Top Tweets for #TermPremium
Bond Investors' Risk: Inflation & Market Volatility Insights
#BondInvesting #InflationExpectations #TermPremium #MarketAnalysis #FinancialMarkets #RiskManagement #USValuations #EconomicInsights #InvestmentStrategy #Finance
the MMMFs are only too willing to load up the t bills given the still very attractive yield available. More over the long ends are still very iffy precisely for the reasons stated above.
#QRA, #UST, #termpremium
4/4
Good, clear analysis of the movement we've seen recently in #bond #markets -- specifically, the rather steep increase in yields on longer dated #treasuries.
#FOMC #FederalReserve #inflation #TermPremium #yieldcurve #yield
https://t.co/1vW8fGqVJR
(There are no #BondVigilantes in sight)
A model-based estimate of the nom UST #TermPremium remained low relative to its long-run history despite edging up through March, chart @federalreserve https://t.co/BMgtAQlkst
Fiscal overdosing into an election comes with a price - it’s not free.
#InflationExpectations
#TermPremium
30-Year breakeven inflation making a new YTD high of 2.36. Still smh that this traded as low as 2.16 at year-end.
Many bond pundits warned that #yields would have to be structurally higher because of the return of the #termpremium. The term premium is back at -0.32%, so I don't know...
OUT NOW⚡️ Our latest #TermPremium Tracker suggests that although there was some volatility in the UK term premium between the Sept and Nov MPC meetings, overall, it signals that investors are feeling confident about the short-term interest rates' path📈⬇️
https://t.co/q3Pclvu07i
#Biden,yr #deficit PROBLEM=f(#TermPremium(UNCERTAINTY)@#Congress,#Fed #InterestRates;#HealthCare #costs;#revenue,#IRS)∴CUTdealW/#McHenry 4 #Speaker;MAKEcase4 3% #Fed #inflation TARGETbeforeUpitchHEALTHcarePLAN&FOCUS #Bidenomics #narrative@UNCERT.Uwasted2022,SAVE@LEASTt' #message
#Biden,#recession'sMUCH>#risk NOWthan #inflation.#LongTerm #Treasury #InterestRate #yield reflectsUNCERTAINTY(#Congress chaos,#commodities,#debt)>than #inflation&yr #deficit PROBLEMS're>#revenue,#HealthCare COSTSthanSPENDINGbutUdon'tHAVE #government #narrative 2COUNTER #MAGA's…
.@DLineCap's Jeffrey Mayberry and Eric Dhall break down a mixed market week (Oct. 16-20), listen in on Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell and break down hot topic “term premium.”
#Fed #Macro #TermPremium #FOMC
https://t.co/lb9jbKVBQC
When #inflation surged in 2021 and 10y UST yield rose much more than the 2y yield, #ACM model showed essentially no change in interest-rate expectations over the next decade—and therefore a big increase in the #TermPremium - chart @WSJecon https://t.co/FSPbZNmYOa
#Bears argue QT & debt issuance are driving yields higher. That is why #TermPremium is rising. This move, apparently, will be the thing that drives us into #recession - But the premise is wrong: There is no relationship b/w bond issuance and the term premium, chart @darioperkins
#TermPremium is the extra dollop of yield investors get for holding long-dated USTs, as compensation for taking on interest rate risk. Think of it as the difference in yield b/w a 10y UST and rolling over the expected 1y rate 10x over a decade, chart @FT https://t.co/sR9f20OzrB
A surge in global #BondYields threatens trouble. @TheEconomist
#TermPremium
Inflation and fiscal deficits 👌🏻
https://t.co/8oLqFDtAgO
Those who are still hoping that #inflation will decline further and that #bonds #termpremium will stay that low should better acknowledge that #inflation risks are tilted to the upside and avoid long-dated #UST in the foreseeable future.
In a stickier for longer #inflation environment, higher #termpremium is required, and the market will price it one way or the other…
Get ready for more #bond bloodbath in the coming weeks…
Given #stickierforlonger ##inflation and #structural #deficits, the probable outcome is an increase in the #termpremium.
Despite remaining negative, the #TermPremium, reflecting the additional compensation investors seek for holding longer-term #bonds, has risen due to concerns about rising #inflation, #liquidity, and #supply risks linked to extended #US #Treasuries. ♨️🔥
📈⚡#TermPremium Upswing
Last week, the #Yields and #curve increased in #bearsteepening, driven by #BOJ's #YCC policy shift, #Fitch #downgrade, and heightened #Treasury #borrowing and issuance demands.
🔮💸#Inflation expectations have been rising for some time, and reflecting this #termpremium is beginning to rise, taking #yields higher with it. This means that the immaculate #disinflation is over and the #US #CPI is set to rebound from here.
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