eagleleo

Ex-McKinsey, US Stock & Option. Co-founder of a family office

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

@ShanghaoJin 这个到来的时候是不是anthropic/openai 会爆炸但是云厂商能够涨起来？

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

Lol, I guess Mark just fomo of AI revolution🤣. I tend to believe AI for meta is just another metaverse for Meta. Looking back, the right strategy for Meta is probably be like Apple, which does not spend heavily on capex but partner with a model provider to enhance the core business.

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

$MSFT or $META will likely be the first to fold.

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

HyperScaler Prisoner’s Dilemma

The AI spending race is starting to look like a classic Prisoner’s Dilemma.

$MSFT, $META, $AMZN, and $GOOGL would probably all benefit if they collectively slowed capex growth and focused on profits. But nobody wants to be the first to blink and risk falling behind.

As long as the arms race continues, $MU and $SNDK are the obvious beneficiaries.

The risk? Wall Street keeps upgrading memory stocks as if AI spending can only go up. If the hyperscalers ever decide that enough is enough, the same consensus that pushed estimates higher could get crushed just as quickly.

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

No. Public cloud business is actually hard to enter. You need infra, 24/7 customer external client support, sales channel etc. The only cloud business I imagine that could work woule be the neocloud model which is just hardware and datacenter and nothing else. If you think about the xAl and anthropic deal, I think that could be possible. But that is not the traditional public cloud business.

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

@bearmoon28 because $META doesn't have a public cloud business and cannot easily resell the capex(data center, nvdia cards/racks) to others and $msft has suffered a lot in term of stock price. Imagine #msft cut the capex and use the cash for stock buy backs.

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

@xzzzjpl 韩正瑟瑟发抖

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

Uncertainty is now being priced out. 不确定性真正被定价完了。

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

The worst thing that can happen to the market right now is actually a peace deal.

A real peace deal gets you one 3% up day.

“Sources say a peace deal is very close” gets you a 3% up day every week.

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

@ivanalog_com 直到AI能替人坐牢背锅，和物理世界链接的软件都有价值。用Adobe做出了不合适的平面设计坐牢的概率是很低的，但Autodesk做出错的建筑设计是真的要坐牢的。

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

这个是真牛逼，巴别塔建成了

[小互 @xiaohu]

今天被很多人忽略的大新闻

Google 发布实时翻译模型 ：Gemini 3.5 Live Translate

- 能在70多种语言之间做到边听边译
- 同时保留说话人的语调、节奏和音高
- 不用等说完才翻，全程只比说话人慢几秒
- 自动滤除噪音，嘈杂环境也能用
- Google Translate App 新增「听筒模式」贴耳即听翻译
- 开发者可通过 Gemini Live API 和 Google AI Studio 直接调用

自动语言检测：

不需要提前告诉模型「我说的是中文，帮我翻成英文」。你直接说，它自己判断你在说什么语言，自动翻成目标语言。

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

大模型现在的个股分成两派。O派和A派。
O派OpenAI和 $MSFT 已经 $NVDA 和 $ORCL 。
A派 $AMZN 和半个 $GOOG
A在上半年靠着CC 把ARR达到了前所未有的高度连带把Google 和AMAZON也给拉了。但现在我已经观察到有从CC迁移到Codex的趋势了，A家下一个月的ARR很难想象会继续保持这个增速。O派的春天是不远了

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

真疯啊，准备看大烟花

[李志 | Rational Investing @LZRationalnvest]

SpaceX的 IPO盛宴接近疯狂了。

ProShares推出了SpaceX的两倍做多ETF，股票代码 $SPCF。

预计与SpaceX 股票正式上市日6月12日同步推出，衍生商品竟然能与标的资产在同一天上市啊😂

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

杀CME和CBOE是完全没有理由的，真的指望Kalshi和Hyperliquid能干交易所的活么。我在CME上面交易的的原油是真的可以去Oklahoma拿到现货的，Hyperliquid 怎么除了瞎比整一个价格出来还能干啥？CBOE上面的那些期权不仅仅是靠交易所，还靠许许多多的做市商提供流动性，perp和期权完全不是一个量级的玩法。

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

Space X 135刀的IPO价格真是吓人，根据招股书他的3个主要业务。
1 .Space 也就是发射火箭，每股的营收是$0.31
2. Connectivity 也就是starlink，每股营收是$0.87
3. AI, 就是X和XAI，grok这些，每股营收是$0.24
加起来是$1.43 每股，注意这个1.42 的营收不是利润。也就是说$135美元对应的95倍P/S😂

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

SpaceX may be one of the greatest companies ever built. But at a $135 IPO price, the stock is already pricing in the REALLY bull case: ~$1.7T EV, 91x 2025 revenue, and near-flawless AI + Starship execution.

Great company. Hard security. Not advice.

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

@Nicole_yang88 上城区哈哈哈哈

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

牛逼

[Tibo @thsottiaux]

Don't just reset Codex rate limits for fun, it costs money.
Don't just reset Codex rate limits for fun, it costs money.

... but the vibes are good ...

I have reset Codex rate limits for ALL paid plans to celebrate a good week and allow everyone to build more with GPT-5.5. Enjoy

[Tibo @thsottiaux]

Don't just reset Codex rate limits for fun, it costs money.
Don't just reset Codex rate limits for fun, it costs money.

... but the vibes are good ...

I have reset Codex rate limits for ALL paid plans to celebrate a good week and allow everyone to build more with GPT-5.5. Enjoy

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

@ZeeContrarian1 Put ratio spread in expires in 3 weeks ?

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

@ZeeContrarian1 This is very true for now until a big market shock happen then the option seller needs to sell the stock to hedge against the option they sold. The gamma flip will accelerate the downside. For now I think as long as Trump does not send groun troop there is no major downside risk

[eagleleo @interpret_cn]

@Sinda1118 所以我要谢谢您啊。我没去做甲醇啊，老老实实的去做PX和PTA了呀。听了您的话赚到钱了。