🤖💡 Useful way to think about AI tools:
👉 Initially tune your AI tools to solve specific tasks, with an escalation path to a human
📈 Over time, as these tasks accumulate, they can represent the workload of a full person.
https://t.co/d2meN1tFJr
@gregisenberg@gregisenberg what are you using for your shared context layer?
I strongly agree with what you’ve laid out in your diagrams… very interested in what that layer looks like in terms of technical choice
Voice AI is getting so good over the phone that it’s basically becoming a permissionless API to the enterprise.
Enterprises can restrict APIs, but they can’t restrict incoming calls.
OpenTable won’t give you API access to make/modify/cancel a reservation? A voice agent can just call and do it.
The telephone may be amongst the most underrated developer platforms of 2025.
Waymo just dropped the beginning of the end.
This data, and the way this data will keep improving, is the reason why future generations won't be allowed to manually drive cars on public roads.
The future of personal transportation is 100% autonomous
This is an important observation. My preference is to use 3rd party solutions where possible (go faster and have a bigger team build a dedicated solution). The incentive to "cheap out" on the underlying LLM needs to be watched / mitigated.
The problem with using SaaS vendors with their own AI solutions is that their incentives are to use cheap models, as little reasoning as possible & to stick with outdated prompting & RAG strategies than updating them as AI improves
Not all vendors succumb to temptation, many do.
~40% of daily code written at Coinbase is AI-generated. I want to get it to >50% by October.
Obviously it needs to be reviewed and understood, and not all areas of the business can use AI-generated code. But we should be using it responsibly as much as we possibly can.
I get asked this every time we buy a company for around 1x ARR. Easy answer: 1x is not a lowball, market sets the price. Longer answer requires a quick lesson in PE fundamentals (plus a pro trip).
Two types of PE firms:
• Buy‑to‑flip (Flippers): Enterprise value (EV) based exit valuation and timing - they talk EBITDA and “market multiples.”
• Built‑to‑last (Builders): EV based on sustainable cash generation; they talk “free cash flow.”
Most buyout firms are flippers:
• Bet on selling higher later
• Funding and ops focused at driving exit value.
• Huge returns when it works, especially when levered.
• Hidden secret: they don’t control the outcome. Market shifts can blow up terminal value (AI crushing SaaS multiples, increased interest rates), and bad things happen if company is not sold before debt matures (the greater fool theory at work).
We are builders:
• We create value for customers and generate cash for ourselves while doing so.
• We control the outcome.
• We decouple future growth investment decisions from EV of the as-is company. It’s a different set of decisions… great if it pencils out for long‑term cash generation; otherwise we skip it and don’t chase hype.
Why we win at 1x:
We win 1x deals because we play a different game. Flippers won’t bid without a clear path to a big exit; we bid whenever we see a path to durable cash generation. Very different lenses.
My soapbox:
The entire ecosystem is mesmerized by the flippers: entrepreneurs, VC, PE, bankers, lenders, blogosphere, everybody. Sometimes I feel like Neo in the matrix, seeing something completely different than everybody else: ignore the exit and focus on the cash flows.
Paying 1x for a company and running it “rule of 20” for 10 years only yields a 15% IRR.
• But, most buyers target better than 15% returns (we do), especially because of the execution risk.
• And, transforming a broken business into even a “rule of 20” (with durable cash generation) is harder, costlier, and slower than you think.
• Luckily (for the seller), we are experts at this transformation.
Pro tip: Know what the business is worth to the existing owners (never sells). Upload the achievable forecast into an LLM and ask for the present value of the cash flows with no terminal value. I wish more sellers and bankers spent 30 sec and did this (it’s not hard, see the image below).
Conclusion: Rewire your worldview, 1x is not a lowball.
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I probably shouldn't be sharing the exact system for free...
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here's what happens when you deploy it:
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the math is stupid simple:
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that's $16,600 saved monthly
the system includes:
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this is the exact system building 7-figure operational infrastructure
and you're getting it for free
Follow + RT + comment "MCP" & I'll send you the FULL setup guide tonight
don't sleep on this
every week you wait is 30+ hours of manual work you'll never get back
@Scobleizer@Waymo Have used Waymo about a dozen times now. I much prefer it to driving myself. Am genuinely excited for Waymos (or equivalent) to be good enough for all types of rides, and to give up my car forever.
Am not yet comfortable with the idea of highway Waymo rides
Not to be a fanboy, but if you're not using @genspark_ai , you are missing out.
Also... sounds like they have something new coming this week.
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There’s this metaphor in Chinese business strategy that you see all the time, even though you never really hear it in Western business schools (at least I haven't). It’s called the “catfish effect,” and it supposedly comes from a Norwegian fishing practice.
Apparently, when fishermen would transport sardines in tanks, a lot of them would die along the way because they’d stop moving and run out of oxygen. But if you put a single live catfish into the tank, the sardines would stay active, swimming constantly to avoid getting eaten, and more of them would survive the journey. The catfish made the environment slightly hostile, which weirdly made it more survivable.
This story kind of floated around in Western motivational books for a while, but it never really stuck in business theory the way things like disruptive innovation or lean operations did. In China though, the idea of the catfish effect, or 鲶鱼效应, became pretty popular in corporate training settings and state-aligned business commentary, and it's pretty obvious that a main reason for that is cultural. There’s just more acceptance of discomfort as a developmental tool, and less hesitation to design pressure into the system from the top down. It’s not “disruption” as a natural market phenomenon, it’s more like managed agitation. Like, let’s introduce a little stress on purpose, because stagnation is the bigger risk here.
And yeah, I'm sure some will disagree with this example, but in China, Tesla's arrival is considered a clear-cut case of the catfish effect in policy. At the time, the government was pretty frustrated with its domestic EV scene. The subsidy program, although improved from the decade prior, had still led to all kinds of abuse and fraud, with a bunch of half-baked companies just trying to cash in on government money without building anything truly innovative. It was getting embarrassing.
So the government said, okay, fine. Let’s put a catfish in the water. They gave Tesla this rare set of approvals -- full ownership of their China operations, fast-tracked factory deals, land, logistics support -- the works. It was a provocation. Like, hey all of y'all Chinese companies, you guys need to be way faster cuz here comes the catfish. Swim! And sure, it wasn't all because of Tesla, but the pace of innovation has indeed picked up since then, in operations, design, user experience, everything.
This is where it really differs from how Western business theory tends to approach competition. In the US, you see a lot more disruptive innovation. In China, competition can be curated, introduced, even welcomed -- not to destroy the domestic players, but to get them moving again.
Of course, it doesn’t always work. Sometimes the catfish is too strong, or the sardines were already too weak. And sometimes you get eaten, LOL. But it's an interesting question -- is that tank you're in the best environment for you? Are you swimming because you want to, or because you finally have to?
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