Tough as teak!
Dappled Light loomed large but Kodi Fire was not going down without a fight and stays on well to return to winning ways at @Chepstow_Racing...
@cbhills | @_JasonWatson
🇺🇸Jensen Huang is out there living his best life, dancing at the NVIDIA all-employee celebration event in Taipei, Taiwan
You'd never guess he's the CEO 😂
“I’m the space plumber, I’m proud to call myself the space plumber.”
Mission specialists like @Astro_Christina train for all roles so they can jump in wherever they’re needed. Sometimes that means fixing vital machinery, like the spacecraft toilet.
I’m taking magic mushrooms and livestreaming it on sunday.
+ 6 hours Live
+ 10am PST, Sun 30th
+ 5.24 g mushrooms, dried
+ 28 mg of active psilocybin
+ Strain B+ (psilocybin cubensis)
+ 2nd dose (3 total across 3 months)
We’re measuring 249 biomarkers to determine the effect on longevity. This is the most quantified psychedelic experiment in history.
Guest appearances from:
+ @Grimezsz DJ'ing a Live set
+ @HamiltonMorris and @gjurvetson discuss psychedelics
+ @MrBeast@naval@Benioff@friedberg are being good friends and checking in on me during the experience
Moderated by: goth girl @_katetolo and OG @ashleevance
The science suggests psilocybin may be a longevity therapy:
+ Extended lifespan in mice
+ Preserved telomeres
+ Extended replicative lifespan in human cells
+ Reduced systemic inflammation markers
+ Promotes anti-inflammatory environment in the brain
+ Increases brain entropy
+ Breaks rigid brain patterns and increases creativity
+ Boosts long-term cognition and flexibility
+ Protects neurons and microglia
+ Reshapes gut microbiome for improved mental health
+ Improved sexual satisfaction in depressed people
We’re measuring:
+ 249 independent biomarkers
+ 29 vials of blood
+ brain scans
+ urine, stool, saliva, fertility
+ multi-omics profiling: DNA, epigenetics, metabolism, hormones, microbiome, proteins, cognition
+ biological age: epigenetic, telomeres, brain
Come watch me trip balls.
I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift…
This comes from Global Macro Investor (GMI) and a deep, long-running body of research developed by @RaoulGMI and myself.
Many of you already know The Everything Code, which is our framework for understanding the macro landscape and why major central banks are debasing their currencies to manage aging demographics and overwhelming debt loads.
I call this a gift because these four charts, while only scratching the surface of The Everything Code, give you the big-picture context you actually need in moments like this.
They stop you from getting lost in every Bitcoin pullback and explain why Raoul and I never panic, even when, to borrow one of his expressions, everyone’s acting like monkeys throwing poo at each other.
Once you understand The Everything Code, you stop trading short-term noise and expand your time horizon. You cannot unsee it.
The starting point is what we call The Magic Formula:
GDP growth = population growth + productivity growth + debt growth.
Population growth and productivity growth have been falling for decades. Debt growth is the only thing filling the gap.
The private sector has been deleveraging since 2008, mainly households, but debt levels are still around 120% of GDP. The public sector sits at roughly the same level.
Here’s the problem…
If the government is running debt at 100% of GDP and the private sector is sitting on another 100%, and for simple math we call rates 2% even though they are really closer to 4%, then the entire 2% trend growth of the economy is being consumed by servicing private-sector debts. That is a completely unproductive use of GDP. And then there’s the issue of public-sector debts. There’s just not enough organic growth to service the existing debt load.
To understand why this dynamic persists, you need demographics.
Birth rates peaked in the late 1950s and have been declining ever since. This shows up about sixteen years later in the labor force participation rate as each generation enters the workforce (chart 1).
That means the labor force participation rate is not going to rise any time soon. It is set to keep drifting lower. This is a structural problem.
Aging populations, falling birth rates, and rapidly expanding automation make the backdrop even more deflationary. AI and robotics are replacing humans at scale, and we are only at the beginning. This reinforces the need for ongoing stimulus to keep the system functioning.
With weak population growth and sluggish productivity, the only way to keep GDP expanding is through debt.
Now here’s where it gets interesting…
Government debt growth is completely offsetting the demographic decline and policymakers know exactly what they are doing (chart 2).
And what happens next?
All debt growth in excess of GDP gets monetized (chart 3).
Basically, since 2008, magic money has effectively been paying the interest. Governments issue new debt to cover old interest, and once rates fall enough, central banks absorb it onto their balance sheets.
So to wrap this up, demographics drive the decline in the labor force. Governments offset that decline with more debt. That debt eventually gets monetized through quantitative easing (QE) style operations, not always directly by the Fed, but through the coordinated ecosystem of the Fed, the Treasury, and the banking system. And the bottom line is that there’s still a massive wall of interest that needs to be monetized, far more than GDP can ever cover. Liquidity is literally the only game in town.
And what thrives in a world of perpetual debasement? Bitcoin (chart 4).
I know this correction has been painful, but it’s all part of the journey. These periods feel brutal in the moment, then they fade and the trend resumes. This too shall pass…
To quote Walter White from Breaking Bad, later echoed by @LynAldenContact, nothing stops this train.
MOAR COWBELL (liquidity) = number go up over time. Zoom out and be more bullish…
Last November, our MD Kelly had the honour of attending the @FilmTVCharity’s 100th Anniversary celebration at Buckingham Palace! 🎬👑
The event celebrated a century of incredible work supporting those #behindthescenes, read more below...
https://t.co/7ahFZDEZxm
This will go down in history as the Great Shakeout of 2025, and I'd like to offer some perspective, some positivity and hope for people in the crypto market here.
Lots of people are clearly hurting now, we've been delivered multiple punches recently and lots of people are showing signs of losing faith, some partially and some altogether. Losing money is painful and it is without doubt an emotional game.
Do bare in mind that everything is only ever a paper win or loss until you have actually sold.
The greatest victims in this market are those who think they can outsmart or guess where the market is going by leveraging and longing or shorting the market.
Trading with leverage in the crypto market is financial suicide - just stop it, it is the fastest way for people to destroy their chances within what is the greatest wealth accumulation opportunity of all time.
I have always remembered Raoul Pal's ( @RaoulGMI ) position on it, leveraging has always been a key part of his @RealVision's "Don't Fuck This Up" thesis, and today those words couldn't be more abundantly clear.
Lots of people are crying about market manipulation, yet they are out there placing leverage, long or short positions. Is this not a bit like playing poker and letting everyone know what your cards are before they lay their hands?
All we are doing here is allowing the exchanges, the market makers, the institutions and the whales to enter the market with far greater financial power to counter positions and liquidate them, which is what is repeatedly happening. I've no idea how people do not recognise this.
For everyone who are shouting the market is over, or are sitting there fearing as much, just take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
We are on the verge of a solid rate cutting cycle. Trillions of dollars of debt across the world needs to be refinanced. QT is about to end which will be followed buy QE, massive liquidity is going to be flooding in. The entire global monetary system is in the process of being migrated on-chain. No bear market has ever been born out of fear, it comes from peak euphoria, which we clearly haven't even touched. We have key regulatory acts that are on the cusp of being announced. Financial institutions are buying crypto. Actual countries are buying cryptos. ETF's are being approved. We are in the glorious position of being able to take part in what is the greatest financial revolution of all time - let that sink in.
The reality is the crypto space has never, ever looked this bullish before and what we are seeing now will go down as the greatest shakeout. Don't become a victim of it.
I have always said that the key to maximising the gains in this market is to buy solid utility projects with real fundamentals that will attract real adoption. Buy with conviction, hold and do nothing. Shut out the noise, and simply do nothing. It is also the key to riding the multiple drawdowns that are characteristic within every bull cycle, and now is no different.
Crypto isn't for the faint-hearted, you have to program yourself differently when navigating this market.
Those who overestimate their own intelligence, who are constantly buying in and selling out, changing lanes, thinking they can predict the market, taking long and short positions and chasing dick-driven greed through insane leveraging will invariably become the fallen soldiers of the market, and will ruin their chances in the greatest wealth accumulation opportunity of all time. And those who buy, hold, shut out the noise, and do nothing, will most likely achieve the success they set out to achieve.
I can't emphasise this enough but for anyone who is looking to educate themselves and to gain an advantage in navigating the crypto space, and who want to develop an understanding of the things that truly drives asset prices, take a look at joining Real Vision @RealVision, it is by far the best thing I ever did.
The team are incredible and it has a fantastic community for you to connect with. The information and insights they part with is pound-for-pound the most valuable alpha and intelligence that you could possibly absorb. The intelligence and understanding you will gain will help you to sail through these shit storms with a far greater calmness, to take a step back from the chaos and shut out the noise.
As always, stay calm and don't fuck this up.
Holders will outperform traders.