Top Tweets for #ForecastFail
Oil forecasts are consistently wrong. The EIA predicted $20-$30 oil in 2005, it hit $147. In 2014, consensus was $95, it crashed to $53. Even in 2020, predictions of oversupply led to $130 oil. Their average forecast error is 30% #OilMarket #ForecastFail #Investing
A 42-point gap between energy returns and crude says the majors are durable cash machines, not price takers.
Markets are voting that oil is the economy—and “peak demand” looks like wishful thinking.
#OOTT #Oil #Brent #EnergyMarkets #OilOnWater #ForecastFail
Morgan Stanley: "so far this year, the [MSCI Europe] Energy sector has returned 27% (in USD) whilst oil prices have fallen 15% - a spread of 42 points, the strongest divergence in 30+ years. Feedback suggests investors are increasingly prepared to look through near-term commodity weakness."
The “oil-on-water” proof-of-glut flopped.
Brent’s in the $60s, not the $40s/$30s
Complex systems don't fit one-dimensional thinking.
#OOTT #Oil #Brent #EnergyMarkets #OilOnWater #ForecastFail
The year is almost over. Oil prices have not declined to the $40s or $30s as several analysts predicted. The oil-on-water story has been out there for a few weeks, yet Brent prices remain in the $60s!
2/5 🎲 “False certainty” misled markets
📉📈 Lagarde argues forecasting must explore a wide range of outcomes, not just the baseline. She highlighted past errors—forecasting 5.5% vs. actual 8% inflation.
#MonetaryPolicy #ForecastFail #Eurozone
IMD: Heavy rain expected in Delhi today.
Delhi: Bhai, I’m getting roasted like a tandoori chicken in this 45°C sun wearing a raincoat. ☀️🌧️
Do they actually try to be right or just spin a lucky wheel?”
#DelhiWeather #IMDPredictions #ForecastFail #DelhiRains
When you’re looking forward to celebrating #NewYearsEve in Las Vegas but we’ve got rain & wind in the forecast… ⛈️ Follow @News3LV for more local updates and @natwxdesk for national weather! 🌤️ #LasVegas #WeatherFail #NYE #News3NYE #NewYears #ForecastFail #NYE2023 #NYEParty
Well @12News @12NewsKrystle ,so much for that “renegade raindrop”! It’s raining cats and dogs in Scottsdale! #forecastfail
We were trying to get our walk in before the rain started late morning. #forecastfail Now Feefee’s fur looks like she has a perm and I look like a partial drowned rat. 🤣
Forgot to mention those scattered showers lol #forecastfail
Thought with all the winter storm warnings and dire predictions of 5-6inches of snow I'd be seeing snowflakes instead of... drizzle? It's not even freezing drizzle. Just drizzle. #forecastfail Oh well. At least I can still walk the dog.
Big storm coming to Ontario this weekend....we’re either getting no snow or 7 feet of snow! LOL #ForecastFail😂
Officials cancelled daughter’s cross-country meet LAST NIGHT. Beautiful out. This is why you wait until the day of to make a decision. #forecastfail
When the forecast is wrong you get rewarded with no crowds, no lines, and the all the fun to yourself! #ForecastFail https://t.co/trFV6l2t5f
Clouds and showers holding temps down BIG TIME today!
#ForecastFail
Afternoon Temp Check - 4pm across the @cbsaustin area. Forecast -> https://t.co/7Dainv4mOG #atxwx #cbsaustinwx
Bomb Cyclone did not detonate here.
#forecastfail
So astrolger of #SaravanaBhawan's owner advised him to kill his employee to marry his wife but he couldn't foresee the life sentencing as a consequence? #ForecastFail
Ummm. Things better pick up pace here. What happened with that three to five inches for my neck of the woods N & W? #ForecastFail. ***INCLUDING MY OWN***
@gwenfox5dc @TonyPannWBAL @hbwx @ABC7Brian @somaratheodore
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