BlogPickled @robert19pearson @camdenjon @edj635562 @barua_ashish @stefan_demetz @SwearingForex @ThomasSirianni2 @Roblev0 @Ellis_Greenwood @TrevchenkoTh3rd @NC798322 @David11359148 @Chr1s_not_a_bot @JonnyMnemonic22 @tomS95506859 @NaomiLWood @HarrisSamaras @DilipShah_ @SvarfvarSea @shuma0963 @FistsFaceBrace @KimDriver11 @MarkJLittlewood It did , but they've mad as bad a mistake or worse and have overtightened. NOT in terms of the policy rate but in terms of liquidity.
There has been insufficient money growth to hit the inflation target in the medium run .And it goes on .
#Deflation2425
@arthur_eckart @mike_lucullus @Martin24105 @Chr1s_not_a_bot @StewartButton @carygold @RockySarni8180 @PerKurowski @Davidmetroland @ThomasSirianni2 @janineyve @NaomiLWood @QE4_Countdown @jbhearn @BlogPickled @ANGTraders @helgy2 @David11359148 @MichaelJEakin1 @HarrisSamaras @HenricCont @shuma0963 @Ellis_Greenwood @misterp55 @worstall @CascadiaEric @cutupcado @NumbersMean @stefan_demetz @SwearingForex @Roblev0 @TrevchenkoTh3rd @NC798322 @JonnyMnemonic22 @tomS95506859 @DilipShah_ @SvarfvarSea @ShaytanTruth @FistsFaceBrace @bankofengland @YouTube @elonmusk @Bemused21 Beloved Fed ,don't pay any attention to broad money ,so they are once again,behind the curve !
#teamtransitory
#StickyInflation
Based on the p curve ,all bollocks.
It's all about money .
#TheGreatDisinflation
will continue.
#Deflation2425 b4 a pick up in inflation 25/26
Quite !
If you follow money trends you knew it when broad money fell below 5% in early 2022 and kept on falling
https://t.co/yROQCj9Zw2
#TheGreatDisinflation & #Deflation2425 remains the near-term risk
Stunning drop in Treasury yields over the past week. 10-year yield (white) is back to where it was at end-2023. 2-year yield (orange) is now below. All this is a reminder that inflation hawks have had it wrong for well over a year. Inflation is now truly yesterday's story...
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